Aims The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70... Show moreAims The aim of this study was to derive and validate the SCORE2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP) risk model to estimate 5- and 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals aged over 70 years in four geographical risk regions.Methods and results Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models for estimating CVD risk (CVD mortality, myocardial infarction, or stroke) were derived in individuals aged over 65 without pre-existing atherosclerotic CVD from the Cohort of Norway (28 503 individuals, 10 089 CVD events). Models included age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Four geographical risk regions were defined based on country-specific CVD mortality rates. Models were recalibrated to each region using region-specific estimated CVD incidence rates and risk factor distributions. For external validation, we analysed data from 6 additional study populations {338 615 individuals, 33 219 CVD validation cohorts, C-indices ranged between 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.61-0.65] and 0.67 (0.64-0.69)}. Regional calibration of expected-vs.-observed risks was satisfactory. For given risk factor profiles, there was substantial variation across the four risk regions in the estimated 10-year CVD event risk.Conclusions The competing risk-adjusted SCORE2-OP model was derived, recalibrated, and externally validated to estimate 5- and 10-year CVD risk in older adults (aged 70 years or older) in four geographical risk regions. These models can be used for communicating the risk of CVD and potential benefit from risk factor treatment and may facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients in CVD risk management in older persons. Show less
Aalst, C.M. van der; Denissen, S.J.A.M.; Vonder, M.; Gratama, J.W.C.; Adriaansen, H.J.; Kuijpers, D.; ... ; Koning, H.J. de 2020
Aim Screening for a high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk followed by preventive treatment can potentially reduce coronary heart disease-related morbidity and mortality. ROBINSCA (Risk Or Benefit... Show moreAim Screening for a high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk followed by preventive treatment can potentially reduce coronary heart disease-related morbidity and mortality. ROBINSCA (Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular disease) is a population-based randomized controlled screening trial that investigates the effectiveness of CVD screening in asymptomatic participants using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model or coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. This study describes the distributions in risk and treatment in the ROBINSCA trial.Methods and results Individuals at expected elevated CVD risk were randomized into screening arm A (n = 14 478; SCORE, 10-year fatal and non-fatal risk); or screening arm B (n= 14 450; CAC scoring). Preventive treatment was largely advised according to current Dutch guidelines. Risk and treatment differences between the screening arms were analysed. A total of 12 185 participants (84.2%) in arm A and 12 950 (89.6%) in arm B were screened. In total, 48.7% were women, and median age was 62 (interquartile range 10) years. SCORE screening identified 45.1% at low risk (SCORE < 10%), 26.5% at intermediate risk (SCORE 10-20%), and 28.4% at high risk (SCORE >= 20%). According to CAC screening, 76.0% were at low risk (Agatston < 100), 15.1% at high risk (Agatston 100-399), and 8.9% at very high risk (Agatston >= 400). CAC scoring significantly reduced the number of individuals indicated for preventive treatment compared to SCORE (relative reduction women: 37.2%; men: 28.8%).Conclusion We showed that compared to risk stratification based on SCORE, CAC scoring classified significantly fewer men and women at increased risk, and less preventive treatment was indicated. Show less
The aim of this thesis was to study cardiovascular risk management in old age, in order to facilitate the development of age specific guidelines. In part one the current status of cardiovascular... Show moreThe aim of this thesis was to study cardiovascular risk management in old age, in order to facilitate the development of age specific guidelines. In part one the current status of cardiovascular prevention in old age is described, including a study into general practitioners__ attitudes and perceived barriers in this respect. The second part explores the incremental value of routine-ECGs for cardiovascular risk management in older persons from the general population, beyond existing information from medical records. The third part focuses on primary prevention, exploring the performance of classic risk factors, and some new biomarkers, in predicting cardiovascular mortality in very old people from the general population. It was concluded that a homocysteine level alone accurately identifies those at high risk of cardiovascular mortality, whereas classic risk factors included in the Framingham risk score do not. Next, in various age strata from age 55 years onwards, the association between blood pressure and mortality was studied. Finally, a systematic review into the diagnostic accuracy of natriuretic peptides for the diagnosis of chronic heart failure in older persons from the general population was performed, followed by a study in a cohort of nonagenarians into the prognostic value of NT-proBNP. A general discussion is provided, including directions for future research. Show less
