This thesis contains four empirical studies on the effects of social protection. In the first two studies, I use administrative microdata and employ quasi-experimental methods in which I compare... Show moreThis thesis contains four empirical studies on the effects of social protection. In the first two studies, I use administrative microdata and employ quasi-experimental methods in which I compare a treatment group with a control group. Study 1 concludes that mandatory activation programs for young welfare recipients do not contribute to employment or to enrollment in education during an economic downturn, but are harmful to income protection. Study 2 concludes that the unemployment shock of a male partner has a large and persistent effect on household income and only 2-5% of this income loss is compensated by increases in female partner’s earnings from work. The last two studies use OECD panel data and employ international comparative research methods. Study 3 concludes that constitutional rights to social security have a positive effect on social expenditure, which is larger for expenditure targeted at the unemployed, a group that is perceived as less deserving by the public opinion compared to the elderly or disabled. Study 4 concludes that Social expenditure reduces poverty and inequality without being harmful for GDP growth. Targeted schemes are most effective in reducing poverty, while social expenditure types with a universal character are more effective in reducing inequality. Show less
Recently, Tanzania witnessed a revival of economic planning that explicitly aimed to combine rapid economic growth with accelerated structural transformation of the economy. To achieve these... Show moreRecently, Tanzania witnessed a revival of economic planning that explicitly aimed to combine rapid economic growth with accelerated structural transformation of the economy. To achieve these planning targets would require a relatively modest drop in the share of agriculture in GDP, but a dramatic fall in its share in employment by 2025. Tanzanian planners assume that labour is locked in agriculture because agricultural productivity is low, from which they conclude that, to release labour to fuel the expansion of manufacturing, it is imperative to raise agricultural productivity by appropriate land policies, leveraging private investment and developing public–private partnerships. We argue that, analytically, this planning argument leaves out the possibility that causality may run the other way – from high labour retention in agriculture to low agricultural productivity – and that, empirically, the observed patterns inherent in actual processes of economic transformation in Tanzania do not tally well with the assumptions of planners. More specifically, in so far as labour flows out of agriculture, it flows towards informal-sector activities, both rural and urban, rather than towards formal manufacturing. Show less
