Aim: This paper investigates the conditions for inclusive design of regenerative medicine interventions from a bioethical perspective, taking regenerative valve implants as a showcase. Methods: A... Show moreAim: This paper investigates the conditions for inclusive design of regenerative medicine interventions from a bioethical perspective, taking regenerative valve implants as a showcase. Methods: A value hierarchy is construed to translate the value of justice into norms and design requirements for inclusive design of regenerative valve implants. Results: Three norms are proposed and translated into design requirements: regenerative valve implants should be designed to promote equal opportunity to good health for all potential users; equal respect for all potential users should be shown; and the implants should be designed to be accessible to everyone in need. Conclusion: The norms and design requirements help to design regenerative valve implants that are appropriate, respectful and available for everyone in need. Show less
Hempenius, M.; Bots, S.H.; Groenwold, R.H.H.; Boer, A. de; Klungel, O.H.; Gardarsdottir, H. 2023
Purpose: During the first waves of the coronavirus pandemic, evidence on potential effective treatments was urgently needed. Results from observational studies on the effectiveness of... Show morePurpose: During the first waves of the coronavirus pandemic, evidence on potential effective treatments was urgently needed. Results from observational studies on the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) were conflicting, potentially due to biases. We aimed to assess the quality of observational studies on HCQ and its relation to effect sizes.Methods: PubMed was searched on 15 March 2021 for observational studies on the effectiveness of in-hospital use of HCQ in COVID-19 patients, published between 01/01/2020 and 01/03/2021 on. Study quality was assessed using the ROBINS-I tool. Association between study quality and study characteristics (journal ranking, publication date, and time between submission and publication) and differences between effects sizes found in observational studies compared to those found in RCTs, were assessed using Spearman's correlation.Results: Eighteen of the 33 (55%) included observational studies were scored as critical risk of bias, eleven (33%) as serious risk and only four (12%) as moderate risk of bias. Biases were most often scored as critical in the domains related to selection of participants (n = 13, 39%) and bias due to confounding (n = 8, 24%). There were no significant associations found between the study quality and the characteristics nor between the study quality and the effect estimates.Discussion: Overall, the quality of observational HCQ studies was heterogeneous. Synthesis of evidence of effectiveness of HCQ in COVID-19 should focus on RCTs and carefully consider the added value and quality of observational evidence. Show less
Aim: Pragmatic clinical trials (PCTs) are randomized trials implemented through routine clinical practice, where design parameters of traditional randomized controlled trials are modified to... Show moreAim: Pragmatic clinical trials (PCTs) are randomized trials implemented through routine clinical practice, where design parameters of traditional randomized controlled trials are modified to increase generalizability. However, this may introduce statistical challenges. We aimed to identify these challenges and discuss possible solutions leading to best practice recommendations for the design and analysis of PCTs. Methods: A modified Delphi method was used to reach consensus among a panel of 11 experts in clinical trials and statistics. Statistical issues were identified in a focused literature review and aggregated with insights and possible solutions from experts collected through a series of survey iterations. Issues were ranked according to their importance. Results: Twenty-seven articles were included and combined with experts' insight to generate a list of issues categorized into participants, recruiting sites, randomization, blinding and intervention, outcome (selection and measurement) and data analysis. Consensus was reached about the most important issues: risk of participants' attrition, heterogeneity of "usual care" across sites, absence of blinding, use of a subjective endpoint and data analysis aligned with the trial estimand. Potential issues should be anticipated and preferably be addressed in the trial protocol. The experts provided solutions regarding data collection and data analysis, which were considered of equal importance. Discussion: A set of important statistical issues in PCTs was identified and approaches were suggested to anticipate and/or minimize these through data analysis. Any impact of choosing a pragmatic design feature should be gauged in the light of the trial estimand. Show less
Fairness and bias are crucial concepts in artificial intelligence, yet they are relatively ignored in machine learning applications in clinical psychiatry. We computed fairness metrics and present... Show moreFairness and bias are crucial concepts in artificial intelligence, yet they are relatively ignored in machine learning applications in clinical psychiatry. We computed fairness metrics and present bias mitigation strategies using a model trained on clinical mental health data. We collected structured data related to the admission, diagnosis, and treatment of patients in the psychiatry department of the University Medical Center Utrecht. We trained a machine learning model to predict future administrations of benzodiazepines on the basis of past data. We found that gender plays an unexpected role in the predictions-this constitutes bias. Using the AI Fairness 360 package, we implemented reweighing and discrimination-aware regularization as bias mitigation strategies, and we explored their implications for model performance. This is the first application of bias exploration and mitigation in a machine learning model trained on real clinical psychiatry data. Show less
Fu, E.L.; Diepen, M. van; Xu, Y.; Trevisan, M.; Dekker, F.W.; Zoccali, C.; ... ; Carrero, J.J. 2021
