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Kurchaba, S.; Vliet, J. van; Verbeek, F.J.; Veenman, C.J. 2023

Anomalous NO2 emitting ship detection with TROPOMI satellite data and machine learning

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Starting from 2021, more demanding NOx emission restrictions were introduced for ships operating in the North and Baltic Sea waters. Since all methods currently used for ship compliance monitoring are financially and time demanding, it is important to prioritize the inspection of ships that have high chances of being non-compliant. The current state-of-the-art approach for a large-scale ship NO2 estimation is a supervised machine learning-based segmentation of ship plumes on TROPOMI/S5P images. However, challenging data annotation and insufficiently complex ship emission proxy used for the validation limit the applicability of the model for ship compliance monitoring. In this study, we present a methodology towards the automated and scalable selection of potentially non-compliant ships using a combination of machine learning models on TROPOMI satellite data. It is based on a proposed regression model predicting the amount of NO2 that is expected to be produced by a ship with certain properties operating in the given atmospheric conditions. The model does not require manual labeling and is validated with TROPOMI data directly. The differences between the predicted and actual amount of produced NO2 are integrated over observations of the ship in time and are used as a measure of the inspection worthiness of a ship. To add further evidence, we compare the obtained results with the results of the previously developed segmentation-based method. Ships that are also highly deviating in accordance with the segmentation method require further attention. If no other explanations can be found by checking the TROPOMI data, the respective ships are advised to be the candidates for inspection.

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Kurchaba, S.; Vliet, J. van; Verbeek, F.J.; Meulman, J.J.; Veenman, C.J. 2022

Supervised segmentation of NO2 plumes from individual ships using TROPOMI satellite data

Article / Letter to editor

open access

The shipping industry is one of the strongest anthropogenic emitters of NOxNOx—a substance harmful both to human health and the environment. The rapid growth of the industry causes societal... Show moreThe shipping industry is one of the strongest anthropogenic emitters of NOxNOx—a substance harmful both to human health and the environment. The rapid growth of the industry causes societal pressure on controlling the emission levels produced by ships. All the methods currently used for ship emission monitoring are costly and require proximity to a ship, which makes global and continuous emission monitoring impossible. A promising approach is the application of remote sensing. Studies showed that some of the NO2NO2 plumes from individual ships can visually be distinguished using the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument on board the Copernicus Sentinel 5 Precursor (TROPOMI/S5P). To deploy a remote-sensing-based global emission monitoring system, an automated procedure for the estimation of NO2NO2 emissions from individual ships is needed. The extremely low signal-to-noise ratio of the available data, as well as the absence of the ground truth makes the task very challenging. Here, we present a methodology for the automated segmentation of NO2NO2 plumes produced by seagoing ships using supervised machine learning on TROPOMI/S5P data. We show that the proposed approach leads to more than a 20% increase in the average precision score in comparison to the methods used in previous studies and results in a high correlation of 0.834 with the theoretically derived ship emission proxy. This work is a crucial step towards the development of an automated procedure for global ship emission monitoring using remote sensing data. Show less

Bruin, G.J. de; Pereira Barata, A.; Herik, H.J. van den; Takes, F.W.; Veenman, C.J. 2022

Fair automated assessment of noncompliance in cargo ship networks

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Cargo ships navigating global waters are required to be sufficiently safe and compliant with international treaties. Governmental inspectorates currently assess in a rule-based manner whether a... Show moreCargo ships navigating global waters are required to be sufficiently safe and compliant with international treaties. Governmental inspectorates currently assess in a rule-based manner whether a ship is potentially noncompliant and thus needs inspection. One of the dominant ship characteristics in this assessment is the ‘colour’ of the flag a ship is flying, where countries with a positive reputation have a so-called ‘white flag’. The colour of a flag may disproportionately influence the inspector, causing more frequent and stricter inspections of ships flying a non-white flag, resulting in confirmation bias in historical inspection data.In this paper, we propose an automated approach for the assessment of ship noncompliance, realising two important contributions. First, we reduce confirmation bias by using fair classifiers that decorrelate the flag from the risk classification returned by the model. Second, we extract mobility patterns from a cargo ship network, allowing us to derive meaningful features for ship classification. Crucially, these features model the behaviour of a ship, rather than its static properties. Our approach shows both a higher overall prediction performance and improved fairness with respect to the flag. Ultimately, this work enables inspectorates to better target noncompliant ships, thereby improving overall maritime safety and environmental protection. Show less

