Life cycle assessment (LCA) databases and software evolve. We analyzed to which extent software and evolving life cycle inventory databases affect the comparison of technology alternatives, using a... Show moreLife cycle assessment (LCA) databases and software evolve. We analyzed to which extent software and evolving life cycle inventory databases affect the comparison of technology alternatives, using a comparative LCA on permanent magnets as a case study, with two selected software tools: CMLCA and Brightway LCA. We migrated the system models from the CMLCA to Brightway LCA software and alternated between the ecoinvent database versions 2.2 and 3.1 to 3.6 in the system background. When using ecoinvent v3.6 instead of v2.2, the change of the indicator results ranged from −34% to 283%. The evolution of the ecoinvent database impacted the absolute amounts of the characterized results and the relative performance between alternatives. The impact category with the highest variability was ionizing radiation, which even showed a ranking inversion with ecoinvent v3.4. In contrast, the impact of using CMLCA or Brightway was negligible because the same data and modeling assumptions caused percentage differences below 0.4%. During the semi-automated data migration to Brightway, we identified 23 environmental flows in the CMLCA model that were not paired with their corresponding characterization factors in the published study of reference. This error had led to an underestimation of 63% in the photochemical oxidation indicator of one of the alternatives. This underestimation relates to an interoperability issue regarding the nomenclature of environmental flows in software alternatives and is a matter of data implementation rather than an issue intrinsic to the selected software. Finally, we identified improvement opportunities for the transparency and reusability of LCA models. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges. Show less
Martin del Campo, F.; Singh, S.J.; Fishman, T.; Thomas, A.; Drescher, M. 2023
Recent research suggests that over 75% of resources extracted globally now go toward creating, maintaining, or operating material stocks (MS) to provide societal services like housing, transport,... Show moreRecent research suggests that over 75% of resources extracted globally now go toward creating, maintaining, or operating material stocks (MS) to provide societal services like housing, transport, education, and health. However, the integrity of current and future built environments, and the capacity of the system to continue providing services, are threatened by extreme events and sea-level rise (SLR). This is especially significant for the most disaster-prone countries in the world: Small Island Developing States. In the aftermath of disasters, complex rebuilding efforts require substantial material and economic resources, oftentimes incurring massive debt. Understanding the composition and dynamics of MS and environmental threats is essential for current and future sustainable development. Drawing on open-source OpenStreetMap (OSM) data, we conducted a spatially explicit material stock analysis (MSA) for The Bahamas for 2021, where we included buildings and transport MS, and SLR exposure scenarios. Total MS was estimated at 76 million tonnes (Mt) or 191 tonnes per capita (t/cap) of which transport comprises 43%. These MS are likely to increase by 36 Mt in the future. Simulations show that under 1-, 2-, or 3-m SLR scenarios, around 4, 6, and 9 Mt of current MS will be exposed, with transport MS at greatest risk, with over 80% of total exposure in each scenario. Our findings highlight the critical role that key MS play in sustainability and resilience, contributing to the emphasis on effective development planning and climate change adaptation strategies, and to the exploration of the use of OSM data for studying these objectives. Show less
Oorschot, J. van; Sprecher, B.; Rijken, B.; Witteveen, P.; Blok, M.; Schouten, N.; Voet, E. van der 2023
Buildings are an important part of society's environmental impacts, both in the construction and in the use phase. As the energy performance of buildings improve, construction materials become more... Show moreBuildings are an important part of society's environmental impacts, both in the construction and in the use phase. As the energy performance of buildings improve, construction materials become more important as a cause of environmental impact. Less attention has been given to those materials. We explore, as an alternative for conventional buildings, the use of biobased materials and circular building practices. In addition to building design, we analyze the effect of urbanization. We assess the potential to close material cycles together with the material related impact, between 2018 and 2050 in the Netherlands. Our results show a limited potential to close material cycles until 2050, as a result of slow stock turnover and growth of the building stock. At present, end-of-life recycling rates are low, further limiting circularity. Primary material demand can be lowered when shifting toward biobased or circular construction. This shift also reduces material related carbon emissions. Large-scale implementation of biobased construction, however, drastically increases land area required for wood production. Material demand differs strongly spatially and depends on the degree of urbanization. Urbanization results in higher building replacement rates, but constructed dwellings are generally small compared to scenarios with more rural developments. The approach presented in this work can be used to analyze strategies aimed at closing material cycles in the building sector and lowering buildings' embodied environmental impact, at different spatial scales. Show less
