Context: Prediction of adult height (AH) is important in clinical management of short children. The conventional methods of Bayley-Pinneau (BP) or Roche-Wainer-Thissen (RWT) have limitations.... Show moreContext: Prediction of adult height (AH) is important in clinical management of short children. The conventional methods of Bayley-Pinneau (BP) or Roche-Wainer-Thissen (RWT) have limitations. Objective: We aimed to develop a set of algorithms for AH prediction in patients with idiopathic short stature (ISS) which are specific for combinations of predicting variables. Methods: Demographic and auxologic data were collected in childhood (1980s) and at AH (1990s). Data were collected by Dutch and German referral centers for pediatric endocrinology. A total of 292 subjects with ISS (219 male, 73 female) were enrolled. The population was randomly split into modeling (n = 235) and validation (n = 57) cohorts. Linear multi-regression analysis was performed with predicted AH (PAH) as response variable and combinations of chronological age (CA), baseline height, parental heights, relative bone age (BA/CA), birth weight, and sex as exploratory variables. Results: Ten models including different exploratory variables were selected with adjusted R-2 ranging from 0.84 to 0.78 and prediction errors from 3.16 to 3.68 cm. Applied to the validation cohort, mean residuals (PAH minus observed AH) ranged from -0.29 to -0.82 cm, while the conventional methods showed some overprediction (BP: +0.53 cm; RWT: +1.33 cm; projected AH: +3.81 cm). There was no significant trend of residuals with PAH or any exploratory variables, in contrast to BP and projected AH. Conclusion: This set of 10 multi-regression algorithms, developed specifically for children with ISS, provides a flexible tool for AH prediction with better accuracy than the conventional methods. Show less
The terms 'idiopathic short stature' (ISS) and 'small for gestational age' (SGA) were first used in the 1970s and 1980s. ISS described non-syndromic short children with undefined aetiology who did... Show moreThe terms 'idiopathic short stature' (ISS) and 'small for gestational age' (SGA) were first used in the 1970s and 1980s. ISS described non-syndromic short children with undefined aetiology who did not have growth hormone (GH) deficiency, chromosomal defects, chronic illness, dysmorphic features or low birth weight. Despite originating in the premolecular era, ISS is still used as a diagnostic label today. The term 'SGA' was adopted by paediatric endocrinologists to describe children born with low birth weight and/or length, some of whom may experience lack of catch-up growth and present with short stature. GH treatment was approved by the FDA for short children born SGA in 2001, and by the EMA in 2003, and for the treatment of ISS in the US, but not Europe, in 2003. These approvals strengthened the terms 'SGA' and '155' as clinical entities. While clinical and hormonal diagnostic techniques remain important, it is the emergence of genetic investigations that have led to numerous molecular discoveries in both ISS and SGA subjects. The primary message of this article is that the labels ISS and SGA are not definitive diagnoses. We propose that the three disciplines of clinical evaluation, hormonal investigation and genetic sequencing should have equal status in the hierarchy of short stature assessments and should complement each other to identify the true pathogenesis in poorly growing patients. Show less
