High-tech industries power the modern digital world, but their supply chains are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical and economic disruption. Urgent action is needed to improve supply-chain... Show moreHigh-tech industries power the modern digital world, but their supply chains are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical and economic disruption. Urgent action is needed to improve supply-chain resilience. Show less
Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; Taherzadeh, O.A.; Tukker, A. 2023
This report aims to provide a primer for CGE practitioners to understand the potential to link micro (i.e., Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Dynamic Material Flow Analysis (DMFA)) and CGE models to... Show moreThis report aims to provide a primer for CGE practitioners to understand the potential to link micro (i.e., Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Dynamic Material Flow Analysis (DMFA)) and CGE models to model circular economy strategies. The report offers an overview of the state-of-the-art of LCA/DMFA and CGE model linkages (including 8 archetypes), key lessons from LCA/DMFA studies to macro-modelling approaches, and an example of substituting internal combustion engine vehicles with electric vehicles, considering the circularity potential of Li-ion batteries to illustrate the application of micro- and macro-modelling linkages towards circular economy scenarios. Show less
An array of technologies is expected to contribute to the energy and circular transitions in multiple sectors, such as transport, energy, and electronics and telecommunications. These sectors are... Show moreAn array of technologies is expected to contribute to the energy and circular transitions in multiple sectors, such as transport, energy, and electronics and telecommunications. These sectors are considered key sectors for achieving climate targets due to their role on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The widespread use of technologies will require increased amounts raw materials and may strain the established supply chains for some of these. There is interest in critical raw materials (CRMs) that have major economic relevance and face comparatively high supply risks in specific economies. Identifying the future CRM demand in the key sectors is essential to implement strategies that can mitigate potential disruptions and helps to improve resilience in the relevant supply chains.This working paper provides an overview of the CRM demand of 11 key technologies that are expected to contribute to the development of transport, energy, electronics, and telecommunication sectors. Moreover, the working paper discusses the links between the selected sectors, and identifies further implications for the future CRM demand, such as overall CRM demand from other economic sectors and technologies, circularity potential, CRM demand from production and building infrastructure, future innovations, and supply/demand interactions. Show less
Dong, D.; Tukker, A.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Oers, L.F.C.M. van; Rechberger, H.; Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; ... ; Voet, E. van der 2022
To conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the "Zero waste" concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper.... Show moreTo conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the "Zero waste" concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper. Although several studies have assessed the copper demand and recycling, there is a lack of understanding on how different waste management options would potentially reduce primary copper demand and associated environmental impacts in China in the context of energy transition. This study addresses this gap in view of a transition to low-carbon energy system and the optimization of copper waste management combining MFA and LCA approaches. Six types of waste streams (C&DW, ELV, WEEE, IEW, MSW, ICW) are investigated in relation to various "Zero waste" strategies including reduction, reuse (repair, remanufacturing or refurbishment), recycling and transition from informal to formal waste management. Under present Chinese policies, reuse and recycling of copper containing products will lead to a somewhat lower dependency on primary copper in 2100 (11187Gg), as well as lower total GHG emissions (64869 Gg CO2-eq.) and cumulative energy demand (1.18x10 boolean AND 12 MJ). Maximizing such "Zero waste" options may lead to a further reduction, resulting in 65% potential reduction of primary copper demand, around 55% potential reduction of total GHG emissions and total cumulative energy demand in 2100. Several policy actions are proposed to provide insights into future waste management in China as well as some of the challenges involved. Show less
Building stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along... Show moreBuilding stock growth around the world drives extensive material consumption and environmental impacts. Future impacts will be dependent on the level and rate of socioeconomic development, along with material use and supply strategies. Here we evaluate material-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for residential and commercial buildings along with their reduction potentials in 26 global regions by 2060. For a middle-of-the-road baseline scenario, building material-related emissions see an increase of 3.5 to 4.6 Gt CO2eq yr-1 between 2020-2060. Low- and lower-middle-income regions see rapid emission increase from 750 Mt (22% globally) in 2020 and 2.4 Gt (51%) in 2060, while higher-income regions shrink in both absolute and relative terms. Implementing several material efficiency strategies together in a High Efficiency (HE) scenario could almost half the baseline emissions. Yet, even in this scenario, the building material sector would require double its current proportional share of emissions to meet a 1.5 degrees C-compatible target.Building construction causes large material-related emissions which present a serious decarbonization challenge. Here, the authors show that the building material sector could halve emissions by increasing efficiency until 2060 but even then its emissions would be twice as high as needed to meet the 1.5 degrees C target. Show less
Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; Deetman, S.P.; Merciai, S.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2021
