Prognostic models can strongly support individualized care provision and well-informed shared decision making. There has been an upsurge of prognostic research in the field of nephrology, but the... Show morePrognostic models can strongly support individualized care provision and well-informed shared decision making. There has been an upsurge of prognostic research in the field of nephrology, but the uptake of prognostic models in clinical practice remains limited. Therefore, we map out the research field of prognostic models for kidney patients and provide directions on how to proceed from here. We performed a scoping review of studies developing, validating, or updating a prognostic model for patients with CKD. We searched all published models in PubMed and Embase and report predicted outcomes, methodological quality, and validation and/or updating efforts. We found 602 studies, of which 30.1% concerned CKD populations, 31.6% dialysis populations, and 38.4% kidney transplantation populations. The most frequently predicted outcomes were mortality (n=129), kidney disease progression (n=75), and kidney graft survival (n=54). Most studies provided discrimination measures (80.4%), but much less showed calibration results (43.4%). Of the 415 development studies, 28.0% did not perform any validation and 57.6% performed only internal validation. Moreover, only 111 models (26.7%) were externally validated either in the development study itself or in an independent external validation study. Finally, in 45.8% of development studies no useable version of the model was reported. To conclude, many prognostic models have been developed for patients with CKD, mainly for outcomes related to kidney disease progression and patient/graft survival. To bridge the gap between prediction research and kidney patient care, patient-reported outcomes, methodological rigor, complete reporting of prognostic models, external validation, updating, and impact assessment urgently need more attention. Show less
Introduction: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is an aggressive cancer that primarily arises from the pleura (MPM) or peritoneum (MPeM), mostly due to asbestos exposure. This study reviewed the Dutch... Show moreIntroduction: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is an aggressive cancer that primarily arises from the pleura (MPM) or peritoneum (MPeM), mostly due to asbestos exposure. This study reviewed the Dutch population-based incidence, treatment and survival since the national ban on asbestos in 1993. Materials and methods: Patients with MPM or MPeM diagnosed from 1993 to 2018 were selected from the Dutch cancer registry. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated for (age-specific and sex-specific) revised European standardised incidence rates (RESR). Treatment pattern and Kaplan-Meier overall survival analyses were performed. Results: In total, 12 168 patients were included in the study. For male patients younger than 80 years, the MM incidence significantly decreased in the last decade (APC ranging between -9.4% and -1.8%, p<0.01). Among both male and female patients aged over 80 years, the incidence significantly increased during the entire study period (APC 3.3% and 4.6%, respectively, p<0.01). From 2003 onwards, the use of systemic chemotherapy increased especially for MPM (from 9.3% to 39.4%). Overall, 62.2% of patients received no antitumour treatment. The most common reasons for not undergoing antitumour treatment were patient preference (42%) and performance status (25.6%). The median overall survival improved from 7.3 (1993-2003) to 8.9 (2004-2011) and 9.3 months from 2012 to 2018 (p<0.001). Conclusion: The peak of MM incidence was reached around 2010 in the Netherlands, and currently the incidence is declining in most age groups. The use of systemic chemotherapy increased from 2003, which likely resulted in improved overall survival over time. The majority of patients do not receive treatment though and prognosis is still poor. Show less
Jong, Y. de; Ramspek, C.L.; Zoccali, C.; Jager, K.J.; Dekker, F.W.; Diepen, M. van 2021
Over the past few years, a large number of prediction models have been published, often of poor methodological quality. Seemingly objective and straightforward, prediction models provide a risk... Show moreOver the past few years, a large number of prediction models have been published, often of poor methodological quality. Seemingly objective and straightforward, prediction models provide a risk estimate for the outcome of interest, usually based on readily available clinical information. Yet, using models of substandard methodological rigour, especially without external validation, may result in incorrect risk estimates and consequently misclassification. To assess and combat bias in prediction research the prediction model risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) was published in 2019. This risk of bias (ROB) tool includes four domains and 20 signalling questions highlighting methodological flaws, and provides guidance in assessing the applicability of the model. In this paper, the PROBAST will be discussed, along with an in-depth review of two commonly encountered pitfalls in prediction