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A prospective ecological risk assessment of high-efficiency III–V/silicon tandem solar cells
Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Quik, J.T.K.; Hof, M.; Fuortes, A.; Behrens, P.A.; Cucurachi, S.; ... ; Vijver, M.G. 2024
A prospective ecological risk assessment of high-efficiency III–V/silicon tandem solar cells
Article / Letter to editor
open access
III–V/Silicon tandem solar cells offer one of the most promising avenues for high-efficiency, high-stability photovoltaics. However, a key concern is the potential environmental release of group... Show moreIII–V/Silicon tandem solar cells offer one of the most promising avenues for high-efficiency, high-stability photovoltaics. However, a key concern is the potential environmental release of group III–V elements, especially arsenic. To inform long-term policies on the energy transition and energy security, we develop and implement a framework that fully integrates future PV demand scenarios with dynamic stock, emission, and fate models in a probabilistic ecological risk assessment. We examine three geographical scales: local (including a floating utility-scale PV and waste treatment), regional (city-wide), and continental (Europe). Our probabilistic assessment considers a wide range of possible values for over one hundred uncertain technical, environmental, and regulatory parameters. We find that III–V/silicon PV integration in energy grids at all scales presents low-to-negligible risks to soil and freshwater organisms. Risks are further abated if recycling of III–V materials is considered at the panels' end-of-life. Show less
Life cycle thinking and safe-and-sustainable-by-design approaches for the battery innovation landscape
Soeteman-Hernández, L.G.; Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Koese, J.M.; Sips, A.J.A.M.; Noorlander, C.W.; Peijnenburg, W.J.G.M. 2023
Life cycle thinking and safe-and-sustainable-by-design approaches for the battery innovation landscape
Article / Letter to editor
open access
Developments in battery technology are essential for the energy transition and need to follow the framework for Safe-and-Sustainable-by-Design (SSbD) materials, chemicals, products and processes as... Show moreDevelopments in battery technology are essential for the energy transition and need to follow the framework for Safe-and-Sustainable-by-Design (SSbD) materials, chemicals, products and processes as set by the EU. SSbD is a broad approach which ensures that chemicals/advanced materials/products/services are produced and used in a way to avoid harm to humans and the environment. Technical and policy-related literature was surveyed for battery technologies and recommendations were provided for a broad SSbD approach that remains firmly grounded in Life Cycle Thinking principles. The approach integrates functional performance and sustainability (safety, social, environmental and economic) aspects throughout the life cycle of materials, products and processes, and evaluates how their interactions reflect on SSbD parameters. 22 different types of batteries were analyzed in a life cycle thinking approach for criticality, toxicity/safety, environmental and social impact, circularity, functionality and cost to ensure battery innovation has a green and sustainable purpose to avoid unintended consequences. Show less
A social life cycle assessment of vanadium redox flow and lithium-ion batteries for energy storage
Koese, J.M.; Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Vert, V.B.; Vijver, M.G. 2022
A social life cycle assessment of vanadium redox flow and lithium-ion batteries for energy storage
Article / Letter to editor
open access
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are expected to fulfill a crucial role in the renewable energy systems of the future. Within current regulatory frameworks, assessing the sustainability as... Show moreBattery energy storage systems (BESS) are expected to fulfill a crucial role in the renewable energy systems of the future. Within current regulatory frameworks, assessing the sustainability as well as the social risks for BESS should be considered. In this research we conducted a social life cycle assessment (S-LCA) of two BESS: the vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) and the lithium-ion battery (LIB). The S-LCA was conducted based on the guidelines set by UNEP/SETAC and using the PSILCA v.3 database. It was found that most social risks related to the life cycle of the batteries are associated with the raw material extraction stage, while sectors related to chemicals also entail considerable risks. Workers are the stakeholder group affected most. These results apply to supply chains located in both China and Germany, but risks were lower for similar supply chains in Germany. An LIB with a nickel manganese cobalt oxide cathode is associated with considerably larger risks compared to a LIB with lithium manganese oxide cathode. For a VRFB life cycle with an increased vanadium price, the social risks were higher than those of the VRFB supply chain with a regular vanadium price. Our paper shows that S-LCA through the PSILCA database can provide interesting insights into the potential social risks associated with a certain product's life cycle. Generalizations of the results are not recommended, and one should be careful with assessments for technologies that have not yet matured due to the cost sensitivity of the methodology. Show less
Towards a more resource-efficient solar future in the EU
Koese, J.M.; Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Breeman, G.E.; Vijver, M.G. 2022
Towards a more resource-efficient solar future in the EU: an actor-centered approach
