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Liang, Y.; Kleijn, E.G.M.; Voet, E. van der 2024

Unlocking the resources of end-of-life ICEVs: contributing platinum for green hydrogen production under the IEA-NZE scenario

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolyzers are a promising technology for high-purity, efficient green hydrogen production, with expanding installations. This has increased demand for... Show moreProton exchange membrane (PEM) water electrolyzers are a promising technology for high-purity, efficient green hydrogen production, with expanding installations. This has increased demand for materials like platinum (Pt) used in PEM manufacturing. Conversely, Pt, which currently serves primarily as catalysts for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), would become available as ICEVs are phased out. Here, we simulate the Pt requirements for rapid scale-up PEM electrolyzers and quantitatively compare these requirements with the availability of Pt from scraped autocatalysts under the IEA-NZE scenario. Our results show that demand for Pt in PEM electrolyzers is expected to increase by an order of magnitude by 2050, while ICEVs are expected to cumulatively scrap ∼2500 tons of Pt. The Pt surplus from ICEVs would meet the increasing Pt demand for PEM eletrolyzers from 2030 onwards. These findings offer fresh insights into using the potential of urban mines to meet the energy transition challenges. Show less

Engelenburg, M. van; Deetman, S.P.; Fishman, T.; Behrens, P.A.; Voet, E. van der 2024

TRIPI: a global dataset and codebase of the total resources in physical infrastructure encompassing road, rail, and parking

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Construction materials are associated with significant environmental and resource impacts. The circular use of materials already in use as stocks may provide an opportunity to reduce these impacts.... Show moreConstruction materials are associated with significant environmental and resource impacts. The circular use of materials already in use as stocks may provide an opportunity to reduce these impacts. We provide a dataset describing the potential global urban mine consisting of transportation infrastructure in an open database based on geospatial data from OpenStreetMaps. We reveal the significant opportunities of the embedded materials in this huge stock. With this Total Resources in Physical Infrastructure, or TRIPI, the database we provide easy access to a global dataset covering 175 countries and sub-regions, allowing researchers to select an area of study, and find the location as well as the material composition of the physical infrastructure. Material stocks are reported on a national level and commonly used regional aggregations. Material stocks are reported per kg, kg per capita, and kg per area; and for the physical type of infrastructure that is available in kilometres and area (km2). This dataset can be used in various research applications such as Material Flow Analysis, Material stock inventories, Country-level comparisons of infrastructure density, and others, and inform policy on harnessing the opportunities of the urban mine. Show less

Gervais, E.; Kleijn, E.G.M.; Nold, S.; Voet, E. van der 2023

Risk-based due diligence in supply chains: the case of silver for photovoltaics

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Supply concentration and environmental, social, governance (ESG) issues constitute important supply risks. With strategic autonomy and responsible sourcing high on the political agenda these risks... Show moreSupply concentration and environmental, social, governance (ESG) issues constitute important supply risks. With strategic autonomy and responsible sourcing high on the political agenda these risks are especially relevant for the EU. This paper proposes an approach to conduct risk-based due diligence. Using a trade-linked material flow analysis, ESG and dependency hotspots along supply chains can be identified. Silver supply chains for photovoltaics (PV) are taken as case-study. The model traces silver from mining to PV module manufacturing, from 1995 to 2021. The supply of silver powder, paste, PV cells, and modules is found to be highly concentrated. These supply chains are linked to substantial ESG risks, mostly nested in fabrication and manufacturing, some of which have worsened over time. Over 87% of the silver used in PV transits through at least one country with a very high risk factor. Reshoring the PV industry to the EU can partially de-risk supply. Show less

Oorschot, J. van; Sprecher, B.; Rijken, B.; Witteveen, P.; Blok, M.; Schouten, N.; Voet, E. van der 2023

Toward a low‐carbon and circular building sector: building strategies and urbanization pathways for the Netherlands

