Rationale Aspirin is typically discontinued in cranial and spinal surgery because of the increased risk of hemorrhagic complications, but comes together with the risk of resulting in an increase of... Show moreRationale Aspirin is typically discontinued in cranial and spinal surgery because of the increased risk of hemorrhagic complications, but comes together with the risk of resulting in an increase of cardiac and neurologic thrombotic perioperative events. Objective The aim of this study is to investigate the non-inferiority of perioperative continuation of aspirin patients undergoing low complex lumbar spinal surgery, compared with the current policy of perioperative discontinuation of aspirin. Study design A randomized controlled trial with two parallel groups of 277 cases (554 in total). Study population Patients undergoing low complex lumbar spinal surgery and using aspirin. All patients are aged >18 years. Intervention Peri-operative continuation of aspirin. Study outcomes Primary study outcome: composite of the following bleeding complications: – Neurological deterioration as a result of hemorrhage in the surgical area with cauda and/or nerve root compression. – Post-surgical anemia with hemoglobin level lower than 5 mmol/l, requiring transfusion. – Subcutaneous hematoma leading to wound leakage and pain higher than NRS=7. – Major and/or minor hemorrhage in any other body system according to the defnition of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis bleeding scale.Secondary study outcomes: – Each of the individual components of the primary outcome – Absolute mean diference in operative blood loss between the study arms – Thrombo-embolic-related complications: – Myocardial infarction – Venous thromboembolism – Stroke – Arterial thromboembolism Further study outcomes Anticoagulant treatment satisfaction by the Anti-Clot Treatment Scale (ACTS) and general health by the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS Global-10) in the pre- and postoperative phase. Nature and extent of the burden and risks associated with participation, beneft, and group related‑ ness Participation in this study imposes no additional risk to patients. Currently, there is no consensus on whether or not aspirin should be discontinued before cranial or spinal surgery. Currently, aspirin is typically discontinued in cranial and spinal surgery, because of a potential increased risk of hemorrhagic complication. An argument not based on a clinical trial. However, this policy might delay surgical procedures or carry the risk of resulting in an increase in cardiac and neurologic thrombotic perioperative events. It is unclear if the possibility of an increase in hemorrhagerelated complications outweighs the risk of an increase in cardiac and neurologic thrombotic perioperative events. Furthermore, the Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) will be asked for safety analysis by monitoring the study. There are no further disadvantages to participating in this study. Outcome measurements are recorded during admission and regular outpatient visits, and thus, do not require additional visits to the hospital. Show less
Background Limited evidence existed on the comparative effectiveness of decompressive craniectomy (DC) versus craniotomy for evacuation of traumatic acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) until the... Show moreBackground Limited evidence existed on the comparative effectiveness of decompressive craniectomy (DC) versus craniotomy for evacuation of traumatic acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) until the recently published randomised clinical trial RESCUE-ASDH. In this study, that ran concurrently, we aimed to determine current practice patterns and compare outcomes of primary DC versus craniotomy.Methods We conducted an analysis of centre treatment preference within the prospective, multicentre, observational Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (known as CENTER-TBI) and NeuroTraumatology Quality Registry (known as Net-QuRe) studies, which enrolled patients throughout Europe and Israel (2014-2020). We included patients with an ASDH who underwent acute neurosurgical evacuation. Patients with severe pre-existing neurological disorders were excluded. In an instrumental variable analysis, we compared outcomes between centres according to treatment preference, measured by the case-mix adjusted proportion DC per centre. The primary outcome was functional outcome rated by the 6-months Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended, estimated with ordinal regression as a common odds ratio (OR), adjusted for prespecified confounders. Variation in centre preference was quantified with the median odds ratio (MOR). CENTER-TBI is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02210221, and the Resource Identification Portal (Research Resource Identifier SCR_015582).Findings Between December 19, 2014 and December 17, 2017, 4559 patients with