n decision making for insect conservation, one depends largely on knowledge of the relationship between changes in environmental factors and abundance of a very limited number of species. The... Show moren decision making for insect conservation, one depends largely on knowledge of the relationship between changes in environmental factors and abundance of a very limited number of species. The species we have knowledge on cannot be regarded as a representative sample of all insects. How accurately do changes in the abundance of these species predict the changes in other species? To answer this question, we studied 373 insect species belonging to the Apidae (bees), Lepidoptera (butterflies), Orthoptera (grasshoppers), Ephemeroptera (mayflies), Trichoptera (caddisflies), Odonata (dragonflies), and Plecoptera (stoneflies), with known population trends and attributes in the Netherlands. The 78 attributes included morphological and demographic trait values, as well as habitat requirements of species. We trained Random Forests (RFs) with random samples and with taxonomic groups to predict the decline of the species based on their attributes. Then we used the trained RFs to predict the decline of the species outside the training groups and checked the accuracy of the predictions. The results showed that accuracy of the predictions of the RFs trained by the random samples increased from 0 to 0.20 (maximum 0.40, on a scale of 0 to 1) with sample size increasing from 10 to 90% of the insects. Moreover, we found that the accuracy of the predictions by the RFs trained with the taxonomic groups were zero in case of butterflies and grasshoppers, and low in other groups (maximum 0.37, in case of bees predicting terrestrial insects). Accuracy depended significantly on the size of the taxonomic group. Large over- or underestimation of number of declining species occurred in all cases. Further, we found that the taxonomic groups had few attributes important for predicting in common. The attribute ‘Active dispersion’ had the highest importance when all insects were used for training the RF. Using ‘indicator groups’ for predicting the decline of insects has a high risk of over- or underestimating the actual number of declining species and should therefore be advised against unless the indicator group is sure to be representative. Show less
Visser, S. de; Scherer, L.; Huijbregts, M.; Barbarossa V. 2023
Water temperature is an abiotic master variable for the survival of aquatic organisms. Global warming alters the thermal regimes of rivers and, thus, poses a threat to freshwater biodiversity. To... Show moreWater temperature is an abiotic master variable for the survival of aquatic organisms. Global warming alters the thermal regimes of rivers and, thus, poses a threat to freshwater biodiversity. To address the impacts of water temperature changes related to global warming on freshwater fish species in life cycle assessment (LCA), we developed spatially explicit characterization factors (CFs) for 207 greenhouse gases under four representative concentration pathways. We calculated fate factors by using the output of a global hydrological model fully coupled with a dynamic water temperature model. We developed six species sensitivity distribution curves for two thermal effects (i.e., lethal and sub-lethal) to derive effect factors, which take the differences in sensitivity between climate regions into account. The regional CFs for CO2 ranged from 2.91 x 10(-22) to 6.53 x 10(-18) PAF.yr/kg for sub-lethal effects and from 1.98 x 10(-22) to 4.58 x 10(-18) PDF.yr/kg for lethal effects, depending on the river watersheds and future climate scenarios. To identify the contribution of regional impacts on freshwater fish to their potential global extinction, the regional CFs were converted into global CFs. The largest CFs always occur in the tropical watersheds. The regional impacts in the Amazon watershed contribute the most to the global freshwater fish species extinction. This study contributes to assessing the potential impacts on freshwater biodiversity from global warming from a new cause-effect pathway in LCA. Show less
Verones, F.; Kuipers, K.; Núnez, M.; Rosa, F.; Scherer, L.; Marques, A.; ... ; Dorber, M. 2022
Human activities put pressure on the natural environmental and the Life Cycle Assessment methodology (LCA) is becoming a more prevalent tool to assess the relevant environmental impacts from... Show moreHuman activities put pressure on the natural environmental and the Life Cycle Assessment methodology (LCA) is becoming a more prevalent tool to assess the relevant environmental impacts from products and processes on terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems. The Global Life Cycle Impact Assessment Method (GLAM) project of the Life Cycle Initiative hosted by the UN Environment Programme aims at making recommendations for new impact assessment models (such as for land use, water consumption and eutrophication) and improving the consistency and comparability across impact categories. An important aspect to ensure the comparability of these categories across geographic regions is to identify and quantify the scale of impacts, i.e., distinguish if an impact to an area results in local species losses or global species extinctions. This distinction is of high relevance because a species lost at a local level may still exist in other regions of the world and could potentially reestablish in that area, whereas global extinctions are irreversible. A consistent approach to scale impacts from local to global scales is currently not implemented within the LCIA framework, but is crucial to appropriately consider potential biodiversity impacts across impact categories. Here