Martin del Campo, F.; Singh, S.J.; Fishman, T.; Thomas, A.; Noll, D.; Drescher, M. 2023
Resource-use patterns may entail systemic risks and cascade effects, which consequently inhibit the ability to deliver socioeconomic services. Identifying resource-use patterns exhibiting systemic... Show moreResource-use patterns may entail systemic risks and cascade effects, which consequently inhibit the ability to deliver socioeconomic services. Identifying resource-use patterns exhibiting systemic risks and reshaping their combinations is a potential lever in realizing the transition to a sustainable, resilient, and resource-secure system. Using an island context to assess the quantity and composition of resource throughput enables a more comprehensive analysis of these risks. This article presents the first mass-balance account of socio-metabolic flows for The Bahamas in 2018, to identify socio-metabolic risks and cascading effects. Socio-metabolic risks are systemic risks related to critical resource availability, material circulation integrity, and (in)equities in cost and benefit distributions. We utilize the economy-wide material flow accounting framework to map the material flow patterns across the economy. In 2018, annual direct material input was estimated at 9.4 t/cap/yr, of which 60% were imports. High masses of waste (1.4 t/cap/yr) remained unrecovered due to the lack of recycling. Total domestic extraction (DE) were dominated by non-metallic minerals with more than 80%, while marine biomass makes up barely 1% of total DE. Due to its linear, undiversified metabolism, and heavy imports dependency, the system is susceptible to socio-metabolic risks and cascading effects including low levels of self-sufficiency, high vulnerability to shocks, commodity price fluctuations, threats to sensitive ecosystems, health impacts, and economic losses, among others. A holistic resource management strategy and nature-based solutions that consider the trade-offs and synergies between different resource-use patterns are critical when exploring potential plans for metabolic risk reduction. Show less
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are expected to fulfill a crucial role in the renewable energy systems of the future. Within current regulatory frameworks, assessing the sustainability as... Show moreBattery energy storage systems (BESS) are expected to fulfill a crucial role in the renewable energy systems of the future. Within current regulatory frameworks, assessing the sustainability as well as the social risks for BESS should be considered. In this research we conducted a social life cycle assessment (S-LCA) of two BESS: the vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) and the lithium-ion battery (LIB). The S-LCA was conducted based on the guidelines set by UNEP/SETAC and using the PSILCA v.3 database. It was found that most social risks related to the life cycle of the batteries are associated with the raw material extraction stage, while sectors related to chemicals also entail considerable risks. Workers are the stakeholder group affected most. These results apply to supply chains located in both China and Germany, but risks were lower for similar supply chains in Germany. An LIB with a nickel manganese cobalt oxide cathode is associated with considerably larger risks compared to a LIB with lithium manganese oxide cathode. For a VRFB life cycle with an increased vanadium price, the social risks were higher than those of the VRFB supply chain with a regular vanadium price. Our paper shows that S-LCA through the PSILCA database can provide interesting insights into the potential social risks associated with a certain product's life cycle. Generalizations of the results are not recommended, and one should be careful with assessments for technologies that have not yet matured due to the cost sensitivity of the methodology. Show less
Effective monitoring of national circular economy policies requires consistent, national databases of material flows and environmental impacts. Yet, databases and indicators developed so far are... Show moreEffective monitoring of national circular economy policies requires consistent, national databases of material flows and environmental impacts. Yet, databases and indicators developed so far are scattered and inconsistent. To tackle this problem, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) developed a material flow monitor (MFM) that integrates existing statistics using principles of the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA). The MFM is the physical counterpart of the Dutch supply and use tables (SUT) of the National Accounts and is also referred to as physical SUT (P-SUT). The P-SUT captures national resource extraction, product imports and exports, product flows between economic sectors, as well as emissions and waste streams resulting from economic activities. Our work illustrates how a statistical office can use and enrich its formal statistical data to compose an MFM consistent with the National Accounts and how indicators can be extracted with a case study on the bio-based economy. We contribute a clear step-by-step description of the method and the used datasets. This supports the development of MFMs by other statistical offices and researchers, thereby enabling consistent and comparable circular economy monitoring. Show less
