Rationale & Objective: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have progressively replaced vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for stroke prevention in pa-tients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF).... Show moreRationale & Objective: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have progressively replaced vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for stroke prevention in pa-tients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). DOACs cause fewer bleeding complications, but their other advantages, particularly related to kid-ney outcomes, remain inconclusive. We studied the risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD) pro-gression and acute kidney injury (AKI) after DOAC and VKA administration for nonvalvular AF.Study Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting & Participants: Cohort study of Swedish patients enrolled in the Stockholm Creatinine Measurements (SCREAM) project with a diag-nosis of nonvalvular AF during 2011-2018. Exposure: Initiation of DOAC or VKA treatment.Outcome: Primary outcomes were CKD pro-gression (composite of >30% estimated glomer-ular filtration rate [eGFR] decline and kidney failure) and AKI (by diagnosis or KDIGO-defined transient creatinine elevations). Secondary outcomes were death, major bleeding, and the composite of stroke and systemic embolism.Analytical Approach: Propensity score weighted Cox regression was used to balance 50 baseline confounders. Sensitivity analyses included falsification end points, subgroups, and estima-tion of per-protocol effects.Results: We included 32,699 patients (56% initiated DOAC) who were observed for a me-dian of 3.8 years. Their median age was 75 years, 45% were women, and 27% had an eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. The adjusted HRs for DOAC versus VKA were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.78-0.9 8) for the risk of CKD progression and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.97) for AKI. HRs were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.8 9) for major bleeding, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.78-1.11) for the composite of stroke and systemic embolism, and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.95-1.14) for death. The results were similar across subgroups of age, sex, and baseline eGFR when restricting to patients at high risk for thromboembolic events and when censoring follow up at treatment discontinuation or change in type of anticoagulation.Limitations: Missing information on time in ther-apeutic range and treatment dosages.Conclusions: Among patients with nonvalvular AF treated in routine clinical practice compared with VKA use, DOAC use was associated with a lower risk of CKD progression, AKI, and major bleeding but a similar risk of the composite of stroke, systemic embolism, or death. Show less
Endt, V.H.W. van der; Milders, J.; Vries, B.B.L.P. de; Trines, S.A.; Groenwold, R.H.H.; Dekkers, O.M.; ... ; Jong, Y. de 2022
Aims Multiple risk scores to predict ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed. This study aims to systematically review these scores, their validations... Show moreAims Multiple risk scores to predict ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed. This study aims to systematically review these scores, their validations and updates, assess their methodological quality, and calculate pooled estimates of the predictive performance.Methods and results We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies developing, validating, or updating risk scores for IS in AF patients. Methodological quality was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). To assess discrimination, pooled c-statistics were calculated using random-effects meta-analysis. We identified 19 scores, which were validated and updated once or more in 70 and 40 studies, respectively, including 329 validations and 76 updates-nearly all on the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and CHADS(2). Pooled c-statistics were calculated among 6 267 728 patients and 359 373 events of IS. For the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and CHADS(2), pooled c-statistics were 0.644 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.635-0.653] and 0.658 (0.644-0.672), respectively. Better discriminatory abilities were found in the newer risk scores, with the modified-CHADS(2) demonstrating the best discrimination [c-statistic 0.715 (0.674-0.754)]. Updates were found for the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and CHADS(2) only, showing improved discrimination. Calibration was reasonable but available for only 17 studies. The PROBAST indicated a risk of methodological bias in all studies.Conclusion Nineteen risk scores and 76 updates are available to predict IS in patients with AF. The guideline-endorsed CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc shows inferior discriminative abilities compared with newer scores. Additional external validations and data on calibration are required before considering the newer scores in clinical practice. Show less