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Buildings are an important part of society's environmental impacts, both in the construction and in the use phase. As the energy performance of buildings improve, construction materials become more... Show moreBuildings are an important part of society's environmental impacts, both in the construction and in the use phase. As the energy performance of buildings improve, construction materials become more important as a cause of environmental impact. Less attention has been given to those materials. We explore, as an alternative for conventional buildings, the use of biobased materials and circular building practices. In addition to building design, we analyze the effect of urbanization. We assess the potential to close material cycles together with the material related impact, between 2018 and 2050 in the Netherlands. Our results show a limited potential to close material cycles until 2050, as a result of slow stock turnover and growth of the building stock. At present, end-of-life recycling rates are low, further limiting circularity. Primary material demand can be lowered when shifting toward biobased or circular construction. This shift also reduces material related carbon emissions. Large-scale implementation of biobased construction, however, drastically increases land area required for wood production. Material demand differs strongly spatially and depends on the degree of urbanization. Urbanization results in higher building replacement rates, but constructed dwellings are generally small compared to scenarios with more rural developments. The approach presented in this work can be used to analyze strategies aimed at closing material cycles in the building sector and lowering buildings' embodied environmental impact, at different spatial scales. Show less

Liang, Y.; Kleijn, E.G.M.; Voet, E. van der 2023

Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Verhagen, T.J.; Cetinay, H.; Voet, E. van der; Sprecher, B. 2022

Transitioning to low-carbon residential heating: the impacts of material-related emissions

Article / Letter to editor

open access

To achieve climate neutrality, future urban heating systems will need to use a variety of low-carbon heating technologies. The transition toward low-carbon heating technologies necessitates a... Show moreTo achieve climate neutrality, future urban heating systems will need to use a variety of low-carbon heating technologies. The transition toward low-carbon heating technologies necessitates a complete restructuring of the heating system, with significant associated material requirements. However, little research has been done into the quantity and environmental impact of the required materials for this system change. We analyzed the material demand and the environmental impact of the transition toward low-carbon heating in the Netherlands across three scenarios based on the local availability and capacity for sources of low-carbon heat. A wide range of materials are included, covering aggregates, construction materials, metals, plastics, and critical materials. We find that while the Dutch policy goal of reducing GHG emissions by 90% before 2050 can be achieved if only direct emissions from the heating system are considered, this is no longer the case when the cradle-to-gate emissions from the additional materials, especially insulation materials, are taken into account. The implementation of these technologies will require 59–63 megatons of materials in the period of 2021–2050, leading to a maximum reduction of 62%. Show less

Oorschot, J. van; Sprecher, B.; Roelofs, B.; Horst, J. van der; Voet, E. van der 2022

Towards a low-carbon and circular economy: scenarios for metal stocks and flows in the Dutch electricity system

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Wagner, M.A.; Huisman, J.; Lovik, A.N.; Habib, H.; Mahlitz, P.; Voet, E. van der 2021

Methodology to prospect electronics compositions and flows, illustrated by material trends in printed circuit boards

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Raw Materials are crucial in the development, production, and improvement of modern-day technology. Reliable access to critical, scarce, and valuable materials used in electronics is becoming a... Show moreRaw Materials are crucial in the development, production, and improvement of modern-day technology. Reliable access to critical, scarce, and valuable materials used in electronics is becoming a worldwide concern. Therefore, the quantification of material recovery from the urban mine is currently pursued worldwide. Commonly, data on (Waste) Electrical and Electronic Equipment is scattered, not harmo-nized, and uses different types of classifications and terminology. This provides a big challenge of a structured mapping of secondary raw materials in the urban mine. To address these issues, a state-of -the-art methodology has been developed and is presented by analyzing and tracking printed circuit boards in different key Electrical and Electronic Equipment over time. A total of 4051 composition data records where analyzed to extract the concentration of 19 elements in printed circuit boards between 1990 until 2020. The methodology harmonizes urban mine data, provides structured information that can be used to analyze and monitor the impact of product trends on their components and concentration of the elements in electronics. The resulting database and harmonization protocols are made freely available at the urban mine platform. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Show less

Deetman, S.P.; Boer, H.S. de; Engelenburg, M. van; Voet, E. van der; Vuuren, D.P. van 2021