traumatic brain injury were enrolled in CENTER-TBI of whom 336 (7%) underwent acute surgery for ASDH evacuation; 91 (27%) underwent DC and 245 (63%) craniotomy. The proportion primary DC within total acute surgery cases ranged from 6 to 67% with an interquartile range (IQR) of 12-26% among 46 centres; the odds of receiving a DC for prognostically similar patients in one centre versus another randomly selected centre were trebled (adjusted median odds ratio 2.7, p < 0.0001). Higher centre preference for DC over craniotomy was not associated with better functional outcome (adjusted common odds ratio (OR) per 14% [IQR increase] more DC in a centre = 0.9 [95% CI 0.7-1.1], n = 200). Primary DC was associated with more follow-on surgeries and complications [secondary cranial surgery 27% vs. 18%; shunts 11 vs. 5%]; and similar odds of in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR per 14% IQR more primary DC 1.3 [95% CI (1.0-3.4), n = 200]).Interpretation We found substantial practice variation in the employment of DC over craniotomy for ASDH. This variation in treatment strategy did not result in different functional outcome. These findings suggest that primary DC should be restricted to salvageable patients in whom immediate replacement of the bone flap is not possible due to intraoperative brain swelling. Show less
Background and study aims Overcoming logistical obstacles for the implementation of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires accurate prediction of procedure times. We aimed to... Show moreBackground and study aims Overcoming logistical obstacles for the implementation of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) requires accurate prediction of procedure times. We aimed to evaluate existing and new prediction models for ESD duration.Patients and methods Records of all consecutive patients who underwent single, non-hybrid colorectal ESDs before 2020 at three Dutch centers were reviewed. The performance of an Eastern prediction model [GIE 2021;94(1):133-144] was assessed in the Dutch cohort. A prediction model for procedure duration was built using multivariable linear regression. The model's performance was validated using internal validation by bootstrap resampling, internal-external cross-validation and external validation in an independent Swedish ESD cohort.Results A total of 435 colorectal ESDs were analyzed (92% en bloc resections, mean duration 139 minutes, mean tumor size 39 mm). The performance of current unstandardized time scheduling practice was suboptimal (explained variance: R-2 =27%). We successfully validated the Eastern prediction model for colorectal ESD duration <60 minutes (c-statistic 0.70, 95% CI 0.62-0.77), but this model was limited due to dichotomization of the outcome and a relatively low frequency (14%) of ESDs completed <60 minutes in the Dutch centers. The model was more useful with a dichotomization cut-off of 120 minutes (c-statistic: 0.75; 88% and 17% of "easy" and "very difficult" ESDs completed <120 minutes, respectively). To predict ESD duration as continuous outcome, we developed and validated the six-variable cESD-TIME formula ( https://cesdtimeformula.shinyapps.io/calculator/ ; optimism-corrected R-2 =61%; R-2 =66% after recalibration of the slope).Conclusions We provided two useful tools for predicting colorectal ESD duration at Western centers. Further improvements and validations are encouraged with potential local adaptation to optimize time planning. Show less
Kaplan, Z.L.R.; Vlegel, M. van der; Dijck, J.T.J.M. van; Pisica, D.; Leeuwen, N. van; Lingsma, H.F.; ... ; CENTER TBI Participants Invest 2023
Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global public health problem and a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability. The increasing incidence combined with the heterogeneity and complexity... Show moreTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is a global public health problem and a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability. The increasing incidence combined with the heterogeneity and complexity of TBI will inevitably place a substantial burden on health systems. These findings emphasize the importance of obtaining accurate and timely insights into healthcare consumption and costs on a multi-national scale. This study aimed to describe intramural healthcare consumption and costs across the full spectrum of TBI in Europe. The Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in Traumatic Brain Injury (CENTER-TBI) core study is a prospective observational study conducted in 18 countries across Europe and in Israel. The baseline Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) was used to differentiate patients by brain injury severity in mild (GCS 13-15), moderate (GCS 9-12), or severe (GCS & LE;8) TBI. We analyzed seven main cost categories: pre-hospital care, hospital admission, surgical interventions, imaging, laboratory, blood products, and rehabilitation. Costs