The ubiquity of experts in contemporary policy-making has been met with enthusiasm in some quarters, but has also faced severe criticism. Beyond the democratic concerns regarding expert power,... Show moreThe ubiquity of experts in contemporary policy-making has been met with enthusiasm in some quarters, but has also faced severe criticism. Beyond the democratic concerns regarding expert power, critics have raised worries about whether experts actually contribute to increasing the epistemic quality of policies, in line with normative expectations. Yet, so far, limited attention has been paid to the specific conditions under which experts involved in policy-making are likely to live up to such expectations. The article outlines a set of such conditions and empirically examines their fulfillment in the case of a real-world expert body. The article contributes theoretically to normative political theory about the proper role of expertise in policy-making; methodologically by linking normative theorizing and empirical analysis; and empirically through a longitudinal analysis based on large-n data of the extent to which the expert body under scrutiny satisfies a set of quantifiable empirical indicators of the proposed conditions. Show less
Although vote intention polls are often used in the public debate as forecasts of future election outcomes, their predictive value has been subjected to scholarly inquiry. This research note... Show moreAlthough vote intention polls are often used in the public debate as forecasts of future election outcomes, their predictive value has been subjected to scholarly inquiry. This research note contributes to the literature by assessing the predictive value of vote intention polls simultaneously at the macro-level (polls), meso-level (parties), and micro-level (voters). We analyse polls presented by the main polling agencies in the Netherlands (covering seven election cycles between 1998 and 2021), as well as micro-level panel data (covering 27,572 respondents and 46 polls between 2006 and 2010, and 35,574 respondents and 31 polls between 2010 and 2012). We reach three main conclusions. First, vote intention polls in the Netherlands generally do not provide more information than the previous election outcome, until the last few weeks of an election cycle. Second, the predictive accuracy of vote intention polls is lower for challenger parties than for non-challenger parties, particularly midway through the election cycle. Third, the predictive value for individual voters is generally very low, until the last few months before the election. Show less
This article examines the media coverage of vote intention polls in the Netherlands. We assess whether the quality of media reporting on polls depends on the availability of information regarding... Show moreThis article examines the media coverage of vote intention polls in the Netherlands. We assess whether the quality of media reporting on polls depends on the availability of information regarding the quality in pollster’s reports. Our analysis of the quality looks at three different quality measures: (1) mentioning WAPOR items, such as field dates, sampling method, and polling method, (2) mentioning the margin of error, and (3) the correct interpretation of (in)significant changes and differences. The Netherlands provides an interesting case, because there is variation over time and across pollsters in the way they report their polls as well as the increased popularity of a polling aggregator. Our findings indicate that the overall quality of Dutch coverage of polls is low. When a pollster mentions the margin of error in its report, media reports on that poll are more likely to include this information and to correctly interpret the significance of differences between two parties. This effect is particularly visible when the pollster provides uncertainty intervals in its headline figures. Show less
The aim of this article is to understand why the EU opted to conclude the ‘EU–Turkey refugee deal’ in March 2016 in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis, despite the fact that the agreement... Show moreThe aim of this article is to understand why the EU opted to conclude the ‘EU–Turkey refugee deal’ in March 2016 in the context of the Syrian refugee crisis, despite the fact that the agreement deeply contradicts fundamental EU values and norms. The article seeks to explain the outcome—the conclusion of the EU–Turkey refugee deal—by analysing not only the ability of EU institutions to shape decisions, but also their motivations, ideas and preferences in justifying the EU’s actions in responding to the refugee challenge. It is argued that the deal results from ideational and power struggles between supranational (the European Parliament and the European Commission) and intergovernmental institutions (the European Council and the Council of the European Union). It is demonstrated that while the former put forward normative arguments, the latter invoked security as a main concern to avoid internal divisions between Member States. This article also reveals that such ideational and power struggles have consequences for the EU’s identity. Theoretically, the article builds on the new intergovernmentalist claims and on the normative/civilian power literature. Empirically, it explores the usage of normative justifications by EU institutions and points to inter-institutional tensions in framing the EU’s response to the refugee challenge. Show less
Party youth wings are common all over the world. They are expected to play an important role in linking young people to political parties. However, empirical research on the performance of party... Show moreParty youth wings are common all over the world. They are expected to play an important role in linking young people to political parties. However, empirical research on the performance of party youth wings is scarce and political youth participation is seen as problematic. To what extent have party youth wings actually succeeded in attracting members over the last decade? And how can variations in party youth wing membership levels be explained? In order to answer these questions, this article develops and tests organization-based explanations on a unique dataset that contains data for nine party youth wings and the corresponding mother parties in the Netherlands over a period from 2001 to 2016. It is found that youth wings are still a popular form of organizational linkage for parties. While the total party youth wing membership in the Netherlands is on the rise, large variations between party youth wings and their mother parties exist. Youth wing membership levels appear to be affected by the membership levels of the mother party. Other party-related characteristics, such as ideology and electoral success, do not seem to play a role. Show less
This research note introduces the Dutch Parliamentary Behaviour Dataset, a record of parliamentary (voting) behaviour in the Dutch Tweede Kamer (Second Chamber, House of Representatives) since 1945... Show moreThis research note introduces the Dutch Parliamentary Behaviour Dataset, a record of parliamentary (voting) behaviour in the Dutch Tweede Kamer (Second Chamber, House of Representatives) since 1945. The Dutch Parliament was often excluded from past comparative work on legislative (voting) behaviour because behavioural data were not available in an accessible format. By digitizing the parliamentary archives and compiling the data in a structured format, we have created a comparatively rich dataset, that is made publically accessible for other researchers. In this research note, we describe the dataset and data collection process and provide some examples as how the data might be used in the growing quantitative literature on legislative behaviour. Show less
Scholars of democratic peace theories argue that the causal mechanism of the democratic peace is founded on the internalized liberal norms of democratic societies, which are subsequently assumed to... Show moreScholars of democratic peace theories argue that the causal mechanism of the democratic peace is founded on the internalized liberal norms of democratic societies, which are subsequently assumed to be lacking among citizens of societies of different regime types. I argue that the corroborating results of earlier empirical work are overextended and that the mechanism should be empirically tested using a comparative perspective that considers the variance of the independent variable. This article provides experimental evidence that compares the impact of liberal norms on a population residing and socialized within a democracy (the Netherlands) with a population residing and socialized within an autocracy (China) and their respective supports for war with another state. The comparison shows that the level of liberal norms in the democratic experimental group, although significantly higher than that in the autocratic experimental group, does not influence the support to go to war. Moreover, the threat of the conflict turns out to be the key indicator for the support for war among both groups. This finding provides a clearer understanding of the relationship between regime type and the use of force, and has important implications for democratic peace theories. Show less
In most political systems, the community of policy insiders represents a small subset of the total interest group population. Therefore, one key question is which factors explain why some... Show moreIn most political systems, the community of policy insiders represents a small subset of the total interest group population. Therefore, one key question is which factors explain why some mobilized interests become insiders and others remain outsiders. By contrasting a bottom-up registration of interest groups with a top-down census of all groups that enjoy access to policymakers, we present a unique approach to distinguish insiders from outsiders. This approach allows us to systematically analyze which factors – such as resources, constituency, scale of organization and policy portfolio – predict who becomes a policy insider. Our analysis focuses on interest group politics in Belgium, and shows that next to resources, the size of the membership, the scale of organization and a group’s policy portfolio are strong predictors of the likelihood to gain access. Show less