Article / Letter to editor
open access
Material constraints may slow the pace of energy transition if the materials intensity of renewable energy technologies remains the same. Innovations in solar photovoltaics (PV) can contribute to... Show moreMaterial constraints may slow the pace of energy transition if the materials intensity of renewable energy technologies remains the same. Innovations in solar photovoltaics (PV) can contribute to achieving lower material demands. In this research, the actor-centered institutionalism framework, transitions literature and the science-policy interface framework are used to analyze how the involved actors perceive the transition towards more resource-efficiency in solar PV, what their preferences are, and how government should support this transition. Altogether, resource-efficiency is not sufficiently supported, while it is considered extremely important in the future of solar PV according to various involved actors. Traditional silicon-based solar panels are locked-in into the current policy landscape. Actors prioritizing resource-efficiency interact in a niche space, while actors involved in traditional silicon-based PV form the regime. Improved alignment between science and policy actors would help ease disagreements and prevent or benefit from path-dependency, thus, supporting resource-efficiency in solar PV.​​​​​​​ Show less
Guiding safe and sustainable technological innovation under uncertainty
Blanco Rocha, C.F. 2022
Guiding safe and sustainable technological innovation under uncertainty: a case study of III-V/silicon photovoltaics
Doctoral Thesis
open access
2024-03-08T00:00:00Z; 2024-03-08T00:00:00Z; 2024-03-08T00:00:00Z
A framework for prospective/ex-ante life cycle assessment (LCA) and ecological risk assessment (ERA) of emerging technologies is developed and applied to a case study of III-V/silicon photovoltaic... Show moreA framework for prospective/ex-ante life cycle assessment (LCA) and ecological risk assessment (ERA) of emerging technologies is developed and applied to a case study of III-V/silicon photovoltaic panels. Show less
Implementation of uncertainty analysis and moment‐independent global sensitivity analysis for full‐scale life cycle assessment models
Cucurachi, S.; Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Heijungs, R. 2021
Implementation of uncertainty analysis and moment‐independent global sensitivity analysis for full‐scale life cycle assessment models
Article / Letter to editor
open access
Life cycle assessment (LCA) models and databases have increased in size, resolution, and complexity, requiring analysts to rely on an ever-increasing number of uncertain model inputs. Such... Show moreLife cycle assessment (LCA) models and databases have increased in size, resolution, and complexity, requiring analysts to rely on an ever-increasing number of uncertain model inputs. Such increased complexity calls for systematic approaches to assessing the uncertainty of the output results of LCA models and the sensitivity of LCA model outputs to the model's uncertain inputs. In this contribution, we provide a theoretical basis and present a practical software implementation that combines uncertainty analysis and moment-independent global sensitivity analysis, which can be readily applied to full-scale LCA models. We implemented our approach in the Activity-Browser open source LCA software and it is made available for use in LCA studies. We demonstrate the approach and software implementation with a case study of crystalline silicon photovoltaics. Show less
How can LCA include prospective elements to assess emerging technologies and system transitions?
Adrianto, L.R.; Hulst, M.K. van der; Tokaya, J.P.; Arvidsson, R.; Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Caldeira, C.; ... ; Hauck, M. 2021
How can LCA include prospective elements to assess emerging technologies and system transitions? The 76th LCA discussion forum on life cycle assessment, 19 November 2020
Article / Letter to editor
open access
2022-01-21T00:00:00Z
This paper summarizes the 76th LCA Discussion Forum end its main findings. Main issues when addressing emerging technologies identified were: the lack of primary data, the need for (shared) future... Show moreThis paper summarizes the 76th LCA Discussion Forum end its main findings. Main issues when addressing emerging technologies identified were: the lack of primary data, the need for (shared) future background scenarios and (guidlines for) a common methodology. The following recommendations have been derived by the organizers: 1) Specific foreground inventories are always tailor-made, but consistency can be improved through lists of mandatory considerations. 2) Continue sharing (future) technology data and proxy processes, that can be readily replicated to new studies and assist in developing inventories. 3) Streamline and unify the process of including scenarios for background systems. New approaches may provide first important solutions to efficiently include consistent future scenarios in prospective LCA. Show less
Environmental impacts of III–V/silicon photovoltaics: life cycle assessment and guidance for sustainable manufacturing
Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Cucurachi, S.; Dimroth, F.; Guinée, J.B.; Peijnenburg, W.J.G.M.; Vijver, M.G. 2020
Environmental impacts of III–V/silicon photovoltaics: life cycle assessment and guidance for sustainable manufacturing
Article / Letter to editor
open access
Assessing the sustainability of emerging technologies: A probabilistic LCA method applied to advanced photovoltaics
Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Cucurachi, S.; Guinee, J.B.; Vijver, M.G.; Peijnenburg, W.J.G.M.; Trattnig, R.; Heijungs, R. 2020