Bruin, G.J. de; Veenman, C.J.; Herik, H.J. van den; Takes, F.W. 2021

Supervised temporal link prediction in large-scale real-world networks

Article / Letter to editor

open access

Link prediction is a well-studied technique for inferring the missing edges between two nodes in some static representation of a network. In modern day social networks, the timestamps associated... Show moreLink prediction is a well-studied technique for inferring the missing edges between two nodes in some static representation of a network. In modern day social networks, the timestamps associated with each link can be used to predict future links between so-far unconnected nodes. In these so-called temporal networks, we speak of temporal link prediction. This paper presents a systematic investigation of supervised temporal link prediction on 26 temporal, structurally diverse, real-world networks ranging from thousands to a million nodes and links. We analyse the relation between global structural properties of each network and the obtained temporal link prediction performance, employing a set of well-established topological features commonly used in the link prediction literature. We report on four contributions. First, using temporal information, an improvement of prediction performance is observed. Second, our experiments show that degree disassortative networks perform better in temporal link prediction than assortative networks. Third, we present a new approach to investigate the distinction between networks modelling discrete events and networks modelling persistent relations. Unlike earlier work, our approach utilises information on all past events in a systematic way, resulting in substantially higher link prediction performance. Fourth, we report on the influence of the temporal activity of the node or the edge on the link prediction performance, and show that the performance differs depending on the considered network type. In the studied information networks, temporal information on the node appears most important. The findings in this paper demonstrate how link prediction can effectively be improved in temporal networks, explicitly taking into account the type of connectivity modelled by the temporal edge. More generally, the findings contribute to a better understanding of the mechanisms behind the evolution of networks. Show less

Bruin, G.J. de; Veenman, C.J.; Herik, H.J. van den; Takes, F.W. 2021

Experimental evaluation of train and test split strategies in link prediction

Article in monograph or in proceedings

open access

In link prediction, the goal is to predict which links will appear in the future of an evolving network. To estimate the performance of these models in a supervised machine learning model, disjoint... Show moreIn link prediction, the goal is to predict which links will appear in the future of an evolving network. To estimate the performance of these models in a supervised machine learning model, disjoint and independent train and test sets are needed. However, objects in a real-world network are inherently related to each other. Therefore, it is far from trivial to separate candidate links into these disjoint sets.Here we characterize and empirically investigate the two dominant approaches from the literature for creating separate train and test sets in link prediction, referred to as random and temporal splits. Comparing the performance of these two approaches on several large temporal network datasets, we find evidence that random splits may result in too optimistic results, whereas a temporal split may give a more fair and realistic indication of performance. Results appear robust to the selection of temporal intervals. These findings will be of interest to researchers that employ link prediction or other machine learning tasks in networks. Show less

Pereira Barata, A.P.; Takes, F.W.; Herik, H.J. van den; Veenman, C.J. 2020

The eXPose approach to crosslier detection

Article in monograph or in proceedings

open access

Bruin, G.J. de; Veenman, C.J.; Herik, H.J. van den; Takes, F.W. 2019

Understanding Dynamics of Truck Co-Driving Networks

Article in monograph or in proceedings

open access

The goal of this paper is to learn the dynamics of truck co-driving behaviour. Understanding this behaviour is important because co-driving has a potential positive impact on the environment. In... Show moreThe goal of this paper is to learn the dynamics of truck co-driving behaviour. Understanding this behaviour is important because co-driving has a potential positive impact on the environment. In the so-called co-driving network, trucks are nodes while links indicate that two trucks frequently drive together. To understand the network’s dynamics, we use a link prediction approach employing a machine learning classifier. The features of the classifier can be categorized into spatio-temporal features, neighbourhood features, path features, and node features. The very different types of features allow us to understand the social processes underlying the co-driving behaviour. Our work is based on a spatio-temporal data not studied before. Data is collected from 18 million truck movements in the Netherlands. We find that co-driving behaviour is best described by using neighbourhood features, and to lesser extent by path and spatio-temporal features. Node features are deemed unimportant. Findings suggest that the dynamics of a truck co-driving network has clear social network effects. Show less

Pereira Barata, A.P.; Bruin, G.J. de; Takes, F.W.; Veenman, C.J.; Herik, H.J. van den 2018

Data-driven risk assessment in infrastructure networks

Abstract

open access

Leiden University Scholarly Publications

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