Why are both A-1${\mathbf{A}}<^>{-1}$ and (I-A)-1${(\mathbf{I}-\mathbf{A})}<^>{-1}$ used in life cycle assessment (LCA) matrix computations? This is a question that, in our experience... Show moreWhy are both A-1${\mathbf{A}}<^>{-1}$ and (I-A)-1${(\mathbf{I}-\mathbf{A})}<^>{-1}$ used in life cycle assessment (LCA) matrix computations? This is a question that, in our experience of teaching LCA, students often wonder about and struggle with. A brief survey of the literature suggests that the question can also confuse experienced LCA practitioners. Here, we seek to unify the computational structures of the two LCA approaches to achieve greater clarity and consistency, especially to make them easier to teach. We first show how small but crucial differences in the set-up of the two approaches lead to the use of A$\mathbf{A}$ versus I-A$\mathbf{I}-\mathbf{A}$. Then, we discuss the options to unify the presentations in a coherent way. We do not prescribe one way or the other. A larger point we hope to stress is the importance of unification, which may have both pedagogical and methodological benefits. Show less
Artificial intelligence (AI) applications and digital technologies (DTs) are increasingly present in the daily lives of citizens, in cities and in industries. These developments generate large... Show moreArtificial intelligence (AI) applications and digital technologies (DTs) are increasingly present in the daily lives of citizens, in cities and in industries. These developments generate large amounts of data and enhance analytical capabilities that could benefit the industrial ecology (IE) community and sustainability research in general. With this communication, we would like to address some of the opportunities, challenges, and next steps that could be undertaken by the industrial ecology community in this realm. This article is an adapted summary of the discussion held by experts in industrial ecology, AI, and sustainability during the 2021 Industrial Ecology Day conference session titled “The Future of Artificial Intelligence in the Context of Industrial Ecology.” In brief, building on previous studies and communications, we advise the industrial ecology community to: (1) create internal committees and working groups to monitor and coordinate AI applications within and outside the community; (2) promote and ensure transdisciplinary efforts; (3) determine optimal infrastructure and governance of AI for IE to minimize undesired effects; and (4) act on effective representation and on reduction of digital divides. Show less
Rajaeifar, A.M.; Raugei, M.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Hartwell, A.; Anderson, A.P.; Heidrich, O. 2022
Life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmentally extended input output analysis (EEIOA) are two widely used approaches to assess the environmental impacts of products and services with the aim of... Show moreLife cycle assessment (LCA) and environmentally extended input output analysis (EEIOA) are two widely used approaches to assess the environmental impacts of products and services with the aim of providing decision support. Here, we compare carbon footprint (CF) results for products and services in the ecoinvent 3.4 cut-off and the hybrid version of EXIOBASE. While we find that there is good agreement for certain sectors, more than half of the matched products differ by more than a factor 2. Best fits are observed in the energy, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors, although deviations are substantial for renewable energy. Poorer fits are observed for waste treatment and mining sectors. Both databases have a limited differentiation in the service sector. Differences can, to some degree, be explained by methodological differences, such as system boundaries and approaches used to resolve multi-functionality, and data differences. The common finding that, due to incomplete economic coverage (truncation error), LCA-based CFs should be lower than EEIOA-based CFs, could not be confirmed. The comparison of CFs from LCA and EEIOA databases can provide additional insights into the uncertainties of CF results, which is important knowledge when guiding decision makers. An approach that uses the coefficient of variation to identify strategic database improvement potentials is also presented and highlights several product groups that could deserve additional attention in both databases. Further strategic database improvements are crucial to reduce uncertainties and increase the robustness of decision support that the industrial ecology community can provide for the economic transformations ahead of us. Show less
Rising greenhouse gas emissions do not only accelerate climate change but also make the ocean more acidic. This applies above all to carbon dioxide (CO2). Lower ocean pH levels threaten marine... Show moreRising greenhouse gas emissions do not only accelerate climate change but also make the ocean more acidic. This applies above all to carbon dioxide (CO2). Lower ocean pH levels threaten marine ecosystems and especially strongly calcifying species. Impacts on marine ecosystem quality are currently underrepresented in life cycle assessments (LCAs). Here, we developed characterization factors for the life cycle impact assessment of ocean acidification. Our main contribution was developing new species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), from which we derived effect factors for different impact perspectives: Marginal, linear, and average changes for both the past and four future emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Based on a dataset that covered five taxa (corals, crustaceans, echinoderms, fishes, molluscs) and three climate zones, we showed significantly higher sensitivities for strongly calcifying than slightly calcifying taxa and in polar regions compared to tropical and temperate regions. Experimental duration, leading to acute, subchronic, or chronic toxicological endpoints, did not significantly affect the species sensitivities. With ocean acidification impacts still accelerating, the future-oriented average effects are higher than the marginal or past-oriented average effects. While our characterization factors are ready for use in LCA, we also point to opportunities for improvement in future developments. Show less
Cobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand is expected to increase substantially by 2050. This demand is for an important part because of cobalt use in (electric vehicle)... Show moreCobalt is considered a key metal in the energy transition, and demand is expected to increase substantially by 2050. This demand is for an important part because of cobalt use in (electric vehicle) batteries. This study investigated the environmental impacts of the production of cobalt and how these could change in the future. We modeled possible future developments in the cobalt supply chain using four variables: (v1) ore grade, (v2) primary market shares, (v3) secondary market shares, and (v4) energy transition. These variables are driven by two metal-demand scenarios, which we derived from scenarios from the shared socioeconomic pathways, a "business as usual" (BAU) and a "sustainable development" (SD) scenario. We estimated future environmental impacts of cobalt supply by 2050 under these two scenarios using prospective life cycle assessment. We found that the environmental impacts of cobalt production could likely increase and are strongly dependent on the recycling market share and the overall energy transition. The results showed that under the BAU scenario, climate change impacts per unit of cobalt production could increase by 9% by 2050 compared to 2010, while they decreased by 28% under the SD scenario. This comes at a trade-off to other impacts like human toxicity, which could strongly increase in the SD scenario (112% increase) compared to the BAU scenario (71% increase). Furthermore, we found that the energy transition could offset most of the increase of climate change impacts induced by a near doubling in cobalt demand in 2050 between the two scenarios. Show less
Over the past years, an increasing number of scholarly papers have used the planetary boundaries (PBs) within life cycle assessment (LCA) to determine if the life cycle impacts of a product system... Show moreOver the past years, an increasing number of scholarly papers have used the planetary boundaries (PBs) within life cycle assessment (LCA) to determine if the life cycle impacts of a product system fit within those PBs and thereby establish the absolute sustainability of the product system. This type of LCA is nowadays coined as LCA-based Absolute Environmental Sustainability Assessment (AESA). "Absolute" thereby refers to methods enabling the comparison of environmental impacts of products, companies, nations, and so on, with an assigned share of environmental carrying capacity for various impact categories. A recent review of LCA-based AESA methods and their applications characterized 47 studies "according to their intended application, impact categories, basis of carrying capacity estimates, spatial differentiation of environmental model and principles for assigning carrying capacity." However, the review and the majority of studies reviewed did not, or only to a limited extent, discuss potential temporal issues of assigning carrying capacity to product systems. Several of the carrying capacity estimates have a time dimension while LCA results lack a time dimension. In this article, we show that assigning PBs to product systems is only technically possible when adopting several fundamental though unrealistic assumptions, and conclude that even product LCA-based AESA is relative. This should not withhold scholars from developing approaches applying the PBs in LCA, but it should prevent them from claiming and using the term "absolute." Show less
Life cycle assessment (LCA) models and databases have increased in size, resolution, and complexity, requiring analysts to rely on an ever-increasing number of uncertain model inputs. Such... Show moreLife cycle assessment (LCA) models and databases have increased in size, resolution, and complexity, requiring analysts to rely on an ever-increasing number of uncertain model inputs. Such increased complexity calls for systematic approaches to assessing the uncertainty of the output results of LCA models and the sensitivity of LCA model outputs to the model's uncertain inputs. In this contribution, we provide a theoretical basis and present a practical software implementation that combines uncertainty analysis and moment-independent global sensitivity analysis, which can be readily applied to full-scale LCA models. We implemented our approach in the Activity-Browser open source LCA software and it is made available for use in LCA studies. We demonstrate the approach and software implementation with a case study of crystalline silicon photovoltaics. Show less