Around 40% of global raw materials that are extracted every year accumulate as in-use stocks in the form of buildings, infrastructure, transport equipment, and other durable goods. Material inflows... Show moreAround 40% of global raw materials that are extracted every year accumulate as in-use stocks in the form of buildings, infrastructure, transport equipment, and other durable goods. Material inflows to in-use stocks are a key component in the circularity transition, since the reintegration of those materials back into the economy, at the end of the stock's life cycle, means that less extraction of raw materials is required. Thus, understanding the geographical, material, and sectoral distribution of material inflows to in-use stocks globally is crucial for circular economy policies. Here we quantify the geographical, material, and sectoral distributions of material inflows to in-use stocks of 43 countries and 5 rest-of-the-world regions in 2011, using the global, multiregional hybrid units input-output database EXIOBASE v3.3. Among all regions considered, China shows the largest amount of material added to in-use stocks in 2011 (around 46% of global material inflows to in-use stocks), with a per capita value that is comparable to high income regions such as Europe and North America. In these latter regions, more than 90% of in-use stock additions are comprised of non-metallic minerals (e.g., concrete, brick/stone, asphalt, and aggregates) and steel. We discuss the importance of understanding the distribution and composition of materials accumulated in society for a circularity transition. We also argue that future research should integrate the geographical and material resolution of our results into dynamic stock-flow models to determine when these materials will be available for recovery and recycling. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described in http://jie.click/badges Show less
A sustainable resource management is an essential aspect to satisfy the current human needs without compromising the needs of future generations. There is a need to provide resource-efficient... Show moreA sustainable resource management is an essential aspect to satisfy the current human needs without compromising the needs of future generations. There is a need to provide resource-efficient strategies that enables to decrease the risk of disruptive supply chains while maintaining natural resources for the current and future generations. Within this context, circular economy has been proposed as a paradigm that aims to reduce resource extraction and waste flows by retaining materials into the economy. However, there is still a lack of understanding on how a global circularity transition might look like, and what would be the magnitude of the potential economic, social, and environmental implications of material circularity on macro scale. These aspects raise the questions: Is circular economy a sustainable solution to achieve a global economic and environmental sustainability? And what are the macroeconomic, social, and environmental implications of a transition to a circular economy? A macro level assessment of material circularity aims to understand how material circularity could contribute to sustainable resource management, and explore which circularity interventions could support a cost-effective circularity transition on a macro scale. Show less
Circular business models (CBMs) and their potential environmental benefits have been widely assessed by using life cycle assessment (LCA). However, most LCA studies consider static systems and... Show moreCircular business models (CBMs) and their potential environmental benefits have been widely assessed by using life cycle assessment (LCA). However, most LCA studies consider static systems and assume instant and full technology adoption, limiting the analysis of the implications of circular transitions. Considering technology diffusion in LCA models may bring a better understanding of the environmental implications of the adoption of CBMs. Nevertheless, diffusion is also related to stock dynamics, which are difficult to represent in classic LCA models. To overcome these issues, we propose a modeling framework that integrates three modeling families to assess the environmental impacts and material implications of the adoption of CBMs: diffusion of innovations, product stock dynamics, and LCA. We present a method of application and illustrate it with a theoretical case study. This framework might be useful in the socio-economic analysis of systems transitioning to CBMs, especially in systems that involve long-lived products. Show less
Donati, F.; Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; Sigüenza-Sánchez, C.P.; Koning, A. de; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2019
A circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention or design. During the last decade, the circular economy became an attractive paradigm to increase global... Show moreA circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention or design. During the last decade, the circular economy became an attractive paradigm to increase global welfare while minimizing the environmental impacts of economic activities. Although several studies concerning the potential benefits and drawbacks of policies that implement the new paradigm have been performed, there is currently no standardized theoretical model or software to execute such assessment. In order to fill this gap, in the present paper we show how to perform these analyses using Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis. We also describe a python package (pycirk) for modeling Circular Economy scenarios in the context of the Environmentally Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output database EXIOBASE V3.3, for the year 2011. We exemplify the methods and software through a what-if zero-cost case study on two circular economy strategies (Resource Efficiency and Product Lifetime Extension), four environmental pressures and two socio-economic factors. Show less
Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; Siguenza -Sanchez, C.P.; Donati, F.; Merciai, S.; Schmidt, J.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2019
Due to increased policy attention on circular economy strategies, many studies have quantified material use and recovery at national and global scales. However, there has been no quantitative... Show moreDue to increased policy attention on circular economy strategies, many studies have quantified material use and recovery at national and global scales. However, there has been no quantitative analysis of the unrecovered waste that can be potentially reintegrated into the economy as materials or products. This can be interpreted as the gap of material circularity. In this paper we define the circularity gap of a country as the generated waste, plus old materials removed from stocks and durable products disposed (i.e. stock depletion), minus recovered waste. We estimated the circularity gap of 43 nations and 5 rest of the world regions in 2011, using the global, multiregional hybrid-units input-output database EXIOBASE v3.3. Our results show the trends of circularity gap in accordance to each region. For example, the circularity gaps of Europe and North America were between 1.6–2.2 tonnes per capita (t/cap), which are more than twice the global average gap (0.8 t/cap). Although these regions presented the major amount of material recovery, their circularity gaps were mostly related to the levels of stock depletion. In Africa and Asia-Pacific regions, the circularity gap was characterized by a low degree of recovery and stock depletion, with high levels of generated waste. Moreover, we discuss which intervention types can be implemented to minimize the circularity gap of nations. Show less