Aims Whether to continue or stop mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) after an episode of hyperkalaemia is a challenge in clinical practice. While stopping MRA may prevent recurrent... Show moreAims Whether to continue or stop mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) after an episode of hyperkalaemia is a challenge in clinical practice. While stopping MRA may prevent recurrent hyperkalaemias, it deprives patients of their cardioprotection. We here assessed the association between stopping vs. continuingMRA therapy after hyperkalaemia and the subsequent risks of adverse health events.Methods and results Observational study from the Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements (SCREAM) project 2006- 2018. We identified patients initiating MRA and surviving a first-detected episode of hyperkalaemia (plasma potassium >5.0 mmol/L). Using target trial emulation methods, we assessed the association between stopping vs. continuing MRA within 6months after hyperkalaemia and subsequent outcomes. The primary outcome was the composite of hospital admission with heart failure, stroke, myocardial infarction, or death. The secondary outcome was occurrence of another hyperkalaemia event. Among 39 518 patients initiating MRA, we identified 7366 who developed hyperkalaemia. Median age was 76 years, 45% were women and 69% had a history of heart failure. Following hyperkalaemia, 2222 (30%) discontinued treatment. Compared with continuing MRA, stopping therapy was associated with a lower 2-year risk of recurrent hyperkalaemia [hazard ratio (HR) 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.79], but a higher risk of the primary outcome (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.06-1.14). Similar results were observed in patients with heart failure, after censoring when treatment decision was changed, and across pre-specified subgroups.Conclusions Stopping MRA after an episode of hyperkalaemia was associated with reduced risk for recurrent hyperkalaemia, but higher risk of death or cardiovascular events. Recurrent hyperkalaemia was common in either strategy. Show less
Fu, E.L.; Diepen, M. van; Xu, Y.; Trevisan, M.; Dekker, F.W.; Zoccali, C.; ... ; Carrero, J.J. 2021
Observational pharmacoepidemiological studies using routinely collected healthcare data are increasingly being used in the field of nephrology to answer questions on the effectiveness and safety of... Show moreObservational pharmacoepidemiological studies using routinely collected healthcare data are increasingly being used in the field of nephrology to answer questions on the effectiveness and safety of medications. This review discusses a number of biases that may arise in such studies and proposes solutions to minimize them during the design or statistical analysis phase. We first describe designs to handle confounding by indication (e.g. active comparator design) and methods to investigate the influence of unmeasured confounding, such as the E-value, the use of negative control outcomes and control cohorts. We next discuss prevalent user and immortal time biases in pharmacoepidemiology research and how these can be prevented by focussing on incident users and applying either landmarking, using a time-varying exposure, or the cloning, censoring and weighting method. Lastly, we briefly discuss the common issues with missing data and misclassification bias. When these biases are properly accounted for, pharmacoepidemiological observational studies can provide valuable information for clinical practice. Show less
Randomized controlled trials on drug safety and effectiveness are the foundation of medical evidence, but they may have limited generalizability and be unpowered to detect rare and long-term kidney... Show moreRandomized controlled trials on drug safety and effectiveness are the foundation of medical evidence, but they may have limited generalizability and be unpowered to detect rare and long-term kidney outcomes. Observational studies in routine care data can complement and expand trial evidence on the use, safety and effectiveness of medications and aid with clinical decisions in areas where evidence is lacking. Access to routinely collected large healthcare data has resulted in the proliferation of studies addressing the effect of medications in patients with kidney diseases and this review provides an introduction to the science of pharmacoepidemiology to critically appraise them. In this first review we discuss the concept and applications of pharmacoepidemiology, describing methods for drug-utilization research and discussing the strengths and caveats of the most commonly used study designs to evaluate comparative drug safety and effectiveness. Show less
Jong, Y. de; Fu, E.L.; Diepen, M. van; Trevisan, M.; Szummer, K.; Dekker, F.W.; ... ; Ocak, G. 2021
