The research in this dissertation aims to optimise blood donation processes in the framework of the Dutch national blood bank Sanquin. The primary health risk for blood donors is iron deficiency,... Show moreThe research in this dissertation aims to optimise blood donation processes in the framework of the Dutch national blood bank Sanquin. The primary health risk for blood donors is iron deficiency, which is evaluated based on donors' hemoglobin and ferritin levels. If either of these levels are inadequate, donors are deferred from donation. Deferral due to low hemoglobin levels occurs on-site, meaning that donors have already traveled to the blood bank and then have to return home without donating, which is demotivating for the donor and inefficient for the blood bank. A large part of this dissertation therefore has the objective to develop a prediction model for donors' hemoglobin levels, based on historical measurements and donor characteristics.The prediction model that was developed reduces the deferral rate by approximately 60\% (from 3\% to 1\% for women, and from 1\% to 0.4\% for men), showing the potential of using data to enhance blood bank policy efficiency. Additionally, the model predictions were made explainable, providing the blood bank with insights into why specific predictions are made. These insights increase our understanding of the relationships between donor characteristics and hemoglobin levels. If this prediction model would be implemented in practice, the explanations could also be shared with the donor to help them understand why they are (not) invited to donate, which could also contribute to donor satisfaction and retention.In a collaborative effort with blood banks in Australia, Belgium, Finland and South Africa, the same prediction model was applied on data from each blood bank. Despite differences in blood bank policies and donor demographics, the models found similar associations with the predictor variables in all countries. Differences in performance could mostly be attributed to differences in deferral rates, with blood banks with higher deferral rates obtaining higher model accuracy.Beyond hemoglobin prediction models, additional research questions are explored. One study aims to identify determinants of ferritin levels in donors through repeated measurements, and linking these to environmental variables. Another study involves modeling the pharmacokinetics of antibodies in COVID-19 recovered donors, and finding relationships between patient characteristics, symptoms, and antibody levels over time.In summary, the research in this dissertation shows the potential within the wealth of data collected by blood banks. The proposed data-driven donation strategies not only decrease deferral rates but also increase donor retention and understanding. This comprehensive approach allows Sanquin to provide more personalised feedback to donors regarding their iron status, ultimately optimising the blood donation process and contributing to the overall efficacy of blood banking systems. Show less
Large and complex data sets are increasingly available for research in critical care. To analyze these data, researchers use techniques commonly referred to as statistical learning or machine... Show moreLarge and complex data sets are increasingly available for research in critical care. To analyze these data, researchers use techniques commonly referred to as statistical learning or machine learning (ML). The latter is known for large successes in the field of diagnostics, for example, by identification of radiological anomalies. In other research areas, such as clustering and prediction studies, there is more discussion regarding the benefit and efficiency of ML techniques compared with statistical learning. In this viewpoint, we aim to explain commonly used statistical learning and ML techniques and provide guidance for responsible use in the case of clustering and prediction questions in critical care. Clustering studies have been increasingly popular in critical care research, aiming to inform how patients can be characterized, classified, or treated differently. An important challenge for clustering studies is to ensure and assess generalizability. This limits the application of findings in these studies toward individual patients. In the case of predictive questions, there is much discussion as to what algorithm should be used to most accurately predict outcome. Aspects that determine usefulness of ML, compared with statistical techniques, include the volume of the data, the dimensionality of the preferred model, and the extent of missing data. There are areas in which modern ML methods may be preferred. However, efforts should be made to implement statistical frameworks (e.g., for dealing with missing data or measurement error, both omnipresent in clinical data) in ML methods. To conclude, there are important opportunities but also pitfalls to consider when performing clustering or predictive studies with ML techniques. We advocate careful valuation of new data-driven findings. More interaction is needed between the engineer mindset of experts in ML methods, the insight in bias of epidemiologists, and the probabilistic thinking of statisticians to extract as much information and knowledge from data as possible, while avoiding harm. Show less
Hond, A. de; Raven, W.; Schinkelshoek, L.; Gaakeer, M.; Avest, E. ter; Sir, O.; ... ; Groot, B. de 2021
Objective: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models... Show moreObjective: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models predicting the hospitalization of ED patients and conventional regression techniques at three points in time after ED registration.Methods: We analyzed consecutive ED patients of three hospitals using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). We developed prediction models for hospitalization using an increasing number of data available at triage, similar to 30 min (including vital signs) and similar to 2 h (including laboratory tests) after ED registration, using ML (random forest, gradient boosted decision trees, deep neural networks) and multivariable logistic regression analysis (including spline transformations for continuous predictors). Demographics, urgency, presenting complaints, disease severity and proxies for comorbidity, and complexity were used as covariates. We compared the performance using the area under the ROC curve in independent validation sets from each hospital.Results: We included 172,104 ED patients of whom 66,782 (39 %) were hospitalized. The AUC of the multi-variable logistic regression model was 0.82 (0.78-0.86) at triage, 0.84 (0.81-0.86) at similar to 30 min and 0.83 (0.75-0.92) after similar to 2 h. The best performing ML model over time was the gradient boosted decision trees model with an AUC of 0.84 (0.77-0.88) at triage, 0.86 (0.82-0.89) at similar to 30 min and 0.86 (0.74-0.93) after similar to 2 h.Conclusions: Our study showed that machine learning models had an excellent but similar predictive performance as the logistic regression model for predicting hospital admission. In comparison to the 30-min model, the 2-h model did not show a performance improvement. After further validation, these prediction models could support management decisions by real-time feedback to medical personal. Show less
Objective: We aimed to explore the added value of common machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of outcome for moderate and severe traumatic brain injury.Study Design and Setting: We... Show moreObjective: We aimed to explore the added value of common machine learning (ML) algorithms for prediction of outcome for moderate and severe traumatic brain injury.Study Design and Setting: We performed logistic regression (LR), lasso regression, and ridge regression with key baseline predictors in the IMPACT-II database (15 studies, n = 11,022). ML algorithms included support vector machines, random forests, gradient boosting machines, and artificial neural networks and were trained using the same predictors. To assess generalizability of predictions, we performed internal, internal-external, and external validation on the recent CENTER-TBI study (patients with Glasgow Coma Scale <13, n = 1,554). Both calibration (calibration slope/intercept) and discrimination (area under the curve) was quantified.Results: In the IMPACT-II database, 3,332/11,022 (30%) died and 5,233(48%) had unfavorable outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale less than 4). In the CENTER-TBI study, 348/1,554(29%) died and 651(54%) had unfavorable outcome. Discrimination and calibration varied widely between the studies and less so between the studied algorithms. The mean area under the curve was 0.82 for mortality and 0.77 for unfavorable outcomes in the CENTER-TBI study.Conclusion: ML algorithms may not outperform traditional regression approaches in a low-dimensional setting for outcome prediction after moderate or severe traumatic brain injury. Similar to regression-based prediction models, ML algorithms should be rigorously validated to ensure applicability to new populations. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. Show less
The major challenge in analysing omic datasets is the strong dependencies which are present between samples and features. Taking into account and modelling the different dependency structures can... Show moreThe major challenge in analysing omic datasets is the strong dependencies which are present between samples and features. Taking into account and modelling the different dependency structures can lead to further improvements of our knowledge of the biological mechanisms. Therefore, improving our ability to predict diseases. This dissertation focuses on the development of new statistical methods designed to take into account the existing structures inside omic datasets by using mixed models, Gaussian graphical models, and machine learning approaches. Show less