modelling that may induce bias: overfitting and composite endpoints. We illustrate the prevalence of potential bias in prediction models with a meta-review of 50 systematic reviews that used the PROBAST to appraise their included studies, thus including 1510 different studies on 2104 prediction models. All domains showed an unclear or high ROB; these results were markedly stable over time, highlighting the urgent need for attention on bias in prediction research. This article aims to do just that by providing (1) the clinician with tools to evaluate the (methodological) quality of a clinical prediction model, (2) the researcher working on a review with methods to appraise the included models, and (3) the researcher developing a model with suggestions to improve model quality. Show less
Background. Initiation of renal replacement therapy often results from a combination of kidney function deterioration and symptoms related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. We... Show moreBackground. Initiation of renal replacement therapy often results from a combination of kidney function deterioration and symptoms related to chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. We investigated the association between kidney function decline and symptom development in patients with advanced CKD.Methods. In the European Quality study on treatment in advanced CKD (EQUAL study), a European prospective cohort study, patients with advanced CKD aged >= 65 years and a kidney function that dropped <20 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were followed for 1 year. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the association between kidney function decline and symptom development. The sum score for symptom number ranged from 0 to 33 and for overall symptom severity from 0 to 165, using the Dialysis Symptom Index.Results. At least one kidney function estimate with symptom number or overall symptom severity was available for 1109 and 1019 patients, respectively. The mean (95% confidence interval) annual kidney function decline was 1.70 (1.32; 2.08) mL/min/1.73 m(2). The mean overall increase in symptom number and severity was 0.73 (0.28; 1.19) and 2.93 (1.34; 4.52) per year, respectively. A cross-sectional association between the level of kidney function and symptoms was lacking. Furthermore, kidney function at cohort entry was not associated with symptom development. However, each mL/min/1.73 m(2) of annual kidney function decline was associated with an extra annual increase of 0.23 (0.07; 0.39) in the number of symptoms and 0.87 (0.35; 1.40) in overall symptom severity.Conclusions. A faster kidney function decline was associated with a steeper increase in both symptom number and severity. Considering the modest association, our results seem to suggest that repeated thorough assessment of symptom development during outpatient clinic visits, in addition to the monitoring of kidney function decline, is important for clinical decision-making. Show less
Voskamp, P.W.M.; Diepen, M. van; Evans, M.; Caskey, F.J.; Torino, C.; Postorino, M.; ... ; EQUAL Study Investigators 2019
Background. Quality of life (QoL) is an important outcome in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients feel that symptoms are an important determinant of QoL. However, this relation is unknown. The... Show moreBackground. Quality of life (QoL) is an important outcome in chronic kidney disease (CKD). Patients feel that symptoms are an important determinant of QoL. However, this relation is unknown. The aims of this study were to investigate the impact of the number and severity of symptoms on QoL in elderly pre-dialysis patients, assessed by both the effect of symptoms and their importance relative to kidney function, and other clinical variables on QoL.Methods. The European Quality study (EQUAL study) is an ongoing European prospective follow-up study in late Stage 4/5 CKD patients aged >= 65 years. We used patients included between March 2012 and December 2015. Patients scored their symptoms with the Dialysis Symptom Index, and QoL with the research and development-36 (RAND-36) item Health Survey (RAND-36). The RAND-36 results in a physical component summary (PCS) and a mental component summary (MCS). We used linear regression to estimate the relation between symptoms and QoL at baseline and after 6 months, and to calculate the variance in QoL explained by symptoms.Results. The baseline questionnaire was filled in by 1079 (73%) patients (median age 75 years, 66% male, 98% Caucasian), and the follow up questionnaire by 627 (42%) patients. At baseline, every additional symptom changed MCS with -0.81 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.91 to -0.71] and PCS with -0.50 (95% CI: -0.62 to -0.39). In univariable analyses, number of symptoms explained 22% of MCS variance and 11% of PCS variance, whereas estimated glomerular filtration rate only explained 1%.Conclusions. In elderly CKD Stage 4/5 patients, symptoms have a substantial impact on QoL. This indicates symptoms should have a more prominent role in clinical decision-making. Show less
Schat, A.; Noorden, M.S. van; Amelsvoort, T. van; Giltay, E.J.; Wee, N.J.A. van der; Noom, M.J.; ... ; Zitman, F.G. 2017
