Aims The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70... Show moreAims The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70 years in four geographical risk regions.Methods and results Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for estimating CVD risk (CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) were derived in individuals aged over 65 without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD from the Cohort of Norway (28 503 individuals, 10 089 CVD events). Models included age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Four geographical risk regions were defined based on country-specific CVD mortality rates. Models were recalibrated to each region using region-specific estimated CVD incidence rates and risk factor distributions. For external validation, we analysed data from 6 additional study populations {338 615 individuals, 33 219 CVD validation cohorts, C-indices ranged between 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65] and 0.67 (0.64-0.69)}. Regional calibration of expected-vs.-observed risks was satisfactory. For given risk factor profiles, there was substantial variation across the four risk regions in the estimated 10-year CVD event risk.Conclusions The competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-OP model was derived, recalibrated, and externally validated to estimate 5- and 10-year CVD risk in older adults (aged 70 years or older) in four geographical risk regions. These models can be used for communicating the risk of CVD and potential benefit from risk factor treatment and may facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in CVD risk management in older persons. Show less
Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals... Show moreAims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe. Show less
Background The use of statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is associated with different benefit and harm outcomes. The aime of this study is how important these outcomes are... Show moreBackground The use of statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases is associated with different benefit and harm outcomes. The aime of this study is how important these outcomes are for people and what people's preferences are. Methods We conducted a preference-eliciting survey incorporating a best-worst scaling (BWS) instrument in Iran from June to November 2019. The relative importance of 13 statins-related outcomes was assessed on a sample of 1085 participants, including 913 general population (486 women) and 172 healthcare providers from the population covered by urban and rural primary health care centers. The participants made trade-off decisions and selected the most and least worrisome outcomes concurrently from 13 choice sets; each contains four outcomes generated using the balanced incomplete block design. Results According to the mean (SD) BWS scores, which can be (+ 4) in maximum and (- 4) in minimum, in the general population, the most worrisome outcomes were severe stroke (3.37 (0.8)), severe myocardial infarction (2.71(0.7)), and cancer (2.69 (1.33)). While myopathy (- 3. 03 (1.03)), nausea/headache (- 2.69 (0.94)), and treatment discontinuation due to side effects (- 2.24 (1.14)) were the least worrisome outcomes. Preferences were similar between rural and urban areas and among health care providers and the general population with overlapping uncertainty intervals. Conclusion The rank of health outcomes may be similar in various socio-cultural contexts. The preferences for benefits and harms of statin therapy are essential to assess benefit-harm balance when recommending statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases. Show less
The aim of this thesis was to study cardiovascular risk management in old age, in order to facilitate the development of age specific guidelines. In part one the current status of cardiovascular... Show moreThe aim of this thesis was to study cardiovascular risk management in old age, in order to facilitate the development of age specific guidelines. In part one the current status of cardiovascular prevention in old age is described, including a study into general practitioners__ attitudes and perceived barriers in this respect. The second part explores the incremental value of routine-ECGs for cardiovascular risk management in older persons from the general population, beyond existing information from medical records. The third part focuses on primary prevention, exploring the performance of classic risk factors, and some new biomarkers, in predicting cardiovascular mortality in very old people from the general population. It was concluded that a homocysteine level alone accurately identifies those at high risk of cardiovascular mortality, whereas classic risk factors included in the Framingham risk score do not. Next, in various age strata from age 55 years onwards, the association between blood pressure and mortality was studied. Finally, a systematic review into the diagnostic accuracy of natriuretic peptides for the diagnosis of chronic heart failure in older persons from the general population was performed, followed by a study in a cohort of nonagenarians into the prognostic value of NT-proBNP. A general discussion is provided, including directions for future research. Show less