we present an updated approach for calculating a scaling factor, called the Global Extinction Probability (GEP), and calculate it for more than 98 000 species in 20 species groups across marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We also provide the GEPs for different spatial scales, such as grid cells, ecoregions or watersheds and country averages. We found that GEP varies over orders of magnitude across the world, emphasizing the relevance of considering the spatial dimension of such extinction probabilities. We recommend quantifying global extinctions based on local species loss by multiplying local species loss within a certain spatial unit with the GEP corresponding to the same spatial unit. GEPs harmonize the quantification of biodiversity impacts across impact categories, improving information to support environmental decision-making. Show less
Musters, C.J.M.; Wiggers, J.M.R.; Snoo, G.R. de 2022
The idea that land use in the surroundings may affect the abundance of arthropods on a location plays an important role in the argument that agriculture is the prime cause of the recently... Show moreThe idea that land use in the surroundings may affect the abundance of arthropods on a location plays an important role in the argument that agriculture is the prime cause of the recently discovered general decline of insects. We studied the abundance of ground-dwelling arthropods in agricultural fields along a gradient of increasing distance from (semi)natural areas and in relation to landscape complexity in both the North America (Illinois, USA) and Europe (The Netherlands) using pitfalls. Our results showed that the total abundance did not change with distance when we controlled for vegetation height and landscape complexity around the sample locations. Vegetation height affected abundance positively in crop land and negatively in grassland. Landscape complexity only affected abundance when it was measured in a 6000 m radius around sample location, not at lower levels of scale. We conclude that an effect of increasing landscape complexity may be expected when that is done on a large enough scale. Show less
Musters, C.J.M.; Evans, T.R.; Wiggers, J.M.R.; Zelfde, M. van 't; Snoo, G.R. de 2021
Governance is an essential element in land-use decision-making and ecosystem management choices and thus for ecosystem service provisioning. Although a community-based approach, i.e. governance... Show moreGovernance is an essential element in land-use decision-making and ecosystem management choices and thus for ecosystem service provisioning. Although a community-based approach, i.e. governance involving actors from all spheres of society (the state, market and civil society), is considered most appropriate for natural resource management, there is a lack of knowledge about its actual effects on environmental outcomes and ecosystem service supply in particular. To obtain insight in the effect of governance on ecosystem service provision in our study region (Berg en Dal, the Netherlands), we constructed ecosystem service maps for the period 1995 to 2012 using land-use maps. Also an inventory of the implemented governance models was created, based on interviews with stakeholders, supplemented with literature research. Our results show that 1) governance in Berg en Dal changed from top-down to more community-based models during the studied period; and 2) that the potential and actual supply of the majority of the investigated regulating, cultural and habitat ecosystem services increased during the studied period, at the expense of agricultural production. The interviewed local stakeholders also indicated that they have the perception that the landscape has improved during the last two decades. Although there is a clear connection between governance and improved ecosystem service supply, more research is needed to further develop causal relationships explaining the indirect effects and non-linear behavior within ecosystem service governance systems. Show less
Oudenhoven, A.P.E. van; Schröter, M.; Drakou, E.G.; Geijzendorffer, I.R.; Jacobs, S.; Bodegom, P.M. van; ... ; Albert, C. 2018
Decision makers are increasingly interested in information from ecosystem services (ES) assessments. Scientists have for long recognised the importance of selecting appropriate indicators. Yet,... Show moreDecision makers are increasingly interested in information from ecosystem services (ES) assessments. Scientists have for long recognised the importance of selecting appropriate indicators. Yet, while the amount and variety of indicators developed by scientists seems to increase continuously, the extent to which the indicators truly inform decision makers is often unknown and questioned. In this viewpoint paper, we reflect and provide guidance on how to develop appropriate ES indicators for informing decision making, building on scientific literature and practical experience collected from researchers involved in seven case studies. We synthesized 16 criteria for ES indicator selection and organized them according to the widely used categories of credibility, salience, legitimacy (CSL). We propose to consider additional criteria related to feasibility (F), as CSL criteria alone often seem to produce indicators which are unachievable in practice. Considering CSLF together requires a combination of scientific knowledge, communication skills, policy and governance insights and on-field experience. In conclusion, we present a checklist to evaluate CSLF of your ES indicators. This checklist helps to detect and mitigate critical shortcomings in an early phase of the development process, and aids the development of effective indicators to inform actual policy decisions. Show less
