Intelligence for a complex environment: transforming traditional intelligence with insights from complexity science and field research on NATO

Spoor, B.E.P. (2025)

Doctoral Thesis

This study asserts that complexity science, the study of systems that are complex and adaptive, holds many promises for examining the threats in the operational environment as well as intelligence organisations themselves. While this may seem a logical deduction, the study of intelligence has yet to adopt the ideas and methods of complexity science. Therefore this study aims to seek insights from complexity science and to apply these to intelligence. In doing so it strives for a theoretical and also an empirical contribution to the study of intelligence. The latter is formed by case study research into how NATO’s Multinational Corps Northeast (MNC NE) organises its intelligence. This is guided with the research question How can complexity science advance intelligence transformation?
The research shows that complexity science offers alternative insights, tested in broader military sciences and other related fields, to improve intelligence performance. With complexity, a new intelligence paradigm is formulated, and contrasted to the traditional intelligence paradigm. To apply this, three design properties (requisite variety, sensemaking, and organisational learning) show how concepts from complexity can help to move from the traditional to the new, complex intelligence paradigm.

• Intelligence
• Military intelligence
• Complexity
• Complexity science
• Complexity theory
• NATO
• Intelligence cycle
• Intelligence theory
• Intelligence paradigm
• Multinational Corps Northeast

• All authors: Spoor, B.E.P.
• Supervisor: Rietjens, S.J.H.
• Co-supervisor: Rothman, M.G.D.
• Committee: Caminada, K.; Osinga, F.P.B.; Ducheine, P.A.L.; Fenema, P.C. van; Hillebrand, C.; Valk, G.G. de
• Qualification: Doctor (dr.)
• Awarding Institution: Institute of Security and Global Affairs (ISGA), Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs, Leiden University
• Date: 2025-01-15
• ISBN (print): 9789493124417
• Sponsorship: Koninklijke Landmacht/Ministerie van Defensie