Background: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment... Show moreBackground: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics.Methods: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities.Results: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29 -32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%.Conclusions: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
Chronic pain is a significant health problem that greatly impacts the quality of life of individual patients and imparts high costs to society. Despite intense research effort and progress in our... Show moreChronic pain is a significant health problem that greatly impacts the quality of life of individual patients and imparts high costs to society. Despite intense research effort and progress in our understanding of the mechanistic and molecular basis of pain, chronic pain remains a significant clinical problem that has few effective therapies Throughout the various chapters we have highlighted some important conceptual and experimental flaws in the way that pain signalling and pharmacological activity are characterised and translated across species and disease conditions. The common denominator of the work presented here is the requirement for accurate characterisation of exposure-response relationships, without which the dose rationale for the progression of a molecule cannot justified, whether drugs are aimed at symptomatic relief, disease modification or prophylaxis. In addition to a comprehensive review of the mechanisms underlying pain signalling and symptoms, the work developed here focuses on three different aspects of research underpinning the use of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic relationships. First, we have explored the requirements for the characterisation of behavioural measures of pain during the early screening of candidate molecules, shedding light onto the shortcomings of experimental protocols commonly used in preclinical research. Then we introduced the prerequisites for the parameterisation of pain behaviour to ensure accurate translation of the pharmacological properties across species as well as for bridging across different phases of development. Lastly, an attempt was made to model clinical response in chronic inflammatory pain and to establish correlations between symptom improvement and the underlying pharmacological effects using biomarkers. In addition our work showed how clinical trial simulations can be used as a design tool, enabling the evaluation of a variety of scenarios that disentangle the contribution of pharmacology from the confounding effects of placebo and disease dynamics. Show less
