This dissertation compares divination in ancient Greece to divinatory practices in Republican Rome and Neo-Assyrian Mesopotamia. Divination is the human production and interpretation of signs which... Show moreThis dissertation compares divination in ancient Greece to divinatory practices in Republican Rome and Neo-Assyrian Mesopotamia. Divination is the human production and interpretation of signs which were thought to have come from the supernatural – the signs could be concerned with past, present or future. The process of divination consists of three elements: homo divinans, sign and text. These three elements are systematically compared, after which divination is discussed in its relation to time and uncertainty.********************************************************************************Commercial edition available at Brill Publishers, ISBN 978-90-04-25239-4 (hbk) ; 978-90-04-46422-3 (pbk); 978-90-04-25630-9 (e-book)https://brill.com/view/title/24193 Show less
Bendien, E.; Kruijthoff, D.J.; Kooi, C. van der; Glas, G.; Abma, T. 2023
This article addresses cases of remarkable recoveries related to healing after prayer. We sought to investigate how people who experienced remarkable recoveries re-construct and give meaning to... Show moreThis article addresses cases of remarkable recoveries related to healing after prayer. We sought to investigate how people who experienced remarkable recoveries re-construct and give meaning to these experiences, and examine the role that epistemic frameworks available to them, play in this process. Basing ourselves on horizontal epistemology and using grounded theory, we conducted this qualitative empirical research in the Netherlands in 2016–2021. It draws on 14 in-depth interviews. These 14 cases were selected from a group of 27 cases, which were evaluated by a medical assessment team at the Amsterdam University Medical Centre. Each of the participants had experienced a remarkable recovery during or after prayer. The analysis of the interviews, which is based on the grounded theory approach, resulted in three overarching themes, placing possible explanations of the recoveries within (1) the medical discourse, (2) biographical discourse, and (3) a discourse of spiritual and religious transformation. Juxtaposition of these explanatory frameworks provides a way to understand better the transformative experience that underlies remarkable recoveries. Uncertainty regarding an explanation is a component of knowing and can facilitate a dialogue between various domains of knowledge. Show less
The decentralization of social care in the Netherlands has had a major impact on the professionals working in this field. This dissertation examines this impact by specifically focusing on the... Show moreThe decentralization of social care in the Netherlands has had a major impact on the professionals working in this field. This dissertation examines this impact by specifically focusing on the cognitive uncertainty experiences of social care professionals. It shows that cognitive uncertainty is a multi-faceted concept that covers different domains of the work and can have multiple sources. Contrary to the frequently expressed view in the literature on bureaucracy, this dissertation shows that rules do not reduce cognitive uncertainty. Leadership of team leaders, in contrast, can reduce cognitive uncertainty experiences of professionals.Moreover, leadership plays a key role in managing cognitive uncertainty. When properly managed, cognitive uncertainty can prove highly valuable as it can spur innovation and thus contribute to achieving the goals set in the decentralization of social care in the Netherlands. Show less
Low-value care is increasingly recognized as a global problem that places strain on healthcare systems and has no quick fix. Verkerk et al. have identified key factors promoting low-value care on a... Show moreLow-value care is increasingly recognized as a global problem that places strain on healthcare systems and has no quick fix. Verkerk et al. have identified key factors promoting low-value care on a national level, proposed strategies to address these and create a healthcare system facilitating delivery of high-value care. In this commentary, we reflect on the results of Verkerk et al. and argue that uncertainty has a crucial role when it comes to reducing low value care. This uncertainty is reflected in lack of a shared view between stakeholders, with clear criteria and thresholds on what constitutes low-value care, and a cross-cutting theme related to the key factors identified. We suggest to work on such a shared view of low-value care and different from implementation efforts to explicitly address uncertainty and its driving cognitive biases grounded in human decision making psychology, to reduce low-value care. Show less
Background Psychopathy has repeatedly been linked to disturbed associative learning from aversive events (i.e., threat conditioning). Optimal threat conditioning requires the generation of internal... Show moreBackground Psychopathy has repeatedly been linked to disturbed associative learning from aversive events (i.e., threat conditioning). Optimal threat conditioning requires the generation of internal representations of stimulus–outcome contingencies and the rate with which these may change. Because mental representations are imperfect, there will always be uncertainty about the accuracy of representations in the brain (i.e., representational uncertainty). However, it remains unclear 1) to what extent threat conditioning is susceptible to different types of uncertainty in representations about contingencies during the acquisition phase and 2) how representational uncertainty relates to psychopathic features. Methods A computational model was applied to functional neuroimaging data to estimate uncertainty in representations of contingencies (CoUn) and the rate of change of contingencies (RUn), respectively, from brain activation during the acquisition phase of threat conditioning in 132 adolescents at risk of developing antisocial personality profiles. Next, the associations between these two types of representational uncertainty and psychopathy-related dimensions were examined. Results The left and right amygdala activations were associated with CoUn, while the bilateral insula and the right amygdala were associated with RUn. Different patterns of relationships were found between psychopathic features and each type of uncertainty. Callous-unemotional traits and impulsive-irresponsible traits uniquely predicted increased CoUn, while only impulsive-irresponsible traits predicted increased RUn. Conclusions The findings suggest that 1) the insula and amygdala differ in how these regions are affected by different types of representational uncertainty during threat conditioning and 2) CoUn and RUn have different patterns of relationships with psychopathy-related dimensions. Show less