Observational pharmacoepidemiological studies using routinely collected healthcare data are increasingly being used in the field of nephrology to answer questions on the effectiveness and safety of... Show moreObservational pharmacoepidemiological studies using routinely collected healthcare data are increasingly being used in the field of nephrology to answer questions on the effectiveness and safety of medications. This review discusses a number of biases that may arise in such studies and proposes solutions to minimize them during the design or statistical analysis phase. We first describe designs to handle confounding by indication (e.g. active comparator design) and methods to investigate the influence of unmeasured confounding, such as the E-value, the use of negative control outcomes and control cohorts. We next discuss prevalent user and immortal time biases in pharmacoepidemiology research and how these can be prevented by focussing on incident users and applying either landmarking, using a time-varying exposure, or the cloning, censoring and weighting method. Lastly, we briefly discuss the common issues with missing data and misclassification bias. When these biases are properly accounted for, pharmacoepidemiological observational studies can provide valuable information for clinical practice. Show less
The "significance filter" refers to focusing exclusively on statistically significant results. Since frequentist properties such as unbiasedness and coverage are valid only before the data have... Show moreThe "significance filter" refers to focusing exclusively on statistically significant results. Since frequentist properties such as unbiasedness and coverage are valid only before the data have been observed, there are no guarantees if we condition on significance. In fact, the significance filter leads to overestimation of the magnitude of the parameter, which has been called the "winner's curse." It can also lead to undercoverage of the confidence interval. Moreover, these problems become more severe if the power is low. These issues clearly deserve our attention. They have been studied mostly through empirical observation and simulation, while there are relatively few mathematical results. Here we study them both from the frequentist and the Bayesian perspective. We prove that the relative bias of the magnitude is a decreasing function of the power and that the usual confidence interval undercovers when the power is less than 50%. We conclude that it is important to apply the appropriate amount of shrinkage to counter the winner's curse. Show less
Background: SARS-CoV-2 is straining health care systems globally. The burden on hospitals during the pandemic could be reduced by implementing prediction models that can discriminate patients who... Show moreBackground: SARS-CoV-2 is straining health care systems globally. The burden on hospitals during the pandemic could be reduced by implementing prediction models that can discriminate patients who require hospitalization from those who do not. The COVID-19 vulnerability (C-19) index, a model that predicts which patients will be admitted to hospital for treatment of pneumonia or pneumonia proxies, has been developed and proposed as a valuable tool for decision-making during the pandemic. However, the model is at high risk of bias according to the "prediction model risk of bias assessment" criteria, and it has not been externally validated.Objective: The aim of this study was to externally validate the C-19 index across a range of health care settings to determine how well it broadly predicts hospitalization due to pneumonia in COVID-19 cases.Methods: We followed the Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (OHDSI) framework for external validation to assess the reliability of the C-19 index. We evaluated the model on two different target populations, 41,381 patients who presented with SARS-CoV-2 at an outpatient or emergency department visit and 9,429,285 patients who presented with influenza or related symptoms during an outpatient or emergency department visit, to predict their risk of hospitalization with pneumonia during the following 0-30 days. In total, we validated the model across a network of 14 databases spanning the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.Results: The internal validation performance of the C-19 index had a C statistic of 0.73, and the calibration was not reported by the authors. When we externally validated it by transporting it to SARS-CoV-2 data, the model obtained C statistics of 0.36, 0.53 (0.473-0.584) and 0.56 (0.488-0.636) on Spanish, US, and South Korean data sets, respectively. The calibration was poor, with the model underestimating risk. When validated on 12 data sets containing influenza patients across the OHDSI network, the C statistics ranged between 0.40 and 0.68.Conclusions: Our results show that the discriminative performance of the C-19 index model is low for influenza cohorts and even worse among patients with COVID-19 in the United States, Spain, and South Korea. These results suggest that C-19 should not be used to aid decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of performing external validation across a range of settings, especially when a prediction model is being extrapolated to a different population. In the field of prediction, extensive validation is required to create appropriate trust in a model. Show less
The role of P-values for null hypothesis testing is under debate. We aim to explore the impact of the significance threshold on estimates for the strengths of associations ("effects") and the... Show moreThe role of P-values for null hypothesis testing is under debate. We aim to explore the impact of the significance threshold on estimates for the strengths of associations ("effects") and the implications for different types of epidemiological research. We consider situations with normal distribution of a true effect, while varying the effect size. We confirm the occurrence of "testimation bias": estimating effect size only if the test was statistically significant leads to exaggerated results. The absolute bias is largest for true effects around 0.7 times the size of the standard error: +220% bias if effects are selected after testing with P < .05, and +335% if tested with P P < .20 (+130%) and larger true effect sizes. We conclude that a lower P-value threshold for declaring statistical significance implies more exaggeration in an estimated effect. This implies that if a low threshold is used, effect size estimation should not be attempted, for example in the context of selecting promising discoveries that need further validation. Confirmatory studies, such as randomized controlled trials, might stick to the 0.05 threshold if adequately powered, while prediction modelling studies should use an even higher threshold, such as 0.2, to avoid strongly biased effect estimates. Show less