were estimated based on Dutch reference prices and converted to country-specific unit prices using gross domestic product (GDP)-purchasing power parity (PPP) adjustment. Mixed linear regression was used to identify between-country differences in length of stay (LOS), as a parameter of healthcare consumption. Mixed generalized linear models with gamma distribution and log link function quantified associations of patient characteristics with higher total costs. We included 4349 patients, of whom 2854 (66%) had mild, 371 (9%) had moderate, and 962 (22%) had severe TBI. Hospitalization accounted for the largest part of the intramural consumption and costs (60%). In the total study population, the mean LOS was 5.1 days at the intensive care unit (ICU) and 6.3 days at the ward. For mild, moderate, and severe TBI, mean LOS was, respectively, 1.8, 8.9, and 13.5 days at the ICU and 4.5, 10.1, and 10.3 days at the ward. Other large contributors to the total costs were rehabilitation (19%) and intracranial surgeries (8%). Total costs increased with higher age and greater trauma severity (mild; euro3,800 [IQR euro1,400-14,000], moderate; euro37,800 [IQR euro14,900-euro74,200], severe; euro60,400 [IQR euro24,400-euro112,700]). The adjusted analysis showed that female patients had lower costs than male patients (odds ratio (OR) 0.80 [CI 0.75-1.85]). Increasing TBI severity was associated with higher costs, OR 1.46 (confidence interval [CI] 1.31-1.63) and OR 1.67 [CI 1.52-1.84] for moderate and severe patients, respectively. A worse pre-morbid overall health state, increasing age and more severe systemic trauma, expressed in the Injury Severity Score (ISS), were also significantly associated with higher costs. Intramural costs of TBI are significant and are profoundly driven by hospitalization. Costs increased with trauma severity and age, and male patients incurred higher costs. Reducing LOS could be targeted with advanced care planning, in order to provide cost-effective care. Show less
Kaal, A.G.; Hoek, L. op de; Hochheimer, D.T.; Brouwers, C.; Wiersinga, W.J.; Snijders, D.; ... ; Nieuwkoop, C. van 2023
Background The Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 score assess disease severity in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We compared the clinical performance of both... Show moreBackground The Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 score assess disease severity in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We compared the clinical performance of both prognostic scores according to clinical outcomes and admission rates.Methods A nationwide retrospective cohort study was conducted using claims data from adult CAP patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) in 2018 and 2019. Dutch hospitals were divided into three categories: “CURB-65 hospitals” (n=25), “PSI hospitals” (n=19) and hospitals using both (“no-consensus hospitals”, n=15). Main outcomes were hospital admission rates, intensive care unit admissions, length of hospital stay, delayed admissions, readmissions and all-cause 30-day mortality. Multilevel logistic and Poisson regression analysis were used to adjust for potential confounders.Findings Of 50 984 included CAP patients, 21 157 were treated in CURB-65 hospitals, 17 279 in PSI hospitals and 12 548 in no-consensus hospitals. The 30-day mortality was significantly lower in CURB-65 hospitals versus PSI hospitals (8.6% and 9.7%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.89, 95% CI: 0.83–0.96, p=0.003). Other clinical outcomes were similar between CURB-65 hospitals and PSI hospitals. No-consensus hospitals had higher admission rates compared to the CURB-65 and PSI hospitals combined (78.4% and 81.5%, aOR 0.78, 95% CI: 0.62–0.99).Interpretation In this study, using the CURB-65 in CAP patients at the ED is associated with similar and possibly even better clinical outcomes compared to using the PSI. After confirmation in prospective studies, the CURB-65 may be recommended over the use of the PSI since it is associated with lower 30-day mortality and is more user-friendly. Show less
OBJECTIVE In the surgical treatment of isthmic spondylolisthesis, it is debatable whether instrumented fusion is mandatory in addition to decompression. The objective of this prospective cohort... Show moreOBJECTIVE In the surgical treatment of isthmic spondylolisthesis, it is debatable whether instrumented fusion is mandatory in addition to decompression. The objective of this prospective cohort study was to assess the long-term effect of decompression alone compared with decompression and instrumented fusion in patients who underwent the intervention of their own preference. The results were compared with those in patients who underwent randomly assigned treatment.METHODS The authors performed a prospective observational multicenter cohort study, including 91 patients with isthmic spondylolisthesis assigned to undergo either decompression alone (n = 44) or decompression