Aims The increasing prevalence of ischaemic stroke (IS) can partly be explained by the likewise growing number of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Risk scores have been developed to... Show moreAims The increasing prevalence of ischaemic stroke (IS) can partly be explained by the likewise growing number of patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Risk scores have been developed to identify high-risk patients, allowing for personalized anticoagulation therapy. However, predictive performance in CKD is unclear. The aim of this study is to validate six commonly used risk scores for IS in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients across the spectrum of kidney function.Methods and results Overall, 36 004 subjects with newly diagnosed AF from SCREAM (Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements), a healthcare utilization cohort of Stockholm residents, were included. Predictive performance of the AFI, CHADS(2), Modified CHADS(2), CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc, ATRIA, and GARFIELD-AF risk scores was evaluated across three strata of kidney function: normal kidney function [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)], mild CKD (eGFR 30-60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), and advanced CKD (eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. During 1.9 years, 3069 (8.5%) patients suffered an IS. Discrimination was dependent on eGFR: the median c-statistic in normal eGFR was 0.75 (range 0.68-0.78), but decreased to 0.68 (0.58-0.73) and 0.68 (0.55-0.74) for mild and advanced CKD, respectively. Calibration was reasonable and largely independent of eGFR. The Modified CHADS(2) score showed good performance across kidney function strata, both for discrimination [c-statistic: 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.77-0.79), 0.73 (0.71-0.74) and 0.74 (0.69-0.79), respectively] and calibration.Conclusion In the most clinically relevant stages of CKD, predictive performance of the majority of risk scores was poor, increasing the risk of misclassification and thus of over- or undertreatment. The Modified CHADS2 score performed good and consistently across all kidney function strata, and should therefore be preferred for risk estimation in AF patients. Show less
Fu, E.L.; Trevisan, M.; Clase, C.M.; Evans, M.; Lindholm, B.; Rotmans, J.I.; ... ; Carrero, J.J. 2019
Background and objectives Data from observational and interventional studies provide discordant results regarding the relationship between creatinine increase after renin-angiotensin system... Show moreBackground and objectives Data from observational and interventional studies provide discordant results regarding the relationship between creatinine increase after renin-angiotensin system inhibition (RASi) and adverse outcomes. We compared health outcomes among patients with different categories of increase in creatinine upon initiation of RASi in a large population-based cohort.Design, setting, participants, & measurements We performed a retrospective analysis of the Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements database, which contains complete information on diagnoses, medication dispensation claims, and laboratory test results for all Stockholm citizens accessing health care. Included were 31,951 adults initiating RASi during 2007-2011 with available pre- and postinitiation creatinine monitoring. Multivariable Cox regression was used to compare mortality, cardiovascular and ESKD events among individuals with different ranges of creatinine increases within 2 months after starting treatment.Results In a median follow-up of 3.5 years, acute increases in creatinine were associated with mortality (3202 events) in a graded manner: compared with creatinine increases <10%, a 10%-19% increase showed an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.15 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05 to 1.27); HR 1.22 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.40) for 20%-29%; HR 1.55 (95% CI, 1.36 to 1.77) for >= 30%. Similar graded associations were present for heart failure (2275 events, P<0.001) and ESKD (52 events; P<0.001), and, less consistently, myocardial infarction (842 events, P=0.25). Results were robust across subgroups, among continuing users, when patients with decreases in creatinine were excluded from the reference group, and after accounting for death as a competing risk.Conclusions Among real-world monitored adults, increases in creatinine (>10%) after initiation of RASi are associated with worse health outcomes. These results do not address the issue of discontinuation of RASi when plasma creatinine increases but do suggest that patients with increases in creatinine have higher subsequent risk of cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. Show less
Aims There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention... Show moreAims There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29 39% of individuals aged >= 40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44 51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need. Show less
Klatte, D.C.F.; Gasparini, A.; Xu, H.; Deco, P. de; Trevisan, M.; Johansson, A.L.V.; ... ; Carrero, J.J. 2017