This dissertation explores the involvement of the locus-coeruleus-noradrenaline (LC-NE) system in both temporal attention and uncertainty processing. To this end, a number of cognitive tasks are... Show moreThis dissertation explores the involvement of the locus-coeruleus-noradrenaline (LC-NE) system in both temporal attention and uncertainty processing. To this end, a number of cognitive tasks are used (Stroop, passive viewing, attentional blink, accessory stimulus, auditory oddball) and a number of techniques are utilized (electroencephalogram [EEG], pupillometry, phsychopharmacology). Show less
Water is all around us and is vital for all aspects of life. Studying the various compounds and life forms that inhabit natural waters lets us better understand the world around us.Remote sensing... Show moreWater is all around us and is vital for all aspects of life. Studying the various compounds and life forms that inhabit natural waters lets us better understand the world around us.Remote sensing enables global measurements with rapid response and high consistency. Citizen science provides new knowledge and greatly increases the scientific and social impact of research.In this thesis, we investigate several aspects of citizen science and remote sensing of water, with a focus on uncertainty and accessibility. We improve existing techniques and develop new methods to use smartphone cameras for accessible remote sensing of water. Show less
This thesis investigates the role of several individual and social factors (i.e., personal self-esteem, social norms and social influence) that directly affect how people deal with uncertainty, in... Show moreThis thesis investigates the role of several individual and social factors (i.e., personal self-esteem, social norms and social influence) that directly affect how people deal with uncertainty, in reaction to blatant versus subtle discrimination. While responses to blatant discrimination were not affected by any of these factors, these factors determined to a significant degree responses to subtle discrimination. The main idea throughout the thesis is that blatant discrimination involves a clear rejection situation. Because of this clarity, the factors that are addressed in this dissertation are not expected to determine responses to this type of unfair group-based treatment. However, when situational cues fail to indicate the cause of the negative outcome such as in case of subtle discrimination, targets are more dependent on their level of self-esteem, the tolerance of social norms, and the opinion of others regarding the discriminatory treatment. This thesis provides us with insightful information about responses to multi-interpretable rejection situations where people are unsure about whether the negative treatment is due to their individual qualities or due to the prejudice the other holds about their social group. Furthermore, the thesis clarifies why group-based rejection can sometimes have negative and at other times have positive consequences by comparing responses of the targets to blatant and subtle discrimination. Show less
This thesis aims to evaluate the environmental sustainability of European imports of farmed aquatic food products from Asia, using life cycle assessment (LCA). Farming of Asian tiger prawn,... Show moreThis thesis aims to evaluate the environmental sustainability of European imports of farmed aquatic food products from Asia, using life cycle assessment (LCA). Farming of Asian tiger prawn, whiteleg shrimp, freshwater prawn, tilapia and pangasius catfish in Bangladesh, China, Thailand and Vietnam were chosen as representatives of the Asian aquaculture industry. Initial research revealed large discrepancies among LCA results driven by methodological choices and data sourcing. A protocol for quantifying dispersions around unit process data was therefore developed, characterising inherent uncertainty, spread (variability) and unrepresentativeness as the three major sources driving overall discrepancies. Results, propagated using Monte Carlo simulations, highlighted that the uncertainty related to LCA results could range with over an order of magnitude. For comparative purposes, however, only relative uncertainties are of relevance. Defining a hypothesis and using dependent sampling therefore allowed for several significant conclusions to be identified. Among these were significantly lower environmental impacts of Asian tiger shrimp farming in western Bangladesh, tilapia in Guangdong and pangasius in large-scale farms. Common environmental hot-spots included aqua-feeds, eutrophying effluents from farms, the use of benzalkonium chloride and other chlorine releasing compounds as disinfectants, and extensive use of paddle-wheels on shrimp farms. The research identified discrepancies Show less