and fusion (n = 47). The main outcomes were the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RDQ) scores and the patient's perceived recovery at the 2-year follow-up. Secondary outcomes were visual analog scale (VAS) leg pain and back pain scores and the reoperation rate. A meta-analysis was performed for data from this cohort study (n = 91) and from a randomized controlled trial (RCT) previously reported by the authors (n = 84). Subgroup analyses were performed on these combined data for age, sex, weight, smoking, and Meyerding grade.RESULTS At the 12-week follow-up, improvements of RDQ scores were comparable for the two procedures (decompression alone [D group] 4.4, 95% CI 2.3-6.5; decompression and fusion [DF group] 5.8, 95% CI -4.3 to 1.4; p = 0.31). Likewise, VAS leg pain scores (D group 35.0, 95% CI 24.5-45.6; DF group 47.5, 95% CI 37.4-57.5; p = 0.09) and VAS back pain scores (D group 23.5, 95% CI 13.3-33.7; DF group 34.0, 95% CI 24.1-43.8; p = 0.15) were comparable. At the 2-year follow-up, there were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of scores for RDQ (difference -3.1, 95% CI -6.4 to 0.3, p = 0.07), VAS leg pain (difference -7.4, 95% CI -22.1 to 7.2, p = 0.31), and VAS back pain (difference -11.4, 95% CI -25.7 to 2.9, p = 0.12). In contrast, patient-perceived recovery from leg pain was significantly higher in the DF group (79% vs 51%, p = 0.02). Subgroup analyses did not demonstrate a superior outcome for decompression alone compared with decompression and fusion. Nine patients (20.5%) underwent reoperation in total, all in the D group. The meta-analysis including both the cohort and RCT populations yielded an estimated pooled mean difference in RDQ of -3.7 (95% CI -5.94 to -1.55, p = 0.0008) in favor of decompression and fusion at the 2-year follow- up.CONCLUSIONS In patients with isthmic spondylolisthesis, at the 2-year follow-up, patients who underwent decompression and fusion showed superior functional outcome and perceived recovery compared with those who underwent decompression alone. No subgroups benefited from decompression alone. Therefore, decompression and fusion is recommended over decompression alone as a primary surgical treatment option in isthmic spondylolisthesis. Show less
Aims Indications for surgery in patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR) are increasingly liberal in all clinical guidelines but the role of secondary outcome determinants (left atrial... Show moreAims Indications for surgery in patients with degenerative mitral regurgitation (DMR) are increasingly liberal in all clinical guidelines but the role of secondary outcome determinants (left atrial volume index >= 60 mL/m(2), atrial fibrillation, pulmonary artery systolic pressure >= 50 mmHg and moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation) and their impact on post-operative outcome remain disputed. Whether these secondary outcome markers are just reflective of the DMR severity or intrinsically affect survival after DMR surgery is uncertain and may have critical importance in the management of patients with DMR. To address these gaps of knowledge the present study gathered a large cohort of patients with quantified DMR, accounted for the number of secondary outcome markers and examined their independent impact on survival after surgical correction of the DMR. Methods and results The Mitral Regurgitation International DAtabase-Quantitative registry includes patients with isolated DMR from centres across North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Patient enrolment extended from January 2003 to January 2020. All patients undergoing mitral valve surgery within 1 year of registry enrolment were selected. A total of 2276 patients [65 (55-73) years, 32% male] across five centres met study eligibility criteria. Over a median follow-up of 5.6 (3.6 to 8.7) years, 278 patients (12.2%) died. In a comprehensive multivariable Cox regression model adjusted for age, EuroSCORE II, symptoms, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LV ESD) and DMR severity, the number of secondary outcome determinants was independently associated with post-operative all-cause mortality, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-2.20, P = 0.011], 1.78 (95% CI: 1.23-2.58, P = 0.002) and 2.58 (95% CI: 1.73-3.83, P < 0.0001) for patients with one, two, and three or four secondary outcome determinants, respectively. A model incorporating the number of secondary outcome determinants demonstrated a higher C-index and was significantly more concordant with post-operative mortality than models incorporating traditional Class I indications alone [the presence of symptoms (P = 0.0003), or LVEF <= 60% (P = 0.006), or LV ESD >= 40 mm (P = 0.014)], while there was no significant difference in concordance observed compared with a model that incorporated the number of Class I indications for surgery combined (P = 0.71). Conclusion In this large cohort of patients treated surgically for DMR, the presence and number of secondary outcome determinants was independently associated with post-surgical survival and demonstrated better outcome discrimination than traditional Class I indications for surgery. Randomised controlled trials are needed to determine if patients with severe DMR who demonstrate a cardiac phenotype with an increasing number of secondary outcome determinants would benefit from earlier surgery. Show less
