Objective: To investigate the test-retest precision and to report the longitudinal change in cartilage thickness, the percentage of knees with progression and the predictive value of the machine... Show moreObjective: To investigate the test-retest precision and to report the longitudinal change in cartilage thickness, the percentage of knees with progression and the predictive value of the machine-learning-estimated structural progression score (s-score) for cartilage thickness loss in the IMI-APPROACH cohort - an exploratory, 5-center, 2-year prospective follow-up cohort. Design: Quantitative cartilage morphology at baseline and at least one follow-up visit was available for 270 of the 297 IMI-APPROACH participants (78% females, age: 66.4 +/- 7.1 years, body mass index (BMI): 28.1 +/- 5.3 kg/m(2), 55% with radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA)) from 1.5T or 3T MRI. Test-retest precision (root mean square coefficient of variation) was assessed from 34 participants. To define progressor knees, smallest detectable change (SDC) thresholds were computed from 11 participants with longitudinal test-retest scans. Binary logistic regression was used to evaluate the odds of progression in femorotibial cartilage thickness (threshold: similar to 211 mu m) for the quartile with the highest vs the quartile with the lowest s-scores. Results: The test-retest precision was 69 mu m for the entire femorotibial joint. Over 24 months, mean cartilage thickness loss in the entire femorotibial joint reached -174 mu m (95% CI: [-207, -141] mu m, 32.7% with progression). The s-score was not associated with 24-month progression rates by MRI (OR: 1.30, 95% CI: [0.52, 3.28]). Conclusion: IMI-APPROACH successfully enrolled participants with substantial cartilage thickness loss, although the machine-learning-estimated s-score was not observed to be predictive of cartilage thickness loss. IMI-APPROACH data will be used in subsequent analyses to evaluate the impact of clinical, imaging, biomechanical and biochemical biomarkers on cartilage thickness loss and to refine the machine-learning-based s-score. (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Osteoarthritis Research Society International. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Show less
