IntroductionSex differences in dementia risk, and risk factor (RF) associations with dementia, remain uncertain across diverse ethno-regional groups. MethodsA total of 29,850 participants (58%... Show moreIntroductionSex differences in dementia risk, and risk factor (RF) associations with dementia, remain uncertain across diverse ethno-regional groups. MethodsA total of 29,850 participants (58% women) from 21 cohorts across six continents were included in an individual participant data meta-analysis. Sex-specific hazard ratios (HRs), and women-to-men ratio of hazard ratios (RHRs) for associations between RFs and all-cause dementia were derived from mixed-effect Cox models. ResultsIncident dementia occurred in 2089 (66% women) participants over 4.6 years (median). Women had higher dementia risk (HR, 1.12 [1.02, 1.23]) than men, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income economies. Associations between longer education and former alcohol use with dementia risk (RHR, 1.01 [1.00, 1.03] per year, and 0.55 [0.38, 0.79], respectively) were stronger for men than women; otherwise, there were no discernible sex differences in other RFs. DiscussionDementia risk was higher in women than men, with possible variations by country-level income settings, but most RFs appear to work similarly in women and men. Show less
Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals... Show moreAims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries.Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe. Show less
Jong, M. de; Peters, S.A.E.; Ritter, R. de; Kallen, C.J.H. van der; Sep, S.J.S.; Woodward, M.; ... ; Vos, R.C. 2021
Background Insight in sex disparities in the detection of cardiovascular risk factors and diabetes-related complications may improve diabetes care. The aim of this systematic review is to study... Show moreBackground Insight in sex disparities in the detection of cardiovascular risk factors and diabetes-related complications may improve diabetes care. The aim of this systematic review is to study whether sex disparities exist in the assessment of cardiovascular risk factors and screening for diabetes-related complications.MethodsPubMed was systematically searched up to April 2020, followed by manual reference screening and citations checks (snowballing) using Google Scholar. Observational studies were included if they reported on the assessment of cardiovascular risk factors (HbA1c, lipids, blood pressure, smoking status, or BMI) and/or screening for nephropathy, retinopathy, or performance of feet examinations, in men and women with diabetes separately. Studies adjusting their analyses for at least age, or when age was considered as a covariable but left out from the final analyses for various reasons (i.e. backward selection), were included for qualitative analyses. No meta-analyses were planned because substantial heterogeneity between studies was expected. A modified Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Scale for cohort studies was used to assess risk of bias.ResultsOverall, 81 studies were included. The majority of the included studies were from Europe or North America (84%).The number of individuals per study ranged from 200 to 3,135,019 and data were extracted from various data sources in a variety of settings. Screening rates varied considerably across studies. For example, screening rates for retinopathy ranged from 13% to 90%, with half the studies reporting screening rates less than 50%. Mixed findings were found regarding the presence, magnitude, and direction of sex disparities with regard to the assessment of cardiovascular risk factors and screening for diabetes-related complications, with some evidence suggesting that women, compared with men, may be more likely to receive retinopathy screening and less likely to receive foot exams.ConclusionOverall, no consistent pattern favoring men or women was found with regard to the assessment of cardiovascular risk factors and screening for diabetes-related complications, and screening rates can be improved for both sexes. Show less
Ritter , R. de; Jong , M. de; Vos, R.C.; Kallen, C.J.H. van der; Sep, S.J.S.; Woodward, M.; ... ; Peters, S.A.E. 2020
Diabetes is a strong risk factor for vascular disease. There is compelling evidence that the relative risk of vascular disease associated with diabetes is substantially higher in women than men.... Show moreDiabetes is a strong risk factor for vascular disease. There is compelling evidence that the relative risk of vascular disease associated with diabetes is substantially higher in women than men. The mechanisms that explain the sex difference have not been identified. However, this excess risk could be due to certain underlying biological differences between women and men. In addition to other cardiometabolic pathways, sex differences in body anthropometry and patterns of storage of adipose tissue may be of particular importance in explaining the sex differences in the relative risk of diabetes-associated vascular diseases. Besides