Roumans, C.A.M.; Bogt, R.D. van der; Nieboer, D.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Rizopoulos, D.; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, I.; ... ; ProBar Study Grp 2022
Half of Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance endoscopies do not adhere to guideline recommendations. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed the clinical consequences of... Show moreHalf of Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance endoscopies do not adhere to guideline recommendations. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed the clinical consequences of nonadherence to recommended surveillance intervals and biopsy protocol. Data from BE surveillance patients were collected from endoscopy and pathology reports; questionnaires were distributed among endoscopists. We estimated the association between (non)adherence and (i) endoscopic curability of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), (ii) mortality, and (iii) misclassification of histological diagnosis according to a multistate hidden Markov model. Potential explanatory parameters (patient, facility, endoscopist variables) for nonadherence, related to clinical impact, were analyzed. In 726 BE patients, 3802 endoscopies were performed by 167 endoscopists. Adherence to surveillance interval was 16% for non-dysplastic (ND)BE, 55% for low-grade dysplasia (LGD), and 54% of endoscopies followed the Seattle protocol. There was no evidence to support the following statements: longer surveillance intervals or fewer biopsies than recommended affect endoscopic curability of EAC or cause-specific mortality (P > 0.20); insufficient biopsies affect the probability of NDBE (OR 1.0) or LGD (OR 2.3) being misclassified as high-grade dysplasia/EAC (P > 0.05). Better adherence was associated with older patients (OR 1.1), BE segments <= 2 cm (OR 8.3), visible abnormalities (OR 1.8, all P <= 0.05), endoscopists with a subspecialty (OR 3.2), and endoscopists who deemed histological diagnosis an adequate marker (OR 2.0). Clinical consequences of nonadherence to guidelines appeared to be limited with respect to endoscopic curability of EAC and mortality. This indicates that BE surveillance recommendations should be optimized to minimize the burden of endoscopies. Show less
McLernon, D.J.; Giardiello, D.; Calster, B. van; Wynants, L.; Geloven, N. van; Smeden, M. van; ... ; STRATOS Initiative 2022
Risk prediction models need thorough validation to assess their performance. Validation of models for survival outcomes poses challenges due to the censoring of observations and the varying time... Show moreRisk prediction models need thorough validation to assess their performance. Validation of models for survival outcomes poses challenges due to the censoring of observations and the varying time horizon at which predictions can be made. This article describes measures to evaluate predictions and the potential improvement in decision making from survival models based on Cox proportional hazards regression.As a motivating case study, the authors consider the prediction of the composite outcome of recurrence or death (the "event ") in patients with breast cancer after surgery. They developed a simple Cox regression model with 3 predictors, as in the Nottingham Prognostic Index, in 2982 women (1275 events over 5 years of follow-up) and externally validated this model in 686 women (285 events over 5 years). Improvement in performance was assessed after the addition of progesterone receptor as a prognostic biomarker.The model predictions can be evaluated across the full range of observed follow-up times or for the event occurring by the end of a fixed time horizon of interest. The authors first discuss recommended statistical measures that evaluate model performance in terms of discrimination, calibration, or overall performance. Further, they evaluate the potential clinical utility of the model to support clinical decision making according to a net benefit measure. They provide SAS and R code to illustrate internal and external validation.The authors recommend the proposed set of performance measures for transparent reporting of the validity of predictions from survival models. Show less