Projected material requirements for the global electricity infrastructure: generation, transmission and storage

Article / Letter to editor

open access

We analyse how the global material stocks and flows related to the electricity sector may develop towards 2050. We focus on three electricity sub-systems, being generation, transmission and storage... Show moreWe analyse how the global material stocks and flows related to the electricity sector may develop towards 2050. We focus on three electricity sub-systems, being generation, transmission and storage and present a model covering both bulk and critical materials such as steel, aluminium and neodymium. Results are based on the second Shared Socio-Economic Pathway scenario, with additional climate policy assumptions based on the IMAGE integrated assessment framework, in combination with dynamic stock modelling and an elaborate review of material intensities.Results show a rapid growth in the demand for most materials in the electricity sector, as a consequence of increased electricity demand and a shift towards renewable electricity technologies, which have higher material intensities and drive the expansion of transmission infrastructure and electricity storage capacity. Under climate policy assumptions, the annual demand for most materials is expected to grow further towards 2050. For neodymium, the annual demand grows by a factor 4.4. Global demand for steel and aluminium in the electricity sector grows by a factor 2 in the baseline or 2.6 in the 2-degree climate policy scenario.We show that the combination of rapid growth of capital stocks and long lifetimes of technologies leads to a mismatch between annual demand and the availability of secondary materials within the electricity sector. This may limit the sector to accomplish circular material flows, especially under climate policy assumptions. We also highlight the potential for electric vehicles to curb some of the material demand related to electricity storage through adoption of vehicle-to-grid services. Show less

Espinoza, L.T.; Schrijvers, D.; Chen, W.; Dewulf, J.; Eggert, R.; Goddin, J.; ... ; Hool, A. 2020

Greater circularity leads to lower criticality, and other links between criticality and the circular economy

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Marinova, S.A.; Deetman, S.P.; Voet, E. van der; Daioglou, V. 2020

Global construction materials database and stock analysis of residential buildings between 1970-2050

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Huge material stocks are embedded in the residential built environment. These materials have the potential to be a source of secondary materials, an important consideration for the transition... Show moreHuge material stocks are embedded in the residential built environment. These materials have the potential to be a source of secondary materials, an important consideration for the transition towards a circular economy. Consistent information about such stocks, especially at the global level, is missing. This article attempts to fill part of that gap by compiling a material intensities database for different types of buildings and applying that data in the context of a scenario analysis, linked to the SSP scenarios as implemented in the global climate model IMAGE. The database is created on a global scale, dividing the world into 26 regions in compliance with IMAGE. The potential use of the database was tested and served as input for modelling the housing and material stock of residential buildings for the period 1970-2050, according to specifications made for the SSP2 scenario. Six construction materials in four different dwelling types in urban and rural areas are included. The material flows related to those stocks are estimated and analysed in a companion paper (also exploring commercial buildings) by Deetman et al. (2019). The results suggest a significant increase in the material stock in housing towards 2050, particularly in urban areas. The results reflect specific patterns in the material contents across the different building types. China presently dominates developments in the global level building stock. The SSP2 projections show a stock saturation towards 2050 for China. In other regions, such as India and South East Asia, stock growth is presently just taking off and can be expected to become dominant for global developments after 2050. The database is created to be used as input for resource and climate policymaking as well as assessment of environmental impact related to residential buildings and assessment of possibilities for urban mining. In the future, we hope to extend it as new data on materials in the built environment become available. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Show less

Deetman, S.P.; Marinova, S.A.; Voet, E. van der; Vuuren, D. van; Edelenbosch, O.; Heijungs, R. 2019

Modelling global material stocks and flows for residential and service sector buildings towards 2050

