Deployment of clean energy technologies will require a considerable amount of materials. The surge in demand for metals related to emerging energy technologies may hinder the energy transition. In... Show moreDeployment of clean energy technologies will require a considerable amount of materials. The surge in demand for metals related to emerging energy technologies may hinder the energy transition. In this study we provide a comprehensive overview and analysis of existing work in this field, a solid quantitative baseline for material requirements of different energy technologies and quantitative information that can be used to generate learning curves for the material requirements of different energy technologies. We conducted a quantitative review of the material requirements of low-carbon energy technologies in 132 scientific publications, and provided a comparative analysis of detailed data including material intensity and lifetime data. Besides providing a large amount of structured quantitative data, the results of our work indicate that: (1) research on the demand for low carbon technology related metals has received much attention since the 2010s; (2) around 80% of the publications focus on the global level while national level studies are underrepresented; (3) science-based future scenarios are the main means of estimating total future material requirements; (4) most studies foresee material constraints of large-scale implementation of low-carbon technologies and the secure and responsible supply of these materials is still the subject of discussion; (5) changes in metal intensity caused by technological development and material requirements for non-critical components are important though often overlooked. Show less
Dong, D.; Tukker, A.; Steubing, B.R.P.; Oers, L.F.C.M. van; Rechberger, H.; Aguilar Hernandez, G.A.; ... ; Voet, E. van der 2022
To conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the "Zero waste" concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper.... Show moreTo conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the "Zero waste" concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper. Although several studies have assessed the copper demand and recycling, there is a lack of understanding on how different waste management options would potentially reduce primary copper demand and associated environmental impacts in China in the context of energy transition. This study addresses this gap in view of a transition to low-carbon energy system and the optimization of copper waste management combining MFA and LCA approaches. Six types of waste streams (C&DW, ELV, WEEE, IEW, MSW, ICW) are investigated in relation to various "Zero waste" strategies including reduction, reuse (repair, remanufacturing or refurbishment), recycling and transition from informal to formal waste management. Under present Chinese policies, reuse and recycling of copper containing products will lead to a somewhat lower dependency on primary copper in 2100 (11187Gg), as well as lower total GHG emissions (64869 Gg CO2-eq.) and cumulative energy demand (1.18x10 boolean AND 12 MJ). Maximizing such "Zero waste" options may lead to a further reduction, resulting in 65% potential reduction of primary copper demand, around 55% potential reduction of total GHG emissions and total cumulative energy demand in 2100. Several policy actions are proposed to provide insights into future waste management in China as well as some of the challenges involved. Show less
Dong, D.; Oers, L.F.C.M. van; Tukker, A.; Voet, E. van der 2020
Copper demand in China is expected to grow considerably over the coming decades, driving energy use and environmental impacts related to copper production. To explore the environmental impacts of... Show moreCopper demand in China is expected to grow considerably over the coming decades, driving energy use and environmental impacts related to copper production. To explore the environmental impacts of copper production in China, we used a variant of Life Cycle Sustainability Analysis that combined the Life Cycle Assessment methodology with the Chinese copper demand projections from 2010 to 2050. The results indicate that the environmental impacts of pyrometallurgical copper production are expected to increase more than twofold during this period and remain the largest contributor to the environmental footprint. Secondary copper production emits the least pollutions. Increasing the share of secondary copper production is the most environmental friendly option for copper production. To this end, China may focus on improving the classification of waste copper products and recycling infrastructure for end-of-life management. Hard coal use and production are crucial contributors to climate change in the context of copper production. Cleaning up copper production processes and improving energy efficiency would also help reduce environmental impacts. Energy transition can significantly reduce the environmental impacts of copper production, but it also can increase copper requirement.It does not visibly contribute to reduce human toxicity as well. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
Dong, D.; Espinoza, L.A.T.; Loibl, A.; Pfaff, M.; Tukker, A.; Voet, E. van der 2020
Copper is widely used in buildings, transportation and home appliances, resulting in steadily increasing demand in China. From 2013 on, China has implemented the "Green Fence" policy to restrict... Show moreCopper is widely used in buildings, transportation and home appliances, resulting in steadily increasing demand in China. From 2013 on, China has implemented the "Green Fence" policy to restrict copper scrap imports, which have affected and will continue to affect its future copper supply. To explore how China's copper demand can be met in the future, including the effects of the "Green Fence" policy change, in this paper a stock-driven approach is combined with a scenario analysis. We compare two scenarios (Continuity Policy, Circular Economy) and assess the influence of the "Green Fence" policy on each. We conclude that effective measures to prolong product lifetime could lead to a significant reduction in copper demand. Given the limited scope for domestic mining, China will still have to depend largely on imports of primary material in the form of concentrates and refined copper or, otherwise, put major emphasis on its recycling industry and continue to import high-quality copper scrap. In combination with the establishment of a state-of-the-art, efficient and environmentally friendly recycling industry, secondary copper could satisfy the bulk of Chinese copper demand and this could be an opportunity for China to transition to a more circular economy with regard to copper. Show less
In this paper, we develop a dynamic stock model and scenario analysis involving a bottom‐up approach to analyze copper demand in China from 2005 to 2050 based on government and related sectoral... Show moreIn this paper, we develop a dynamic stock model and scenario analysis involving a bottom‐up approach to analyze copper demand in China from 2005 to 2050 based on government and related sectoral policies. The results show that in the short‐term, China's copper industry cannot achieve a completely circular economy without additional measures. Aggregate and per capita copper demand are both set to increase substantially, especially in infrastructure, transportation, and buildings. Between 2016 and 2050, total copper demand will increase almost threefold. Copper use in buildings will stabilize before 2050, but the copper stock in infrastructure and transportation will not yet have reached saturation in 2050. The continuous growth of copper stock implies that secondary copper will be able to cover just over 50% of demand in 2050, at best, even with an assumed recycling rate of 90%. Finally, future copper demand depends largely on the lifetime of applications. There is therefore an urgent need to prolong the service life of end‐use products to reduce the amount of materials used, especially in large‐scale applications in buildings and infrastructure. Show less
Tukker, A.; Udo De Haes, H.A.; Groot, W.T. de; Barendse, G.; Huppes, G.; Voet, E. van der; ... ; Bodegom, P.M. van 2018
Forty years of Leiden environmental sciences relates the story of CML, today one of the Faculty of Science’s eight institutes but with its roots in a more or less in dependent group of ex-activists... Show moreForty years of Leiden environmental sciences relates the story of CML, today one of the Faculty of Science’s eight institutes but with its roots in a more or less in dependent group of ex-activists within the university. Back in the day, many of those at the top of the university would probably have had trouble accepting that ‘those upstarts’ would still be around forty years on – not locked away in some cubbyhole with their stencil duplicator, but as a professor, assistant professor or even a dean. Today they are professors emeritus or have retired: Helias Udo de Haes, Wouter de Groot, Gerard Barendse, Gjalt Huppes, Gerard Persoon, Hans de Iongh and Jan Boersema – which doesn’t stop most of them just carrying on working. And a new generation of environmental scientists is now leading CML’s research and teaching: Geert de Snoo, Arnold Tukker, Martina Vijver, Peter van Bodegom, Jeroen Guinée, Ester van der Voet and René Kleijn. Show less
Deetman, S.P.; Pauliuk, S.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Voet, E. van der; Tukker, A. 2018
This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt,... Show moreThis study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework. Show less
Deetman, S.; Oers, L. van; Voet, E. van der; Tukker, A. 2018