Background: Clinical prediction models are often not evaluated properly in specific settings or updated, for instance, with information from new markers. These key steps are needed such that models... Show moreBackground: Clinical prediction models are often not evaluated properly in specific settings or updated, for instance, with information from new markers. These key steps are needed such that models are fit for purpose and remain relevant in the long-term. We aimed to present an overview of methodological guidance for the evaluation (i.e., validation and impact assessment) and updating of clinical prediction models. Methods: We systematically searched nine databases from January 2000 to January 2022 for articles in English with methodological recommendations for the post-derivation stages of interest. Qualitative analysis was used to summarize the 70 selected guidance papers. Results: Key aspects for validation are the assessment of statistical performance using measures for discrimination (e.g., C-statistic) and calibration (e.g., calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope). For assessing impact or usefulness in clinical decision-making, recent papers advise using decision-analytic measures (e.g., the Net Benefit) over simplistic classification measures that ignore clinical consequences (e.g., accuracy, overall Net Reclassification Index). Commonly recommended methods for model updating are recalibration (i.e., adjustment of intercept or baseline hazard and/or slope), revision (i.e., re-estimation of individual predictor effects), and extension (i.e., addition of new markers). Additional methodological guidance is needed for newer types of updating (e.g., meta-model and dynamic updating) and machine learning-based models. Conclusion: Substantial guidance was found for model evaluation and more conventional updating of regression-based models. An important development in model evaluation is the introduction of a decision-analytic framework for assessing clinical usefulness. Consensus is emerging on methods for model updating. Show less
Early detection of severe asthma exacerbations through home monitoring data in patients with stable mild-to-moderate chronic asthma could help to timely adjust medication. We evaluated the... Show moreEarly detection of severe asthma exacerbations through home monitoring data in patients with stable mild-to-moderate chronic asthma could help to timely adjust medication. We evaluated the potential of machine learning methods compared to a clinical rule and logistic regression to predict severe exacerbations. We used daily home monitoring data from two studies in asthma patients (development: n = 165 and validation: n = 101 patients). Two ML models (XGBoost, one class SVM) and a logistic regression model provided predictions based on peak expiratory flow and asthma symptoms. These models were compared with an asthma action plan rule. Severe exacerbations occurred in 0.2% of all daily measurements in the development (154/92,787 days) and validation cohorts (94/40,185 days). The AUC of the best performing XGBoost was 0.85 (0.82-0.87) and 0.88 (0.86-0.90) for logistic regression in the validation cohort. The XGBoost model provided overly extreme risk estimates, whereas the logistic regression underestimated predicted risks. Sensitivity and specificity were better overall for XGBoost and logistic regression compared to one class SVM and the clinical rule. We conclude that ML models did not beat logistic regression in predicting short-term severe asthma exacerbations based on home monitoring data. Clinical application remains challenging in settings with low event incidence and high false alarm rates with high sensitivity. Show less
Background: Prediction of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk is challenging due to moderate performances of the known risk factors. We aimed to improve our previous risk prediction model ... Show moreBackground: Prediction of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk is challenging due to moderate performances of the known risk factors. We aimed to improve our previous risk prediction model (PredictCBC) by updated follow-up and including additional risk factors.Methods: We included data from 207,510 invasive breast cancer patients participating in 23 studies. In total, 8225 CBC events occurred over a median follow-up of 10.2 years. In addition to the previously included risk factors, PredictCBC-2.0 included CHEK2 c.1100delC, a 313 variant polygenic risk score (PRS-313), body mass index (BMI), and parity. Fine and Gray regression was used to fit the model. Calibration and a time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) at 5 and 10 years were assessed to determine the performance of the models. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the net benefit of PredictCBC-2.0 and previous PredictCBC models.Results: The discrimination of PredictCBC-2.0 at 10 years was higher than PredictCBC with an AUC of 0.65 (95% prediction intervals (PI) 0.56-0.74) versus 0.63 (95%Pl 0.54-0.71). PredictCBC-2.0 was well calibrated with an observed/ expected ratio at 10 years of 0.92 (95%Pl 0.34-2.54). Decision curve analysis for contralateral preventive mastectomy (CPM) showed the potential clinical utility of PredictCBC-2.0 between thresholds of 4 and 12% 10-year CBC risk for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers.Conclusions: Additional genetic information beyond BRCA1/2 germline mutations improved CBC risk prediction and might help tailor clinical decision-making toward CPM or alternative preventive strategies. Identifying patients who benefit from CPM, especially in the general breast cancer population, remains challenging. Show less