Historiography of science is in its current self-image a non-evaluative discipline. Its main goal is to understand past processes of knowledge formation on their own terms. In the last few... Show moreHistoriography of science is in its current self-image a non-evaluative discipline. Its main goal is to understand past processes of knowledge formation on their own terms. In the last few decades this approach has greatly improved our understanding of the phenomenon of science. Yet, something strange in going on. Reading present-day historiography of science it is as if no one ever made a mistake. We may wonder why there has been development in science at all, if no mistake has ever stood in need of correction. I argue that it is possible to add an evaluative dimension to historiography of science without relinquishing the many insights won in the past few decades. Such an evaluative stance requires a radical comparative approach towards assessments of past science. I argue that this comparativism is not incompatible to relationalism but complementary to it. Next to this I argue that, if we take the wish to reduce uncertainty as the primary force of change in science, a proper conceptualization of the notion of error, which is now surprisingly lacking, becomes possible. The results of my thesis endow historians of science with a set of analytical possibilities, which, if used, will significantly strengthen the historiographical output of the field. Show less
Real-world (black-box) optimization problems often involve various types of uncertainties and noise emerging in different parts of the optimization problem. When this is not accounted for,... Show moreReal-world (black-box) optimization problems often involve various types of uncertainties and noise emerging in different parts of the optimization problem. When this is not accounted for, optimization may fail or may yield solutions that are optimal in the classical strict notion of optimality, but fail in practice. Robust optimization is the practice of optimization that actively accounts for uncertainties and/or noise. Evolutionary Algorithms form a class of optimization algorithms that use the principle of evolution to find good solutions to optimization problems. Because uncertainty and noise are indispensable parts of nature, this class of optimization algorithms seems to be a logical choice for robust optimization scenarios. This thesis provides a clear definition of the term robust optimization and a comparison and practical guidelines on how Evolution Strategies, a subclass of Evolutionary Algorithms for real-parameter optimization problems, should be adapted for such scenarios. Show less
Dit proefschrift onderzoekt de totstandkoming van geloofwaardigheid in live blogs. Live blogs worden gekenmerkt door hun onmiddellijkheid en onzekerheid. Het is taak voor journalisten het publiek... Show moreDit proefschrift onderzoekt de totstandkoming van geloofwaardigheid in live blogs. Live blogs worden gekenmerkt door hun onmiddellijkheid en onzekerheid. Het is taak voor journalisten het publiek te overtuigen de beste versie van de werkelijkheid te presenteren. In drie studies (inhoudsanalyse, interviews met makers en focusgroepen met gebruikers) onderzoekt dit proefschrift hoe geloofwaardigheid wordt betracht en geëvalueerd. Show less
Multigene panel testing is mainly used to improve identification of genetic causes in families with characteristics fitting multiple possible cancer syndromes. This technique may yield uncertainty,... Show moreMultigene panel testing is mainly used to improve identification of genetic causes in families with characteristics fitting multiple possible cancer syndromes. This technique may yield uncertainty, for example when variants of unknown significance are identified. This study explores counsellors' and counselees' experiences with uncertainty, and how they discuss uncertainties and decide about multigene panel testing. Six focus groups were conducted including 38 counsellors. Twelve counselees who had received genetic counselling about a multigene panel test were interviewed. The focus group sessions and interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts were analysed inductively by two independent coders and data were examined to obtain a comprehensive list of themes. Counsellors identified several uncertainties, e.g. finding a variant of unknown significance, or detecting an unsolicited finding. Most difficulty was experienced in deciding what uncertain information to communicate to counselees and how to do so. The extent and manner of providing uncertain information differed between centres and between counsellors. Counsellors attached more value to counselees' preferences in decision making compared to less extended tests. Counselees experienced difficulty in recalling which uncertainties had been discussed during genetic counselling. They primarily reported to have experienced uncertainty about their own and their relatives' risk of developing cancer. Counselees felt they had had a say in the decision. This study showed that counsellors need more guidance on whether and how to convey uncertainty. Undesirable practice variation in the communication of uncertainty may be prevented by determining what information should minimally be discussed to enable informed decision making. Show less
Mendoza Beltran, M.A.; Heijungs, R.; Guinée, J.B.; Tukker, A. 2015
Purpose Despite efforts to treat uncertainty due to methodological choices in life cycle assessment (LCA) such as standardization, one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis, and analytical and... Show morePurpose Despite efforts to treat uncertainty due to methodological choices in life cycle assessment (LCA) such as standardization, one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis, and analytical and statistical methods, no method exists that propagate this source of uncertainty for all relevant processes simultaneously with data uncertainty through LCA. This study aims to develop, implement, and test such a method, for the particular example of the choice of partitioning methods for allocation in LCA, to be used in LCA calculations and software. Methods Monte Carlo simulations were used jointly with the CMLCA software for propagating into distributions of LCA results, uncertainty due to the choice of allocation method together with uncertainty of unit process data. In this study, a methodological preference is assigned to each