The relation between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and other relevant prebiopsy information is often combined in a risk calculator (RC). If the setting for RC use differs from that in which it... Show moreThe relation between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and other relevant prebiopsy information is often combined in a risk calculator (RC). If the setting for RC use differs from that in which it was developed, there is a risk of making clinical decisions based on incorrect estimates of the absolute risk. The ERSPC-MRI RC predicts clinically significant prostate cancer (csPC; Gleason >= 3 + 4) on targeted and systematic biopsy using information on PSA, digital rectal examination, prostate volume, age, previous negative biopsy, and Prostate Imaging-Recording and Data System score. This calculator was developed on a clinical cohort of 961 men (2012-2017) with a csPC prevalence of 36%. Discrimination was good (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.84). With the increasing use of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging, we foresee that this RC will also be used for men with a lower a priori likelihood of PC. We investigated the effect of such a scenario on individual risk predictions. A small update of the intercept for the calculator can restore the accuracy to support decision-making with locally valid risk estimates.Patient summary: Decisions on who to refer for a prostate biopsy with its risk of sepsis and overdiagnosis require more than a prostate-specific antigen test. A prediction tool may take other relevant prebiopsy information into account, but may need to be updated to contemporary center-specific settings to provide accurate estimates of the risk of having prostate cancer. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of European Association of Urology. Show less
Bruinsma, S.M.; Nieboer, D.; Roobol, M.J.; Bangma, C.H.; Verbeek, J.F.M.; Gnanapragasam, V.; ... ; Movember Fdn Global Action Plan 2021
Purpose: We sought to identify and validate known predictors of disease reclassification at 1 or 4 years to support risk-based selection of patients suitable for active surveillance.Materials and... Show morePurpose: We sought to identify and validate known predictors of disease reclassification at 1 or 4 years to support risk-based selection of patients suitable for active surveillance.Materials and Methods: An individual participant data meta-analysis using data from 25 established cohorts within the Movember Foundations GAP3 Consortium. In total 5,530 men were included. Disease reclassification was defined as any increase in Gleason grade group at biopsy at 1 and 4 years. Associations were estimated using random effect logistic regression models. The discriminative ability of combinations of predictors was assessed in an internaleexternal validation procedure using the AUC curve.Results: Among the 5,570 men evaluated at 1 year, we found 815 reclassifications to higher Gleason grade group at biopsy (pooled reclassification rate 13%, range 0% to 31%). Important predictors were age, prostate specific antigen, prostate volume, T-stage and number of biopsy cores with prostate cancer. Among the 1,515 men evaluated at 4 years, we found 205 reclassifications (pooled reclassification rates 14%, range 3% to 40%), with similar predictors. The average areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve at internaleexternal validation were 0.68 and 0.61 for 1-year and 4-year reclassification, respectively.Conclusions: Disease reclassification occurs typically in 13% to 14% of biopsies at 1 and 4 years after the start of active surveillance with substantial between-study heterogeneity. Current guidelines might be extended by considering prostate volume to improve individualized selection for active surveillance. Additional predictors are needed to improve patient selection for active surveillance. Show less