Study quality depends on a number of factors, one of them being internal validity. Such validity can be affected by random and systematic error, the latter also known as bias. Both make it more... Show moreStudy quality depends on a number of factors, one of them being internal validity. Such validity can be affected by random and systematic error, the latter also known as bias. Both make it more difficult to assess a correct frequency or the true relationship between exposure and outcome. Where random error can be addressed by increasing the sample size, a systematic error in the design, the conduct or the reporting of a study is more problematic. In this article, we will focus on bias, discuss different types of selection bias (sampling bias, confounding by indication, incidence-prevalence bias, attrition bias, collider stratification bias and publication bias) and information bias (recall bias, interviewer bias, observer bias and lead-time bias), indicate the type of studies where they most frequently occur and provide suggestions for their prevention. Show less
Smeden, M. van; Lash, T.L.; Groenwold, R.H.H. 2020
Epidemiologists are often confronted with datasets to analyse which contain measurement error due to, for instance, mistaken data entries, inaccurate recordings and measurement instrument or... Show moreEpidemiologists are often confronted with datasets to analyse which contain measurement error due to, for instance, mistaken data entries, inaccurate recordings and measurement instrument or procedural errors. If the effect of measurement error is misjudged, the data analyses are hampered and the validity of the study's inferences may be affected. In this paper, we describe five myths that contribute to misjudgments about measurement error, regarding expected structure, impact and solutions to mitigate the problems resulting from mismeasurements. The aim is to clarify these measurement error misconceptions. We show that the influence of measurement error in an epidemiological data analysis can play out in ways that go beyond simple heuristics, such as heuristics about whether or not to expect attenuation of the effect estimates. Whereas we encourage epidemiologists to deliberate about the structure and potential impact of measurement error in their analyses, we also recommend exercising restraint when making claims about the magnitude or even direction of effect of measurement error if not accompanied by statistical measurement error corrections or quantitative bias analysis. Suggestions for alleviating the problems or investigating the structure and magnitude of measurement error are given. Show less
Nab, L.; Groenwold, R.H.H.; Welsing, P.M.J.; Smeden, M. van 2019
In randomised trials, continuous endpoints are often measured with some degree of error. This study explores the impact of ignoring measurement error and proposes methods to improve statistical... Show moreIn randomised trials, continuous endpoints are often measured with some degree of error. This study explores the impact of ignoring measurement error and proposes methods to improve statistical inference in the presence of measurement error. Three main types of measurement error in continuous endpoints are considered: classical, systematic, and differential. For each measurement error type, a corrected effect estimator is proposed. The corrected estimators and several methods for confidence interval estimation are tested in a simulation study. These methods combine information about error-prone and error-free measurements of the endpoint in individuals not included in the trial (external calibration sample). We show that, if measurement error in continuous endpoints is ignored, the treatment effect estimator is unbiased when measurement error is classical, while Type-II error is increased at a given sample size. Conversely, the estimator can be substantially biased when measurement error is systematic or differential. In those cases, bias can largely be prevented and inferences improved upon using information from an external calibration sample, of which the required sample size increases as the strength of the association between the error-prone and error-free endpoint decreases. Measurement error correction using already a small (external) calibration sample is shown to improve inferences and should be considered in trials with error-prone endpoints. Implementation of the proposed correction methods is accommodated by a new software package for R. Show less
Panman, J.L.; Y.Y. to; Ende, E.L. van der; Poos, J.M.; Jiskoot, L.C.; Meeter, L.H.H.; ... ; Hafkemeijer, A. 2019
Purpose: Pathogenic variants in ARID1B are one of the most frequent causes of intellectual disability (ID) as determined by large-scale exome sequencing studies. Most studies published thus far... Show morePurpose: Pathogenic variants in ARID1B are one of the most frequent causes of intellectual disability (ID) as determined by large-scale exome sequencing studies. Most studies published thus far describe clinically diagnosed Coffin-Siris patients (ARID1BCSS) and it is unclear whether these data are representative for patients identified through sequencing of unbiased ID cohorts (ARID1B-ID). We therefore sought to determine genotypic and phenotypic differences between ARID1B-ID and ARID1B-CSS. In parallel, we investigated the effect of different methods of phenotype reporting.Methods: Clinicians entered clinical data in an extensive webbased survey.Results: 79 ARID1B-CSS and 64 ARID1B-ID patients were included. CSS-associated dysmorphic features, such as thick eyebrows, long eyelashes, thick alae nasi, long and/or broad philtrum, small nails and small or absent fifth distal phalanx and hypertrichosis, were observed significantly more often (p < 0.001) in ARID1B-CSS patients. No other significant differences were identified.Conclusion: There are only minor differences between ARID1BID and ARID1B-CSS patients. ARID1B-related disorders seem to consist of a spectrum, and patients should be managed similarly. We demonstrated that data collection methods without an explicit option to report the absence of a feature (such as most Human Phenotype Ontology-based methods) tended to underestimate gene-related features. Show less