Introduction: In patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), the PaO2/FiO(2) ratio at the time of ARDS diagnosis is weakly associated with mortality. We hypothesized that setting a... Show moreIntroduction: In patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), the PaO2/FiO(2) ratio at the time of ARDS diagnosis is weakly associated with mortality. We hypothesized that setting a PaO2/FiO(2) threshold in 150 mm Hg at 24 h from moderate/severe ARDS diagnosis would improve predictions of death in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: We conducted an ancillary study in 1303 patients with moderate to severe ARDS managed with lung-protective ventilation enrolled consecutively in four prospective multicenter cohorts in a network of ICUs. The first three cohorts were pooled (n = 1000) as a testing cohort; the fourth cohort (n = 303) served as a confirmatory cohort. Based on the thresholds for PaO2/FiO(2) (150 mm Hg) and positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) (10 cm H2O), the patients were classified into four possible subsets at baseline and at 24 h using a standardized PEEP-FiO(2) approach: (I) PaO2/FiO(2) >= 150 at PEEP < 10, (II) PaO2/FiO(2) > 150 at PEEP >= 10, (III) PaO2/FiO(2) < 150 at PEEP < 10, and (IV) PaO2/FiO(2) < 150 at PEEP >= 10. Primary outcome was death in the ICU. Results: ICU mortalities were similar in the testing and confirmatory cohorts (375/1000, 37.5% vs. 112/303, 37.0%, respectively). At baseline, most patients from the testing cohort (n = 792/1000, 79.2%) had a PaO2/FiO(2) < 150, with similar mortality among the four subsets (p = 0.23). When assessed at 24 h, ICU mortality increased with an advance in the subset: 17.9%, 22.8%, 40.0%, and 49.3% (p < 0.0001). The findings were replicated in the confirmatory cohort (p < 0.0001). However, independent of the PEEP levels, patients with PaO2/FiO(2) < 150 at 24 h followed a distinct 30-day ICU survival compared with patients with PaO2/FiO(2) >= 150 (hazard ratio 2.8, 95% CI 2.2-3.5, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: Subsets based on PaO2/FiO(2) thresholds of 150 mm Hg assessed after 24 h of moderate/severe ARDS diagnosis are clinically relevant for establishing prognosis, and are helpful for selecting adjunctive therapies for hypoxemia and for enrolling patients into therapeutic trials. Show less
Huinink, S.T.; Jong, D.C. de; Nieboer, D.; Thomassen, D.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Dijkgraaf, M.G.W.; ... ; Vries, A.C. de 2022
Background Anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy is effective for the treatment of Crohn's disease. Cessation may be considered in patients with a low risk of relapse. We aimed to externally... Show moreBackground Anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy is effective for the treatment of Crohn's disease. Cessation may be considered in patients with a low risk of relapse. We aimed to externally validate and update our previously developed prediction model to estimate the risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF therapy. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study in 17 Dutch hospitals. Crohn's disease patients in clinical, biochemical or endoscopic remission were included after anti-TNF cessation. Primary outcome was a relapse necessitating treatment. Discrimination and calibration of the previously developed model were assessed. After external validation, the model was updated. The performance of the updated prediction model was assessed in internal-external validation and by using decision curve analysis. Results 486 patients were included with a median follow-up of 1.7 years. Relapse rates were 35 and 54% after 1 and 2 years. At external validation, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was equal to that found at the development of the model [c-statistic 0.58 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.62)], though the model was not well-calibrated on our cohort [calibration slope: 0.52 (0.28-0.76)]. After an update, a c-statistic of 0.60 (0.58-0.63) and calibration slope of 0.89 (0.69-1.09) were reported in internal-external validation. Conclusion Our previously developed and updated prediction model for the risk of relapse after cessation of anti-TNF in Crohn's disease shows reasonable performance. The use of the model may support clinical decision-making to optimize patient selection in whom anti-TNF can be withdrawn. Clinical validation is ongoing in a prospective randomized trial. Show less
