We study statistical aspects of the case of the British nurse Ben Geen, convicted of 2 counts of murder and 15 of grievous bodily harm following events at Horton General Hospital (in the town of... Show moreWe study statistical aspects of the case of the British nurse Ben Geen, convicted of 2 counts of murder and 15 of grievous bodily harm following events at Horton General Hospital (in the town of Banbury, Oxfordshire, UK) during December 2013-February 2014. We draw attention to parallels with the cases of nurses Lucia de Berk (the Netherlands) and Daniela Poggiali (Italy), in both of which an initial conviction for multiple murders of patients was overturned after the reopening of the case. We pay most attention to the investigative processes by which data, and not just statistical data, is generated; namely, the identification of past cases in which the nurse under suspicion might have been involved. We argue that the investigation and prosecution of such cases are vulnerable to many cognitive biases and errors of reasoning about uncertainty, exacerbated by the fact that fact-finders have to determine not only whether a particular person was guilty of certain crimes, but whether any crimes were committed by anybody at all. The paper includes some new statistical findings on the Ben Geen case and suggests further avenues for investigation. The experiences recounted here have contributed to the writing of the handbook Healthcare Serial Killer or Coincidence? Statistical Issues in Investigation of Suspected Medical Misconduct, Royal Statistical Society, London, 2022. Show less
Previous research suggests that social relations, in particular the forming of family ties and employment (social factors), self-efficacy (personal factors), and therapeutic interventions ... Show morePrevious research suggests that social relations, in particular the forming of family ties and employment (social factors), self-efficacy (personal factors), and therapeutic interventions (institutional factors) constitute main contributors in post-release success. These studies, however, have largely been based on general delinquents serving relatively short prison terms. This study aims to shed light on the influence of social, personal, and institutional factors on post-release successversusfailure among paroled lifers.We conducted in-depth life-history interviews with 64 individuals who had served a life sentence, who were either re-incarcerated for another crime or parole violation, or were currently out on parole. The role of social factors in desistance among long-term incarcerated offenders was minimal. Rather, self-efficacy appeared to be a key element in post-release success. These findings suggest that research based on short-term incarcerated offenders cannot be directly translated to long-term incarcerated offenders. This group does not experience the same traditional turning points, such as establishing family ties and employment. Accordingly, long-term prisoners may go through a different process post-release that determines their successversusfailure compared to general delinquents who serve shorter sentences. Show less
Previous research suggests that social relations, in particular the forming of family ties and employment (social factors), self-efficacy (personal factors), and therapeutic interventions ... Show morePrevious research suggests that social relations, in particular the forming of family ties and employment (social factors), self-efficacy (personal factors), and therapeutic interventions (institutional factors) constitute main contributors in post-release success. These studies, however, have largely been based on general delinquents serving relatively short prison terms. This study aims to shed light on the influence of social, personal, and institutional factors on post-release success versus failure among paroled lifers. We conducted in-depth life-history interviews with 64 individuals who had served a life sentence, who were either re-incarcerated for another crime or parole violation, or were currently out on parole. The role of social factors in desistance among long-term incarcerated offenders was minimal. Rather, self-efficacy appeared to be a key element in post-release success. These findings suggest that research based on short-term incarcerated offenders cannot be directly translated to long-term incarcerated offenders. This group does not experience the same traditional turning points, such as establishing family ties and employment. Accordingly, long-term prisoners may go through a different process post-release that determines their success versus failure compared to general delinquents who serve shorter sentences. Show less
