The ultimate goal of cosmologists is to find a cosmological model able to explain the current observational data. In this sense, the Standard Cosmological model establishes that our universe is... Show moreThe ultimate goal of cosmologists is to find a cosmological model able to explain the current observational data. In this sense, the Standard Cosmological model establishes that our universe is mainly composed of two unknown components: a type of matter that is known to only interact through gravitation, Cold Dark Matter, and a substance responsible for the current accelerated expansion of the universe that can be modelled by a cosmological constant. Still, this model, though successful, fails to answer hot-burning questions in the field. For this reason, theoretical cosmologists focus on developing further modifications of the model to test them against astrophysical data and check whether alternative scenarios can provide a better explanation of the observations.This thesis is dedicated to the Bayesian statistical analyses of extensions of the Standard Cosmological model using several astronomical data sets, and to the forecast of new observables and experiments. The first part focuses on data science and inflation, and it aims to constrain inflationary models using advanced inference techniques. The second part of the thesis is dedicated to the novel concept of cross-correlations of gravitational-wave physics and large scale structure observables. The third part of this thesis is dedicated to the incoming ESA Euclid satellite, and in particular, it focuses on a crucial data science analysis software for the mission: the code “Cosmological Likelihood for Observables in Euclid”, also known as CLOE. Show less
One of the reasons why early modern people chronicled current events in their communities, was to search for patterns. Chroniclers frequently recorded odd weather patterns (scorching summers or... Show moreOne of the reasons why early modern people chronicled current events in their communities, was to search for patterns. Chroniclers frequently recorded odd weather patterns (scorching summers or frigid winters), famines, troop movements, wars, epidemics, prices, prodigies, monstrous births, and other premonitions to search for elements that could help them to comprehend current, and to anticipate on, future events. In this paper I will explore how chroniclers from the Low Countries constructed causal relations between various phenomena and events, and how that changed between 1500 and 1850. I will do so by combining computational and historical methods to analyse 250 early modern Dutch chronicles, focusing especially on authors of the middling sort (e.g., farmers, merchants, and local officials). As a result, we gain insight on how they tried to get grip on current events in their attempt to limit future harm.In this paper I will focus especially on how chroniclers collected data on epidemics, meteorological phenomena, and food- and fuel prices, knowledge which they regarded as useful. Using this evidence, I will argue that throughout the period, this group continued to believe in the idea that disruptive events could have both human and natural but also supernatural origins. Both faith and reason conditioned responses to potential hazards, and the solutions chosen were discussed side-by-side, usually without an apparent sense of conflict. However, natural explanations became more complex over time, which resulted in more detailed explanations on the causes and consequences of (future) hazards. By focussing on the information that chroniclers regarded as useful, and studying the causal relations they constructed, we can not only reconstruct how chroniclers coped with contemporary hazards and crises, but also how they used their chronicle as a compass and anchor to get some grip on events as they sailed into an uncertain future. Show less
