Background: For clinical decision making it is important to identify patients at risk for adverse outcomes after co-lorectal cancer (CRC) surgery, especially in the older population. Because the... Show moreBackground: For clinical decision making it is important to identify patients at risk for adverse outcomes after co-lorectal cancer (CRC) surgery, especially in the older population. Because the American College of Surgeons Na-tional Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) surgical risk calculator is potentially useful in clinical practice, we performed an external validation in a Dutch multicenter cohort of patients >= 70 years undergoing elective non-metastatic CRC surgery.Methods: We compared the ACS NSQIP calculator mean predicted risk to the overall observed rate of anastomotic leakage, return to operation room, pneumonia, discharge not to home, and readmission in our cohort using a one-sample Z-test. Calibration plots and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the calculator's performance.Results: Six hundred eighty-two patients were included. Median age was 76.2 years. The ACS NSQIP calculator ac-curately predicted the overall readmission rate (predicted: 8.6% vs. observed: 7.8%, p = 0.456), overestimated the rate of discharge not to home (predicted:11.2% vs. observed: 7.0% p = 0.005) and underestimated the observed rate of all other outcomes. The calibration plots showed poor calibration for all outcomes. The ROC-curve showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.67-0.83) for pneumonia and 0.70 (0.62-0.78) for discharge not to home. The AUC for all other outcomes was poor.Conclusions: The ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator had a poor individual risk prediction (calibration) for all out-comes and only a fair discriminative ability (discrimination) to predict pneumonia and discharge not to home. The calculator might be considered to identify patients at high risk of pneumonia and discharge not to home to initiate additional preoperative interventions. (c) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Show less
Argillander, T.E.; Hulst, H.C. van der; Zaag-loonen, H.J. van der; Duijvendijk, P. van; Dekker, J.W.T.; Bol, J.M. van der; ... ; Munster, B.C. van 2022
Introduction: Older patients have a higher risk for complications after rectal cancer surgery. Although screening for geriatric impairments may improve risk prediction in this group, it has not... Show moreIntroduction: Older patients have a higher risk for complications after rectal cancer surgery. Although screening for geriatric impairments may improve risk prediction in this group, it has not been studied previously. Methods: We retrospectively investigated patients >= 70 years with elective surgery for non-metastatic rectal cancer between 2014 and 2018 in nine Dutch hospitals. The predictive value of six geriatric parameters in combination with standard preoperative predictors was studied for postoperative complications, delirium, and length of stay (LOS) using logistic regression analyses. The geriatric parameters included the four VMS -questionnaire items pertaining to functional impairment, fall risk, delirium risk, and malnutrition, as well as mobility problems and polypharmacy. Standard predictors included age, sex, body mass index, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA)-classification, comorbidities, tumor stage, and neoadjuvant therapy. Changes in model performance were evaluated by comparing Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the regression models with and without geriatric parameters. Results: We included 575 patients (median age 75 years; 32% female). None of the geriatric parameters improved risk prediction for complications or LOS. The addition of delirium risk to the standard preoperative prediction model improved model performance for predicting postoperative delirium (AUC 0.75 vs 0.65, p = 0.03). Conclusions: Geriatric parameters did not improve risk prediction for postoperative complications or LOS in older patients with rectal cancer. Delirium risk screening using the VMS-questionnaire improved risk prediction for delirium. Older patients undergoing rectal cancer surgery are a pre-selected group with few impairments. Geriatric screening may have additional value earlier in the care pathway before treatment decisions are made. Show less
Simple Summary The objective was to develop and internally validate a predictive model based on preoperative predictors, including geriatric characteristics, for severe postoperative complications... Show moreSimple Summary The objective was to develop and internally validate a predictive model based on preoperative predictors, including geriatric characteristics, for severe postoperative complications after elective surgery for stage I-III CRC in patients >= 70 years. Potential predictors included demographics, comorbidity, tumour location, activities of daily living (ADL), history of falls, malnutrition, risk factors for delirium, use of mobility aid and polypharmacy. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used for predictor selection and prediction model building. A geriatric model that included gender, previous DVT or pulmonary embolism, COPD/asthma/emphysema, rectal cancer, the use of a mobility aid, ADL assistance, previous delirium and polypharmacy showed satisfactory discrimination with an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.73-0.64); the AUC for the optimism corrected model was 0.65. An eight-item colorectal geriatric model (GerCRC) was developed. After external validation, this risk model has the potential to be used for preoperative (shared) decision-making. Introduction Older patients have an increased risk of morbidity and mortality after colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery. Existing CRC surgical prediction models have not incorporated geriatric predictors, limiting applicability for preoperative decision-making. The objective was to develop and internally validate a predictive model based on preoperative predictors, including geriatric characteristics, for severe postoperative complications after elective surgery for stage I-III CRC in patients >= 70 years. Patients and Methods: A prospectively collected database contained 1088 consecutive patients from five Dutch hospitals (2014-2017) with 171 severe complications (16%). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used for predictor selection and prediction model building. Internal validation was done using bootstrapping. Results: A geriatric model that included gender, previous DVT or pulmonary embolism, COPD/asthma/emphysema, rectal cancer, the use of a mobility aid, ADL assistance, previous delirium and polypharmacy showed satisfactory discrimination with an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.73-0.64); the AUC for the optimism corrected model was 0.65. Based on these predictors, the eight-item colorectal geriatric model (GerCRC) was developed. Conclusion: The GerCRC is the first prediction model specifically developed for older patients expected to undergo CRC surgery. Combining tumour- and patient-specific predictors, including geriatric predictors, improves outcome prediction in the heterogeneous older population. Show less