partitioning method, applicable to multi-functional processes in the system. The allocation methods are sampled per process according to these preferences. A case study on rapeseed oil focusing on three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and their global warming impacts is presented to illustrate the method developed. The results of the developed method are compared with those for the same case similarly quantifying uncertainty of unit process data but accompanied by separate scenarios for the different partitioning choices. Results and discussion The median of the inventory flows (emissions) for separate scenarios varies due to the partitioning choices and unit process data uncertainties. Inventory variations are reflected in the global warming results. Results for the approach of this study vary with the methodological preference assigned to the different allocation methods per multi-functional process and with the continuous distribution of unit process data. The method proved feasible and implementable. However, absolute uncertainties only further increased. Therefore, it should be further researched to reflect relative uncertainties, more relevant for comparative LCAs. Conclusions Propagation of uncertainties due to the choice of partitioning methods and to unit process data into LCA results is enabled by the proposed method, while capturing variability due to both sources. It is a practical proposal to tackle unresolved debates about partitioning choices increasing robustness and transparency of LCA results. Assigning a methodological preference to each allocation method of multi-functional processes in the system enables pseudo-statistical propagation of uncertainty due to allocation. Involving stakeholders in determining these methodological preferences allows for participatory approaches. Eventually, this method could be expanded to also cover other ways of dealing with allocation and to other methodological choices in LCA. Show less
LCA has become an important method to study environmental impacts of human activities. Still, there are several methodological issues in LCA that can adversely affect the results reliability.... Show moreLCA has become an important method to study environmental impacts of human activities. Still, there are several methodological issues in LCA that can adversely affect the results reliability. Three of these issues relate to a) allocation, b) the representation of the time dimension and c) the interpretation of results in LCA. Uncertainties play a fundamental and underlying role for these issues. It is widely-agreed that correctly dealing with these different uncertainty sources is a vital step towards increasing the usefulness and reliability of LCA results. Practical ways to deal with uncertainty are needed. The aim of this thesis is to deepen the understanding of the uncertainty dimension of current LCA. By means of addressing different sources of uncertainty not yet addressed, with new methods, a clearer picture of the implications of different sources of uncertainty in LCA is provided. This thesis departed from broad domains of uncertainty including risk, uncertainty as conventionally described, ignorance and indeterminacies. The selected sources of uncertainty are in the domains of risk and conventional uncertainty i.e. those due to incomplete scientific knowledge and that are to some extent quantifiable. This does not mean that all can be known or quantified as ignorance and indeterminacies exist. Show less
This study examines the kind of uncertainties frontline tax officials working with a trust based inspection approach experience in interacting with citizen-clients. The classical literature on... Show moreThis study examines the kind of uncertainties frontline tax officials working with a trust based inspection approach experience in interacting with citizen-clients. The classical literature on bureaucracy and the street-level bureaucracy literature suggest frontline officials face two kinds of uncertainties: information and interpretation problems. Analysing stories of Dutch frontline tax officials collected through in-depth interviews, this article shows that these two kinds of uncertainty only explain a part of the uncertainties experienced. Respondents also face action problems requiring improvisational judgements. The study furthermore finds that different sources underlie these uncertainties, pointing to possible explanations. Show less
Throughout this research the focus has been on unraveling of the factors and relations that link different aspects of collaborative workflow to strategic performance management. However, the same... Show moreThroughout this research the focus has been on unraveling of the factors and relations that link different aspects of collaborative workflow to strategic performance management. However, the same issues that applied to strategic performance management of supply chains also apply to other areas of strategic performance in business. The following (to be - tested) recommendations, organized along the lines of the "expected managerial contributions" therefore apply both to strategic performance management of supply chains and other strategic business processes. a) The SPI (Strategic Performance Inhibitor) Model will enable an integrated approach to (i) Problem structuring (ii) Problem solving and (iii) Learning for managers on potential threats and problem to strategic performance of supply chains. b) The SPI classification will provide a systematic and structured manner of communicating and addressing potential problems and risk to strategic performance of supply chains. Once classified, each class will have its own type of impact on strategic performance of supply chains and consequently the resolution for it. c) Collaborative Workflow will enable inventory (i.e. right quantity at the right time and right place) to be substitutes by Information (i.e. the right information at the right time and the right place) resulting in cost reduction. Show less
Simoes, S.; Fortes, P.; Seixas, J.; Huppes, G. 2014