Background Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed... Show moreBackground Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances. Methods We undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease. Findings Analyses included data for 698 782 people (52765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8.49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2.00 (95% CI 1.83-2.19) for coronary heart disease; 2.27 (1.95-2.65) for ischaemic stroke; 1.56 (1.19-2.05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1.84 (1.59-2.13) for unclassified stroke; and 1.73 (1.51-1.98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40-59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10-12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3.90 mmol/L and 5.59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3.90-5.59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1.07 (0.97-1.18) for lower than 3.90 mmol/L; 1.11 (1.04-1.18) for 5.60-6-09 mmol/L; and 1.17 (1.08-1.26) for 6.10-6.99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors. Interpretation Diabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and nonlinearly associated with risk of vascular disease. Show less
Background Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge... Show moreBackground Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge likelihood of causality. Methods We assessed the -1131T>C (rs662799) promoter polymorphism of the apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) gene in relation to triglyceride concentration, several other risk factors, and risk of coronary heart disease. We compared disease risk for genetically-raised triglyceride concentration (20 842 patients with coronary heart disease, 35 206 controls) with that recorded for equivalent differences in circulating triglyceride concentration in prospective studies (302 430 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease; 12 785 incident cases of coronary heart disease during 2.79 million person-years at risk). We analysed -1131T>C in 1795 people without a history of cardiovascular disease who had information about lipoprotein concentration and diameter obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Findings The minor allele frequency of -1131T>C was 8% (95% CI 7-9). -1131T>C was not significantly associated with several non-lipid risk factors or LDL cholesterol, and it was modestly associated with lower HDL cholesterol (mean difference per C allele 3.5% [95% CI 2.6-4.6]; 0.053 mmol/L [0.039-0.068]), lower apolipoprotein AI (1.3% [0.3-2.3]; 0.023 g/L [0.005-0.041]), and higher apolipoprotein B (3.2% [1.3-5.1]; 0.027 g/L [0.011-0.043]). By contrast, for every C allele inherited, mean triglyceride concentration was 16.0% (95% CI 12.9-18.7), or 0.25 mmol/L (0.20-0.29), higher (p=4.4x10(-24)). The odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.18 (95% CI 1.11-1.26; p=2.6x10(-7)) per C allele, which was concordant with the hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 1.08-1.12) per 16% higher triglyceride concentration recorded in prospective studies. -1131T>C was significantly associated with higher VLDL particle concentration (mean difference per C allele 12.2 nmol/L [95% CI 7.7-16.7]; p=9.3x10(-8)) and smaller HDL particle size (0.14 nm [0.08-0.20]; p=7.0x10(-5)), factors that could mediate the effects of triglyceride. Interpretation These data are consistent with a causal association between triglyceride-mediated pathways and coronary heart disease. Show less
Background Associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration with risk of major diseases can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. We assessed the... Show moreBackground Associations of C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration with risk of major diseases can best be assessed by long-term prospective follow-up of large numbers of people. We assessed the associations of CRP concentration with risk of vascular and non-vascular outcomes under different circumstances. Methods We meta-analysed individual records of 160 309 people without a history of vascular disease (ie, 1.31 million person-years at risk, 27769 fatal or non-fatal disease outcomes) from 54 long-term prospective studies. Within-study regression analyses were adjusted for within-person variation in risk factor levels. Results Log(c) CRP concentration was linearly associated with several conventional risk factors and inflammatory markers, and nearly log-linearly with the risk of ischaemic vascular disease and non-vascular mortality. Risk ratios (RRs) for coronary heart disease per 1-SD higher log, CRP concentration (three-fold higher) were 1.63 (95% CI 1.51-1.76) when initially adjusted for age and sex only, and 1.37 (1.27-1.48) when adjusted further for conventional risk factors; 1.44 (1.32-1.57) and 1.27 (1.15-1.40) for ischaemic stroke; 1.71 (1.53-1.91) and 1.55 (1.37-1.76) for vascular mortality; and 1.55 (1.41-1.69) and 1.54 (1.40-1.68) for non-vascular mortality RRs were largely unchanged after exclusion of smokers or initial follow-up. After further adjustment for fibrinogen, the corresponding RRs were 1.23 (1.07-1.42) for coronary heart disease; 1.32 (1.18-1.49) for ischaemic stroke; 1.34 (1.18-1.52) for vascular mortality; and 1.34 (1.20-1.50) for non-vascular mortality. Interpretation CRP concentration has continuous associations with the risk of coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, vascular mortality, and death from several cancers and lung disease that are each of broadly similar size. The relevance of CRP to such a range of disorders is unclear. Associations with ischaemic vascular disease depend considerably on conventional risk factors and other markers of inflammation. Funding British Heart Foundation, UK Medical Research Council, BUPA Foundation, and GlaxoSmithKline. Show less