Using external controls based on real-world or natural history data (RWD/NHD) for drug evaluations in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is appealing given the challenges of enrolling placebo... Show moreUsing external controls based on real-world or natural history data (RWD/NHD) for drug evaluations in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is appealing given the challenges of enrolling placebo-controlled trials, especially for multi-year trials. Comparisons to external controls, however, face risks of bias due to differences in outcomes between trial and RWD/NHD settings. To assess this bias empirically, we conducted a multi-institution study comparing mean 48-week changes in North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA) total score between trial placebo arms and RWD/NHD sources, with and without adjustment for baseline prognostic factors. Analyses used data from three placebo arms (235 48-week intervals, N = 235 patients) and three RWD/NHD sources (348 intervals, N = 202 patients). Differences in mean delta NSAA between placebo arms and RWD/NHD sources were small before adjustment (-1.2 units, 95% CI: [-2.0-0.5]) and were attenuated and no longer statistically significant after adjustment (0.1 units (95% CI: [-0.6, 0.8]). Results were similar whether adjusting using multivariable regression or propensity score matching. This consistency in ANSAA between trial placebo arms and RWD/NHD sources accords with prior findings for the six-minute walk distance, provides a well-validated framework for baseline adjustment of prognostic factors, and supports the suitability of RWD/NHD external controls for drug evaluations in ambulatory DMD. (C) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. Show less
Introduction/Aims: Mutations amenable to skipping of specific exons have been associated with different motor progression in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Less is known about their association... Show moreIntroduction/Aims: Mutations amenable to skipping of specific exons have been associated with different motor progression in Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). Less is known about their association with long-term respiratory function. In this study we investigated the features of respiratory progression in four DMD genotypes relevant in ongoing exon-skipping therapeutic strategies. Methods: This was a retrospective longitudinal study including DMD children followed by the UK NorthStar Network and international AFM Network centers (May 2003 to October 2020). We included boys amenable to skip exons 44, 45, 51, or 53, who were older than 5 years of age and ambulant at first recorded visit. Subjects who were corticosteroid-naive or enrolled in interventional clinical trials were excluded. The progression of respiratory function (absolute forced vital capacity [FVC] and calculated as percent predicted [FVC%]) was compared across the four subgroups (skip44, skip45, skip51, skip53). Results: We included 142 boys in the study. Mean (standard deviation) age at first visit was 8.6 (2.5) years. Median follow-up was 3 (range, 0.3-8.3) years. In skip45 and skip51, FVC% declined linearly from the first recorded visit. From the age of 9 years, FVC% declined linearly in all genotypes. Skip44 had the slowest (2.7%/year) and skip51 the fastest (5.9%/year) annual FVC% decline. The absolute FVC increased progressively in skip44, skip45, and skip51. In skip53, FVC started declining from 14 years of age. Discussion: The progression of respiratory dysfunction follows different patterns for specific genotype categories. This information is valuable for prognosis and for the evaluation of exon-skipping therapies. Show less