Background: Although self-expandable metal stent (SEMS) placement as bridge to surgery (BTS) in patients with left-sided obstructing colonic cancer has shown promising short-term results, it is... Show moreBackground: Although self-expandable metal stent (SEMS) placement as bridge to surgery (BTS) in patients with left-sided obstructing colonic cancer has shown promising short-term results, it is used infrequently owing to uncertainty about its oncological safety. This population study compared long-term oncological outcomes between emergency resection and SEMS placement as BTS.Methods: Through a national collaborative research project, long-term outcome data were collected for all patients who underwent resection for left-sided obstructing colonic cancer between 2009 and 2016 in 75 Dutch hospitals. Patients were identified from the Dutch Colorectal Audit database. SEMS as BTS was compared with emergency resection in the curative setting after 1: 2 propensity score matching.Results: Some 222 patients who had a stent placed were matched to 444 who underwent emergency resection. The overall SEMS-related perforation rate was 7.7 per cent (17 of 222). Three-year locoregional recurrence rates after SEMS insertion and emergency resection were 11-4 and 13.6 per cent (P= 0-457), disease-free survival rates were 58-8 and 52.6 per cent (P= 0-175), and overall survival rates were 74-0 and 68-3 per cent (P= 0.231), respectively. SEMS placement resulted in significantly fewer permanent stomas (23.9 versus 45.3 per cent; P < 0-001), especially in elderly patients (29.0 versus 57.9 per cent; P < 0-001). For patients in the SEMS group with or without perforation, 3-year locoregional recurrence rates were 18 and 11.0 per cent (P= 0.432), disease-free survival rates were 49 and 59.6 per cent (P= 0-717), and overall survival rates 61 and 75.1 per cent (P= 0.529), respectively.Conclusion: Overall, SEMS as BTS seems an oncologically safe alternative to emergency resection with fewer permanent stomas. Nevertheless, the risk of SEMS-related perforation, as well as permanent stoma, might influence shared decision-making for individual patients. Show less
Background. The time interval between CRT and surgery in rectal cancer patients is still the subject of debate. The aim of this study was to first evaluate the nationwide use of restaging magnetic... Show moreBackground. The time interval between CRT and surgery in rectal cancer patients is still the subject of debate. The aim of this study was to first evaluate the nationwide use of restaging magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and its impact on timing of surgery, and, second, to evaluate the impact of timing of surgery after chemoradiotherapy (CRT) on short- and long-term outcomes.Methods. Patients were selected from a collaborative rectal cancer research project including 71 Dutch centres, and were subdivided into two groups according to time interval from the start of preoperative CRT to surgery (< 14 and ae14 weeks).Results. From 2095 registered patients, 475 patients received preoperative CRT. MRI restaging was performed in 79.4% of patients, with a median CRT-MRI interval of 10 weeks (interquartile range [IQR] 8-11) and a median MRI-surgery interval of 4 weeks (IQR 2-5). The CRT-surgery interval groups consisted of 224 (< 14 weeks) and 251 patients (>= 14 weeks), and the long-interval group included a higher proportion of cT4 stage and multivisceral resection patients. Pathological complete response rate (n = 34 [15.2%] vs. n = 47 [18.7%], p = 0.305) and CRM involvement (9.7% vs. 15.9%, p = 0.145) did not significantly differ. Thirty-day surgical complications were similar (20.1% vs. 23.1%, p = 0.943), however no significant differences were found for local and distant recurrence rates, disease-free survival, and overall survival.Conclusions. These real-life data, reflecting routine daily practice in The Netherlands, showed substantial variability in the use and timing of restaging MRI after preoperative CRT for rectal cancer, as well as time interval to surgery. Surgery before or after 14 weeks from the start of CRT resulted in similar short- and long-term outcomes. Show less
Borstlap, W.A.A.; Deijen, C.L.; Dulk, M. den; Bonjer, H.J.; Velde, C.J. van de; Bemelman, W.A.; ... ; Dutch Snapshot Res Grp 2017
Aim A Snapshot study design eliminates changes in treatment and outcome over time. This population based Snapshot study aimed to determine current practice and outcome of rectal cancer treatment... Show moreAim A Snapshot study design eliminates changes in treatment and outcome over time. This population based Snapshot study aimed to determine current practice and outcome of rectal cancer treatment with published landmark randomized controlled trials as a benchmark.Method In this collaborative research project, the dataset of the Dutch Surgical Colorectal Audit was extended with additional treatment and long-term outcome data. All registered patients who underwent resection for rectal cancer in 2011 were eligible. Baseline characteristics and outcome were evaluated against the results of the Dutch TME trial and the COLOR II trial from which the original datasets were obtained.Results A total of 71 hospitals participated, and data were completed for 2102 out of the potential 2633 patients (79.8%). Median follow-up was 41 (interquartile range 25-47) months. Overall circumferential resection margin (CRM) involvement was 9.3% in the Snapshot cohort and 18.5% in the Dutch TME trial. CRM positivity after laparoscopic resection was 7.8% in the Snapshot and 9.5% in the COLOR II trial. Three-year overall local recurrence rate in the Snapshot was 5.9%, with a disease-free survival of 67.1% and overall survival of 79.5%. Benchmarking with the randomized controlled trials revealed an overall favourable long-term outcome of the Snapshot cohort.Conclusion This study showed that current rectal cancer care in a large unselected Dutch population is of high quality, with less positive CRM since the TME trial and oncologically safe implementation of minimally invasive surgery after the COLOR II trial. Show less
