Starting from 2021, more demanding NOx emission restrictions were introduced for ships operating in the North and Baltic Sea waters. Since all methods currently used for ship compliance monitoring are financially and time demanding, it is important to prioritize the inspection of ships that have high chances of being non-compliant. The current state-of-the-art approach for a large-scale ship NO2 estimation is a supervised machine learning-based segmentation of ship plumes on TROPOMI/S5P images. However, challenging data annotation and insufficiently complex ship emission proxy used for the validation limit the applicability of the model for ship compliance monitoring. In this study, we present a methodology towards the automated and scalable selection of potentially non-compliant ships using a combination of machine learning models on TROPOMI satellite data. It is based on a proposed regression model predicting the amount of NO2 that is expected to be produced by a ship with certain properties operating in the given atmospheric conditions. The model does not require manual labeling and is validated with TROPOMI data directly. The differences between the predicted and actual amount of produced NO2 are integrated over observations of the ship in time and are used as a measure of the inspection worthiness of a ship. To add further evidence, we compare the obtained results with the results of the previously developed segmentation-based method. Ships that are also highly deviating in accordance with the segmentation method require further attention. If no other explanations can be found by checking the TROPOMI data, the respective ships are advised to be the candidates for inspection.
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