biological factors, differences in the uptake and provision of health care could also play a role in women's greater excess risk of diabetic vascular complications. In this review, we will discuss the current knowledge regarding sex differences in both biological factors, with a specific focus on sex differences adipose tissue, and in health care provided for the prevention, management, and treatment of diabetes and its vascular complications. While progress has been made towards understanding the underlying mechanisms of women's higher relative risk of diabetic vascular complications, many uncertainties remain. Future research to understanding these mechanisms could contribute to more awareness of the sex-specific risk factors and could eventually lead to more personalized diabetes care. This will ensure that women are not affected by diabetes to a greater extent and will help to diminish the burden in both women and men. Show less
Ritter, R. de; Sep, S.J.S.; Kallen, C.J.H. van der; Schram, M.T.; Koster, A.; Kroon, A.A.; ... ; Stehouwer, C.D.A. 2019
Objective To investigate whether adverse differences in levels of cardiovascular risk factors in women than men, already established when comparing individuals with and without diabetes, are also... Show moreObjective To investigate whether adverse differences in levels of cardiovascular risk factors in women than men, already established when comparing individuals with and without diabetes, are also present before type 2 diabetes onset.Research design and methods In a population-based cohort study of individuals aged 40-75 years (n=3410; 49% women, 29% type 2 diabetes (oversampled by design)), we estimated associations with cardiometabolic and lifestyle risk factors of (1) pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes (reference category: normal glucose metabolism) and (2) among non-diabetic individuals, of continuous levels of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Age-adjusted sex differences were analyzed using linear and logistic regression models with sex interaction terms.Results In pre-diabetes, adverse differences in cardiometabolic risk factors were greater in women than men for systolic blood pressure (difference, 3.02 mm Hg; 95% CI:-0.26 to 6.30), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (difference, -0.10 mmol/L; 95% CI: -0.18 to -0.02), total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio (difference, 0.22; 95% CI: -0.01 to 0.44), triglycerides (ratio: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.22), and inflammation markers Z-score (ratio: 1.18; 95% CI: 0.98 to 1.41). In type 2 diabetes, these sex differences were similar in direction, and of greater magnitude. Additionally, HbA1c among non-diabetic individuals was more strongly associated with several cardiometabolic risk factors in women than men: per one per cent point increase, systolic blood pressure (difference, 3.58 mm Hg; 95% CI: -0.03 to 7.19), diastolic blood pressure (difference, 2.10 mm Hg; 95% CI: -0.02 to 4.23), HDL cholesterol (difference, -0.09 mmol/L; 95% CI: -0.19 to 0.00), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (difference, 0.26 mmol/L; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.47). With regard to lifestyle risk factors, no consistent pattern was observed.Conclusion Our results are consistent with the concept that the more adverse changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in women (than men) arise as a continuous process before the onset of type 2 diabetes. Show less
Angelantonio, E. di; Kaptoge, S.; Pennells, L.; Bacquer, D. de; Cooney, M.T.; Kavousi, M.; ... ; Kim 2019
Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk... Show moreBackground To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
Aims There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention... Show moreAims There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29 39% of individuals aged >= 40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44 51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need. Show less
Read, S.H.; Diepen, M. van; Colhoun, H.M.; Halbesma, N.; Lindsay, R.S.; McKnight, J.A.; ... ; Scottish Diabet Res Network 2018
Background Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed... Show moreBackground Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances. Methods We undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease. Findings Analyses included data for 698 782 people (52765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8.49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2.00 (95% CI 1.83-2.19) for coronary heart disease; 2.27 (1.95-2.65) for ischaemic stroke; 1.56 (1.19-2.05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1.84 (1.59-2.13) for unclassified stroke; and 1.73 (1.51-1.98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40-59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10-12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3.90 mmol/L and 5.59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3.90-5.59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1.07 (0.97-1.18) for lower than 3.90 mmol/L; 1.11 (1.04-1.18) for 5.60-6-09 mmol/L; and 1.17 (1.08-1.26) for 6.10-6.99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors. Interpretation Diabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and nonlinearly associated with risk of vascular disease. Show less