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Residential buildings and service sector buildings have an important contribution to climate change, directly via energy use in these buildings and indirectly through construction activities and... Show moreResidential buildings and service sector buildings have an important contribution to climate change, directly via energy use in these buildings and indirectly through construction activities and the production and disposal of buildings materials. In this paper, we introduce a model that looks at total global building stock for 26 regions between 1970 and 2050 and calculates the floor space and building materials both in new buildings and in demolished buildings. For residential buildings, we build upon the work of Marinova et al. (2019, this issue), who used a building material database to come up with scenarios for materials in the residential building stock. This paper adds two things. First, we introduce a new regression-based model for service building floor space, recognizing 4 different types of service-related buildings. Secondly, we use a dynamic stock model, based on lifetime distributions found in literature, to calculate the construction (inflow) and demolition (outflow) of building floor space for both residential and service-related purposes. We combine this with data from the building material database to come up with scenarios for the annual demand for construction materials worldwide as well as an estimation of the availability of waste materials after building demolition towards 2050. The model can thus be used to assess the potential for closing the material cycles in the construction sector, while distinguishing urban and rural areas explicitly. The results show that demand for construction materials will continue to increase in most regions, even in developed countries. Global demand for steel and cement for the building sector is estimated to be 769 Mt/yr and 11.9 Gt/yr respectively, by the end of the modelling period. This represents a respective growth of 31% and 14% compared to today. Drivers behind this are an expected growth of global residential building stock of about 50%, and a growth of about 150% in the building stock for services. Our model projects that by 2050, only 55% of construction-related demand for copper, wood and steel could potentially be covered by recycled building materials. For other materials the availability of scrap may be higher, reaching up to 71% of new demand in the case of aluminium. This means that in most regions urban mining cannot cover the growing demand for construction materials. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less

Bleischwitz, R.; Spataru, C.; VanDeveer, S.D.; Obersteiner, M.; Voet, E. van der; Johnson, C.; ... ; Vuuren, D.P. van 2018

Resource nexus perspectives towards the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Schipper, B.W.; Lin, H.C.; Meloni, M.A.; Wansleeben, K.; Heijungs, R.; Voet, E. van der 2018

Estimating global copper demand until 2100 with regression and stock dynamics

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Future global copper demand is expected to keep rising due to copper's indispensable role in modem technologies. Unfortunately, increasing copper extraction and decreasing ore grades intensify... Show moreFuture global copper demand is expected to keep rising due to copper's indispensable role in modem technologies. Unfortunately, increasing copper extraction and decreasing ore grades intensify energy use and generate higher environmental impact. A potential solution would be reaching a circular economy of copper, in which secondary production provides a large part of the demand. A necessary first step in this direction is to understand future copper demand. In this study, we estimated the copper demand until 2100 under different scenarios with regression and stock dynamics methods. For the stock dynamics method, a strong growth of copper demand is found in the scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, in which a much higher copper intensity for the electricity system and the transport sector is seen. The regression predicts a wider range of copper demand depending on the scenario. The regression method requires less data but lacks the ability to incorporate the expected decoupling of material use and GDP when the stock saturates, limiting its applicability for long-term estimations. Under all considered scenarios, the projected increase in demand for copper results in the exhaustion of the identified copper resources, unless high end-of-life recovery rates are achieved. These results highlight the urgency for a transition towards the circular economy of copper. Show less

Kuipers, K.J.J.; Oers, L.F.C.M. van; Verboon, M.; Voet, E. van der 2018

Assessing environmental implications associated with global copper demand and supply scenarios from 2010 to 2050

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Voet, E. van der; Oers, L.F.C.M. van; Verboon, M.; Kuipers, K. 2018

Environmental Implications of Demand Scenarios for Metals, Methodology and Application to Seven Major Metals

Article / Letter to editor

open access

In this paper, we develop a method to assess the environmental impacts of metal scenarios. The method is life cycle based, but enables forward looking and upscaling. The method aims at translating... Show moreIn this paper, we develop a method to assess the environmental impacts of metal scenarios. The method is life cycle based, but enables forward looking and upscaling. The method aims at translating metal demand scenarios into technology‐specific supply scenarios, necessary to make the translation into environmental impacts. To illustrate the different steps of the methodology, we apply it to the case of seven major metals. Demand scenarios for seven major metals are taken from literature. We translate those into technology‐specific supply scenarios, and future time series of environmental impacts are specified including recycling rates, energy system transformation, efficiency improvement, and ore grade decline. We show that the method is applicable and may lead to relevant and, despite many uncertainties, fairly robust results. The projections show that the environmental impacts related to metal production are expected to increase steeply. Iron is responsible for the majority of impacts and emissions are relatively unaffected by changes in the production and energy system. For the other metals, the energy transition may have substantial benefits. By far, the most effective option for all metals appears to be to increase the share of secondary production. This would reduce emissions, but is expected to become effective only in the second half of the twenty‐first century. The circular economy agenda for metals is therefore a long‐term agenda, similar to climate change: Action must be taken soon while benefits will become apparent only at the long term. Show less