The environmental benefits of low-carbon technologies, such as photovoltaic modules, have been under debate because their large-scale deployment will require a drastic increase in metal production.... Show moreThe environmental benefits of low-carbon technologies, such as photovoltaic modules, have been under debate because their large-scale deployment will require a drastic increase in metal production. This is of concern because higher metal demand may induce ore grade decline and can thereby further intensify the environmental footprint of metal supply. To account for this interlinkage known as the "energy-resource nexus", energy and metal supply scenarios need to be assessed in conjunction. We investigate the trends of future impacts of metal supplies and low-carbon technologies, considering both metal and electricity supply scenarios. We develop metal supply scenarios for copper, nickel, zinc, and lead, extending previous work. Our scenarios consider developments such as ore grade decline, energy-efficiency improvements, and secondary production shares. We also include two future electricity supply scenarios from the IMAGE model using a recently published methodology. Both scenarios are incorporated into the background database of ecoinvent to realize an integrated modeling approach, that is, future metal supply chains make use of future electricity and vice versa. We find that impacts of the modeled metal supplies and low-carbon technologies may decrease in the future. Key drivers for impact reductions are the electricity transition and increasing secondary production shares. Considering both metal and electricity scenarios has proven valuable because they drive impact reductions in different categories, namely human toxicity (up to -43%) and climate change (up to -63%), respectively. Thus, compensating for lower ore grades and reducing impacts beyond climate change requires both greener electricity and also sustainable metal supply. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges Show less
Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; Deetman, S.P.; Merciai, S.; Dias Rodrigues, J.F.; Tukker, A. 2021
Around 40% of global raw materials that are extracted every year accumulate as in-use stocks in the form of buildings, infrastructure, transport equipment, and other durable goods. Material inflows... Show moreAround 40% of global raw materials that are extracted every year accumulate as in-use stocks in the form of buildings, infrastructure, transport equipment, and other durable goods. Material inflows to in-use stocks are a key component in the circularity transition, since the reintegration of those materials back into the economy, at the end of the stock's life cycle, means that less extraction of raw materials is required. Thus, understanding the geographical, material, and sectoral distribution of material inflows to in-use stocks globally is crucial for circular economy policies. Here we quantify the geographical, material, and sectoral distributions of material inflows to in-use stocks of 43 countries and 5 rest-of-the-world regions in 2011, using the global, multiregional hybrid units input-output database EXIOBASE v3.3. Among all regions considered, China shows the largest amount of material added to in-use stocks in 2011 (around 46% of global material inflows to in-use stocks), with a per capita value that is comparable to high income regions such as Europe and North America. In these latter regions, more than 90% of in-use stock additions are comprised of non-metallic minerals (e.g., concrete, brick/stone, asphalt, and aggregates) and steel. We discuss the importance of understanding the distribution and composition of materials accumulated in society for a circularity transition. We also argue that future research should integrate the geographical and material resolution of our results into dynamic stock-flow models to determine when these materials will be available for recovery and recycling. This article met the requirements for a Gold-Gold JIE data openness badge described in http://jie.click/badges Show less
Ballatore, A.; Verhagen, T.J.; Li, Z.; Cucurachi, S. 2021
Environmental input–output analyses can be a useful decision support tool at the subnational level, because of its ability to capture economic and environmental impacts at other geographical levels... Show moreEnvironmental input–output analyses can be a useful decision support tool at the subnational level, because of its ability to capture economic and environmental impacts at other geographical levels. Yet, such analyses are hindered by the lack of subnational IO tables. Furthermore, the lack of physical product and waste flows in what is known as a “hybrid” table prevents a range of consumption‐based and circular‐economy‐type analyses. We demonstrate the development of a multiregional hybrid IOT (MRHIOT) along with environmental extensions at the subnational level and exemplify it for the case of Belgium. The development procedure discloses a novel approach of combining national hybrid tables, subnational monetary tables, and physical survey‐based data. Such a combination builds upon a partial‐survey approach that includes a range of techniques for initial estimation and reconciliation within a balancing procedure. For the validation of the approaches, we assessed the magnitude of deviations between the initial and final estimates and analyzed the uncertainties inherent to each initial estimation procedure. Subsequently, we conducted a consumption‐based analysis where we assessed the carbon footprint (CF) at the subnational level and highlighted the CF inherent to the interregional linkages. This study provides methodological and application‐based contributions to the discussion on the relevance of hybrid subnational tables and analyses compared to national ones. The proposed approach could be replicable to some extent for further developing subnational MRHIOT. The study is expected to foster more research toward the development of further subnational MRHIOT as well as its associated wide‐ranging applications. Show less
