On the emergence of the energy transition

Kraan, O.D.E. (2019)

Doctoral Thesis

The energy system is at the heart of two of the greatest challenges of the 21st century: decreasing CO2 emissions to meet the ambitions of the Paris agreement while fulfilling the growing energy demand associated with the economic aspirations of a growing world population. The required energy transition has to emerge from the interaction between social actors, the economy, technology and the eco-system of our planet. That is the subject of this dissertation which explores the question how individual drivers and the interactions between actors influence the path and pace of the developing energy transition.

To analyse the dynamics of interactions between actors, a relatively new modeling method, agent-based modeling, has been applied, with which actors, agents, as computer entities can be simulated. By simulating realistic actor behavior, the dynamics between individual motives and emergent collective action could be analysed.

This has led to new insights; simulating investors in the electricity market for example has shown that a fully liberalized electricity market, even with strong CO2, will not ensure complete decarbonisation of the electricity system.

All this has led to recommendations for public and private actors and more general conclusions about the use of models in general.

• Energy transition
• Energy scenarios
• Agent-based modelling
• Simulation
• Electricity market
• Energy metrics
• Solar fuels
• Decarbonisation
• Energy system modelling
• Critical transitions

• All authors: Kraan, O.D.E.
• Supervisor: Kramer, G.J.; Nikolic, I.
• Co-supervisor: Koning, V.
• Committee: Bodegom, P.M. van; Tukker, A.; Kleijn, R.; Herder, P.; Vries, B. de; Fumagalli, E.M.
• Qualification: Doctor (dr.)
• Awarding Institution: Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Science, Leiden University
• Date: 2019-04-25
• ISBN (print): 9789402812992
• Sponsorship: Royal Dutch Shell