AimTo examine the ability of serum proteins in predicting future heart failure (HF) events, including HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF or HFpEF), in relation to event time, and... Show moreAimTo examine the ability of serum proteins in predicting future heart failure (HF) events, including HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF or HFpEF), in relation to event time, and with or without considering established HF-associated clinical variables.Methods and resultsIn the prospective population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES-RS), 440 individuals developed HF after their first visit with a median follow-up of 5.45 years. Among them, 167 were diagnosed with HFrEF and 188 with HFpEF. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model with non-parametric bootstrap were used to select predictors from an analysis of 4782 serum proteins, and several pre-established clinical parameters linked to HF. A subset of 8-10 distinct or overlapping serum proteins predicted different future HF outcomes, and C-statistics were used to assess discrimination, revealing proteins combined with a C-index of 0.80 for all incident HF, 0.78 and 0.80 for incident HFpEF or HFrEF, respectively. In the AGES-RS, protein panels alone encompassed the risk contained in the clinical information and improved the performance characteristics of prediction models based on N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and clinical risk factors. Finally, the protein predictors performed particularly well close to the time of an HF event, an outcome that was replicated in the Cardiovascular Health Study.ConclusionA small number of circulating proteins accurately predicted future HF in the AGES-RS cohort of older adults, and they alone encompass the risk information found in a collection of clinical data. Incident HF events were predicted up to 8 years, with predictor performance significantly improving for events occurring less than 1 year ahead, a finding replicated in an external cohort study.The ability of the deep circulating proteome to predict future heart failure (HF) events, including its primary subtypes, in relation to event time and known HF-associated clinical factors was studied in two prospective population-based cohorts. AGES-RS, Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study; CHS, Cardiovascular Health Study; HF, heart failure; HFpEF, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; LASSO, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.dagger image Show less
Aims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targets) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure.Methods and results The consortium... Show moreAims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targets) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure.Methods and results The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome-wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow-up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty-nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34-90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of >1.10 for common variants (allele frequency > 0.05) and >1.20 for low-frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01-0.05) at P < 5 x 10(-8) under an additive genetic model.Conclusions HERMES is a global collaboration aiming to (i) identify the genetic determinants of heart failure; (ii) generate insights into the causal pathways leading to heart failure and enable genetic approaches to target prioritization; and (iii) develop genomic tools for disease stratification and risk prediction. Show less
Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we... Show moreGenetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency <= 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 x 10(-8)), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were similar to 8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets. Show less
Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association... Show moreHeart failure (HF) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A small proportion of HF cases are attributable to monogenic cardiomyopathies and existing genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have yielded only limited insights, leaving the observed heritability of HF largely unexplained. We report results from a GWAS meta-analysis of HF comprising 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls. Twelve independent variants at 11 genomic loci are associated with HF, all of which demonstrate one or more associations with coronary artery disease (CAD), atrial fibrillation, or reduced left ventricular function, suggesting shared genetic aetiology. Functional analysis of non-CAD-associated loci implicate genes involved in cardiac development (MYOZ1, SYNPO2L), protein homoeostasis (BAG3), and cellular senescence (CDKN1A). Mendelian randomisation analysis supports causal roles for several HF risk factors, and demonstrates CAD-independent effects for atrial fibrillation, body mass index, and hypertension. These findings extend our knowledge of the pathways underlying HF and may inform new therapeutic strategies. Show less
Background and Purpose-Several cardiovascular risk factors are associated with cognitive disorders in older persons. Little is known about the association of the burden of coronary atherosclerosis... Show moreBackground and Purpose-Several cardiovascular risk factors are associated with cognitive disorders in older persons. Little is known about the association of the burden of coronary atherosclerosis with brain structure and function. Methods-This is a cross-sectional analysis of data from the Age, Gene, Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik Study cohort of men and women born 1907 to 1935. Coronary artery calcification (CAC), a marker of atherosclerotic burden, was measured with CT. Memory, speed of processing, and executive function composites were calculated from a cognitive test battery. Dementia was assessed in a multistep procedure and diagnosed according to international guidelines. Quantitative data on total intracranial and tissue volumes (total, gray matter volume, white matter volume, and white matter lesion volume), cerebral infarcts, and cerebral microbleeds were obtained with brain MRI. The association of CAC with dementia (n=165 cases) and cognitive function in nondemented subjects (n=4085), and separately with MRI outcomes, was examined in multivariate models adjusting for demographic and vascular risk factors. Analyses tested whether brain structure mediated the associations of CAC to cognitive function. Results-Subjects with higher CAC were more likely to have dementia and lower cognitive scores, more likely to have lower white matter volume, gray matter volume, and total brain tissue, and to have more cerebral infarcts, cerebral microbleeds, and white matter lesions. The relations of cognitive performance and dementia to CAC were significantly attenuated when the models were adjusted for brain lesions and volumes. Conclusions-In a population-based sample, increasing atherosclerotic load assessed by CAC is associated with poorer cognitive performance and dementia, and these relations are mediated by evidence of brain pathology. (Stroke. 2010;41:891-897.) Show less