Huppes, G.; Deetman, S.P.; Huele, R.; Kleijn, E.G.M.; Koning, A. de; Voet, E. van der 2016

Strategic design of long-term climate policy instrumentations, with exemplary EU focus

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Font Vivanco, D.; Kemp, R.; Voet, E. van der 2016

How to deal with the rebound effect? A policy-oriented approach

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Policy makers and environmental agencies have echoed concerns brought forward by academics about the need to address the rebound effect for achieving absolute energy and environmental decoupling. However, such concerns have generally not been translated into tangible policy action. The reasons behind this inaction are not fully understood, and much remains unknown about the status of the rebound effect issue on the policy agenda and policy pathways available. Such knowledge gaps may hamper the development of effective policies to address this issue. In this paper, we examine the extent to and ways in which the rebound effect is considered in policy documents and analyse thirteen specific policy pathways for rebound mitigation. The effectiveness of the pathways is scrutinised and conclusions are offered to mitigate rebound effects. The main policy conclusions of the paper are that an appropriate policy design and policy mix are key to avoiding undesired outcomes, such as the creation of additional rebound effects and environmental trade-offs. From the discussion, economy-wide cap-and-trade systems as well as energy and carbon taxes, when designed appropriately, emerge as the most effective policies in setting a ceiling for emissions and addressing energy use across the economy.

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Font Vivanco, D.; McDowall, W.; Freire-González, J.; Kemp, R.; Voet, E. van der 2016

The foundations of the environmental rebound effect and its contribution towards a general framework

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Font Vivanco, D.; Kemp, R.; Voet, E. van der 2015

The relativity of eco-innovation: environmental rebound effects from past transport innovations in Europe

Article / Letter to editor

open access

The term eco-innovation has been coined to label those innovations expected to reduce the life cycle environmental burdens resulting from their use. Claims of environmental superiority are usually... Show moreThe term eco-innovation has been coined to label those innovations expected to reduce the life cycle environmental burdens resulting from their use. Claims of environmental superiority are usually supported by technology-oriented analyses, such as product-level life cycle assessment. However, the environmental superiority of an innovation depends not only on its technical characteristics but also on technology-demand interactions. In this article, such interactions are incorporated through the concept of the environmental rebound effect. Using the Dynamic IPAT-Life cycle assessment with Environmental Rebound effect or DILER model, environmental superiority claims of seven alleged transport eco-innovations were evaluated by comparing alternative macro-level scenarios (with and without innovation) for Europe. The results support the claims of environmental superiority of only three out of seven studied innovations. That is, a majority of innovations actually induced increases in various environmental pressures. Such increases can be attributed mostly to the influence of generally noteworthy environmental rebound effects. The magnitude of the rebound effect is found to be highly correlated with two variables: the total change in effective income resulting from the use of the innovation and the difference between the environmental pressures per monetary unit of the studied innovations and that of the rest of consumption. The article contributes to the literature by (a) applying a comprehensive approach to the rebound effect and its relationship with the eco-innovation concept, (b) by calculating original rebound estimates of specific transport innovations and assessing these in absolute terms, as well as by (c) obtaining novel insights into the drivers behind the rebound effect. The counterintuitive results of this study also invite to re-assess the use of technology-oriented tools for guiding environmental policy. Other policy implications of this study relate to the relevance of transport cost differences, the targeted promotion of actual eco-innovations and its combination with broader policies as well as the achievement of higher quality mobility. Show less

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