Multi-state models are used to describe how individuals transition through different states over time. The distribution of the time spent in different states, referred to as 'length of stay', is... Show moreMulti-state models are used to describe how individuals transition through different states over time. The distribution of the time spent in different states, referred to as 'length of stay', is often of interest. Methods for estimating expected length of stay in a given state are well established. The focus of this paper is on the distribution of the time spent in different states conditional on the complete pathway taken through the states, which we call 'conditional length of stay'. This work is motivated by questions about length of stay in hospital wards and intensive care units among patients hospitalised due to Covid-19. Conditional length of stay estimates are useful as a way of summarising individuals' transitions through the multi-state model, and also as inputs to mathematical models used in planning hospital capacity requirements. We describe non-parametric methods for estimating conditional length of stay distributions in a multi-state model in the presence of censoring, including conditional expected length of stay (CELOS). Methods are described for an illness-death model and then for the more complex motivating example. The methods are assessed using a simulation study and shown to give unbiased estimates of CELOS, whereas naive estimates of CELOS based on empirical averages are biased in the presence of censoring. The methods are applied to estimate conditional length of stay distributions for individuals hospitalised due to Covid-19 in the UK, using data on 42,980 individuals hospitalised from March to July 2020 from the COVID19 Clinical Information Network. Show less
OBJECTIVES: Good perioperative care is aimed at rapid recovery, without complications or readmissions. Length of stay (LOS) is influenced not only by perioperative care routines but also by patient... Show moreOBJECTIVES: Good perioperative care is aimed at rapid recovery, without complications or readmissions. Length of stay (LOS) is influenced not only by perioperative care routines but also by patient factors, tumour factors, treatment characteristics and complications. The present study examines variation in LOS between hospitals after minimally invasive lung resections for both complicated and uncomplicated patients to assess whether LOS is a hospital characteristic influenced by local perioperative routines or other factors.METHODS: Dutch Lung Cancer Audit (surgery) data were used. Median LOS was calculated on hospital level, stratified by the severity of complications. Lowest quartile (short) LOS per hospital, corrected for case-mix factors by multivariable logistic regression, was presented in funnel plots. We correlated short LOS in complicated versus uncomplicated patients to assess whether short LOS clustered in the same hospitals regardless of complications.RESULTS: Data from 6055 patients in 42 hospitals were included. Median LOS in uncomplicated patients varied from 3 to 8 days between hospitals and increased most markedly for patients with major complications. Considerable between-hospital variation persisted after case-mix correction, but more in uncomplicated than complicated patients. Short LOS in uncomplicated and complicated patients were significantly correlated (r = 0.53, P < 0.001). CCONCLUSIONS: LOS after minimally invasive anatomical lung resections varied between hospitals particularly in uncomplicated patients. The significant correlation between short LOS in uncomplicated and complicated patients suggests that LOS is a hospital characteristic potentially influenced by local processes. Standardizing and optimizing perioperative care could help limit practice variation with improved LOS and complication rates. Show less
Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the clinical relevance of postcarotid endarterectomy hypertension (PEH) by investigating the effect of PEH on hospital length of stay (LOS)... Show moreObjective: The objective of this study was to determine the clinical relevance of postcarotid endarterectomy hypertension (PEH) by investigating the effect of PEH on hospital length of stay (LOS) and by investigating short-term and long-term complications of PEH. In addition, risk factors for PEH were determined.Methods: A single-center retrospective cohort study was performed. Demographic, preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative outcomes of 192 patients undergoing carotid endarterectomy were evaluated. Outcomes were compared between patients with PEH and patients without PEH. PEH was defined as an acute systolic blood pressure (SBP) rise >170 mm Hg or persistent SBP >150 mm Hg on the ward and leading to the consultation of an internist. The overall survival and event-free survival were compared using a Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox regression analysis. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine risk factors for PEH.Results: PEH developed in 44 of 192 patients (25%). Preoperative hypertension (SBP >150 mm Hg) was determined to be a risk factor for PEH (odds ratio, 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6-6.9). Hospital LOS was prolonged in patients with PEH compared with patients without PEH (median LOS of 5 days vs 3 days, respectively; P <.001). No difference in the occurrence of ischemic neurologic events or rebleeding during hospitalization was observed (P =.58 and P =.72, respectively). Cardiovascular and ischemic neurologic events during follow-up did not occur more often in patients with PEH than in patients without PEH (P =.46). There was no difference in mortality between the PEH and non-PEH groups (hazard ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.6-4.3). The same applies to the event-free survival (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.4-1.7). Combined event-free survival for stroke and myocardial infarction was 92% (95% CI, 87%-97%) at 2 years for patients without PEH and 86% (95% CI, 74%-98%) at 2 years for patients with PEH (P =.25). Event-free survival for mortality was 90% (95% CI, 85%-96%) at 2 years for patients without PEH and 94% (95% CI, 86%-100%) at 2 years for patients with PEH (P =.36).Conclusions: Patients with PEH had a significant increase in hospital LOS. However, adverse short-term and long-term events did not occur more often in patients with PEH. High preoperative SBP was identified as a risk factor for PEH; no other demographic and clinical variables were associated with PEH. Show less
Benjamens, S.; Pol, R.A.; Berger, S.P.; Glaudemans, A.W.J.M.; Dibbets-Schneider, P.; Slart, R.H.J.A.; Geus-Oei, L.F. de 2020
Objectives Duration of delayed graft function (DGF) and length of hospital stay (LOS) are outcomes of interest in an era that warrants increased efficacy of transplant care whereas renal allografts... Show moreObjectives Duration of delayed graft function (DGF) and length of hospital stay (LOS) are outcomes of interest in an era that warrants increased efficacy of transplant care whereas renal allografts originate increasingly from marginal donors. While earlier studies investigate the predictive capability of a single renal scintigraphy, this study focuses on the value for both DGF duration and LOS of consecutively performed scintigraphies. Methods From 2011 to 2014, renal transplant recipients referred for a Tc-99m MAG3 renal scintigraphy were included in a single-center retrospective study. Primary endpoints were DGF duration and LOS. Both the first (<= 3 days) and second scintigraphies (3-7 days after transplantation) were analyzed using a 4-grade qualitative scale and quantitative indices (TFS, cTER, MUC10, average upslope). Results We evaluated 200 first and 108 (54%) consecutively performed scintigraphies. The Kaplan-Meier curves for DGF duration and qualitative grading of the first and second scintigraphy showed significant differences between the grades (p < 0.01). The Kaplan-Meier curve for the delta grades between these procedures (lower, equal, or higher grade) did not show significant differences (p = 0.18). Multivariate analysis showed a significant association between the qualitative grades, from the first and second scintigraphy, and DGF duration, HR 1.8 (1.4-2.2, p < 0.01) and 2.8 (1.8-4.3, p < 0.01), respectively. Conclusions Qualitative grades of single renal scintigraphies, performed within 7 days after transplantation, can be used to make a reliable image-guided decision on the need for dialysis and to predict LOS. A consecutive renal scintigraphy, however, did not show an additional value in the assessment of DGF. Show less
Atashi, A.; Verburg, I.W.; Karim, H.; Miri, M.; Abu-Hanna, A.; Jonge, E. de; ... ; Eslami, S. 2018