Assessing the sustainability of emerging technologies: A probabilistic LCA method applied to advanced photovoltaics
Article / Letter to editor
open access
A key source of uncertainty in the environmental assessment of emerging technologies is the unpredictable manufacturing, use, and end-of-life pathways a technology can take as it progresses from... Show more

A key source of uncertainty in the environmental assessment of emerging technologies is the unpredictable manufacturing, use, and end-of-life pathways a technology can take as it progresses from lab to industrial scale. This uncertainty has sometimes been addressed in life cycle assessment (LCA) by performing scenario analysis. However, the scenario-based approach can be misleading if the probabilities of occurrence of each scenario are not incorporated. It also brings about a practical problem; considering all possible pathways, the number of scenarios can quickly become unmanageable. We present a modelling approach in which all possible pathways are modelled as a single product system with uncertain processes. These processes may or may not be selected once the technology reaches industrial scale according to given probabilities. An uncertainty analysis of such a system provides a single probability distribution for each impact score. This distribution accounts for uncertainty about the product system’s final configuration along with other sources of uncertainty. Furthermore, a global sensitivity analysis can identify whether the future selection of certain pathways over others will be of importance for the variance of the impact score. We illustrate the method with a case study of an emerging technology for front-side metallization of photovoltaic cells.

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Are Technological Developments Improving the Environmental Sustainability of Photovoltaic Electricity?
Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Cucurachi, S.; Peijnenburg, W.J.G.M.; Beames, A.; Vijver, M.G. 2019
Are Technological Developments Improving the Environmental Sustainability of Photovoltaic Electricity?
Article / Letter to editor
open access
Innovation in photovoltaics (PV) is mostly driven by the cost per kilowatt ratio, making it easy to overlook environmental impacts of technological enhancements during early research and... Show moreInnovation in photovoltaics (PV) is mostly driven by the cost per kilowatt ratio, making it easy to overlook environmental impacts of technological enhancements during early research and development stages. As PV technology developers introduce novel materials and manufacturing methods, the well‐studied environmental profile of conventional silicon‐based PV may change considerably. Herein, existing trends and hotspots across different types of emerging PV technologies are investigated through a systematic review and meta‐analysis of life‐cycle assessments (LCAs). To incorporate as many data points as possible, a comprehensive harmonization procedure is applied, producing over 600 impact data points for organic, perovskite (PK), dye‐sensitized, tandem, silicon, and other thin‐film cells. How the panel and balance of system components affect environmental footprints in comparable installations is also investigated and discussed. Despite the large uncertainties and variabilities in the underlying LCA data and models, the harmonized results show clear positive trends across the sector. Seven potential hotspots are identified for specific PV technologies and impact categories. The analysis offers a high‐level guidance for technology developers to avoid introducing undesired environmental trade‐offs as they advance to make PV more competitive in the energy markets. Show less
An integrated framework to assess impacts on ecosystem services in LCA demonstrated by a case study of mining in Chile
Blanco Rocha, C.F.; Penedo de Sousa Marques, A.; Bodegom, P.M. van 2017
An integrated framework to assess impacts on ecosystem services in LCA demonstrated by a case study of mining in Chile
Article / Letter to editor
open access
2019-05-29T00:00:00Z
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool to quantitatively assess the environmental impacts associated to a product’s life cycle. Since its conception, LCA has improved considerably in sophistication... Show moreLife Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a tool to quantitatively assess the environmental impacts associated to a product’s life cycle. Since its conception, LCA has improved considerably in sophistication and scope. Yet efforts to incorporate ecosystem services (ES) are still at an early stage. We present a novel framework for assessing ES in LCA that integrates models from adjacent fields and partitions the required modeling steps into different phases of LCA. Physical models are first used to determine how physical units of ecosystems are transformed by industrial processes; ES models are then used to determine the losses or gains of ES per ecosystem unit, and economic valuation is used to normalize and weigh the total ES losses/gains. We demonstrate the framework for a case study on water extraction by the mining industry in Chile and compare ES losses that result from the transformation of wetland and coastal ecosystems respectively. The proposed framework advances current efforts to assess ES beyond land use impacts in LCA by presenting a coherent approach to deal with spatial and temporal variability of ES production and by incorporating socioeconomic aspects of ES use. It also facilitates the coupling of LCA with other ES databases currently being developed Show less