BackgroundAlthough cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is common, lymph node metastases are relatively rare and are usually treated with lymph node dissection (LND). The aim of this study was... Show moreBackgroundAlthough cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) is common, lymph node metastases are relatively rare and are usually treated with lymph node dissection (LND). The aim of this study was to describe the clinical course and prognosis after LND for cSCC at all anatomical locations.MethodsA retrospective search at three centres was performed to identify patients with lymph node metastases of cSCC who were treated with LND. Prognostic factors were identified by uni- and multivariable analysis.ResultsA total of 268 patients were identified with a median age of 74. All lymph node metastases were treated with LND, and 65% of the patients received adjuvant radiotherapy. After LND, 35% developed recurrent disease both locoregionally and distantly. Patients with more than one positive lymph node had an increased risk for recurrent disease.165 (62%) patients died during follow-up of whom 77 (29%) due to cSCC. The 5-year OS- and DSS rate were 36% and 52%, respectively. Disease-specific survival was significantly worse in immunosuppressed patients, patients with primary tumors >2cm and patients with more than one positive lymph node.ConclusionsThis study shows that LND for patients with lymph node metastases of cSCC leads to a 5-year DSS of 52%. After LND, approximately one-third of the patients develop recurrent disease (locoregional and/or distant), which underscores the need for better systemic treatment options for locally advanced cSCC. The size of the primary tumor, more than one positive lymph node, and immunosuppression are independent predictors for risk of recurrence and disease-specific survival after LND for cSCC. Show less
IMPORTANCE Prognostication is an important aspect of clinical decision-making, but it is often challenging. Previous studies show that both patients and physicians tend to overestimate survival... Show moreIMPORTANCE Prognostication is an important aspect of clinical decision-making, but it is often challenging. Previous studies show that both patients and physicians tend to overestimate survival chances. Prediction models may assist in estimating and quantifying prognosis. However, insufficient understanding of the development, possibilities, and limitations of such models can lead to misinterpretations. Although many excellent books and comprehensive methodological articles on prognostic model research are published, they may not be accessible enough for the clinical audience. Our aim is to provide an overview on the main issues regarding prediction research for health care professionals to achieve better interpretation and increase the use of prognostic models in daily clinical practice.OBSERVATIONS The first steps of model development include coding of predictors, model specification, and estimation. Next, we discuss the assessment of the performance of a prediction model, including discrimination and calibration aspects, followed by approaches to internal and external validation and updating. Finally, model reporting, presentation, and steps toward clinical implementation are presented.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE After thorough consideration of the research question, data inspection, and coding of predictors, one can start with the specification of a prediction model. The number of candidate predictors should be kept limited, in view of the number of events in the data, to prevent overfitting. Calibration and discrimination are 2 aspects of model performance that complement each other and should be assessed preferably at external validation. Model development should be accompanied by qualitative research among patients and physicians to facilitate the development of a valuable tool and maximize possibilities for successful implementation. After model presentation is optimized, impact studies are required to assess the clinical value of a prediction model. Show less