Background Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge... Show moreBackground Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge likelihood of causality. Methods We assessed the -1131T>C (rs662799) promoter polymorphism of the apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) gene in relation to triglyceride concentration, several other risk factors, and risk of coronary heart disease. We compared disease risk for genetically-raised triglyceride concentration (20 842 patients with coronary heart disease, 35 206 controls) with that recorded for equivalent differences in circulating triglyceride concentration in prospective studies (302 430 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease; 12 785 incident cases of coronary heart disease during 2.79 million person-years at risk). We analysed -1131T>C in 1795 people without a history of cardiovascular disease who had information about lipoprotein concentration and diameter obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Findings The minor allele frequency of -1131T>C was 8% (95% CI 7-9). -1131T>C was not significantly associated with several non-lipid risk factors or LDL cholesterol, and it was modestly associated with lower HDL cholesterol (mean difference per C allele 3.5% [95% CI 2.6-4.6]; 0.053 mmol/L [0.039-0.068]), lower apolipoprotein AI (1.3% [0.3-2.3]; 0.023 g/L [0.005-0.041]), and higher apolipoprotein B (3.2% [1.3-5.1]; 0.027 g/L [0.011-0.043]). By contrast, for every C allele inherited, mean triglyceride concentration was 16.0% (95% CI 12.9-18.7), or 0.25 mmol/L (0.20-0.29), higher (p=4.4x10(-24)). The odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.18 (95% CI 1.11-1.26; p=2.6x10(-7)) per C allele, which was concordant with the hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 1.08-1.12) per 16% higher triglyceride concentration recorded in prospective studies. -1131T>C was significantly associated with higher VLDL particle concentration (mean difference per C allele 12.2 nmol/L [95% CI 7.7-16.7]; p=9.3x10(-8)) and smaller HDL particle size (0.14 nm [0.08-0.20]; p=7.0x10(-5)), factors that could mediate the effects of triglyceride. Interpretation These data are consistent with a causal association between triglyceride-mediated pathways and coronary heart disease. Show less
Background Associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration with risk of major diseases can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. We assessed the... Show moreBackground Associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration with risk of major diseases can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. We assessed the associations of CRP concentration with risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes under different circumstances. Methods We meta-analysed individual records of 160 309 people without a history of vascular disease (ie, 1.31 million person-years at risk, 27769 fatal or non-fatal disease outcomes) from 54 long-term prospective studies. Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation in risk factor levels. Results Log(c) CRP concentration was linearly associated with several conventional risk factors and inflammatory markers, and nearly log-linearly with the risk of ischaemic vascular disease and non-vascular mortality. Risk ratios (RRs) for coronary heart disease per 1-SD higher log, CRP concentration (three-fold higher) were 1.63 (95% CI 1.51-1.76) when initially adjusted for age and sex only, and 1.37 (1.27-1.48) when adjusted further for conventional risk factors; 1.44 (1.32-1.57) and 1.27 (1.15-1.40) for ischaemic stroke; 1.71 (1.53-1.91) and 1.55 (1.37-1.76) for vascular mortality; and 1.55 (1.41-1.69) and 1.54 (1.40-1.68) for non-vascular mortality RRs were largely unchanged after exclusion of smokers or initial follow-up. After further adjustment for fibrinogen, the corresponding RRs were 1.23 (1.07-1.42) for coronary heart disease; 1.32 (1.18-1.49) for ischaemic stroke; 1.34 (1.18-1.52) for vascular mortality; and 1.34 (1.20-1.50) for non-vascular mortality. Interpretation CRP concentration has continuous associations with the risk of coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, vascular mortality, and death from several cancers and lung disease that are each of broadly similar size. The relevance of CRP to such a range of disorders is unclear. Associations with ischaemic vascular disease depend considerably on conventional risk factors and other markers of inflammation. Funding British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, BUPA Foundation, and GlaxoSmithKline. Show less
