The public health impact of a harmful exposure can be quantified by the population-attributable fraction (PAF). The PAF describes the attributable risk due to an exposure and is often interpreted... Show moreThe public health impact of a harmful exposure can be quantified by the population-attributable fraction (PAF). The PAF describes the attributable risk due to an exposure and is often interpreted as the proportion of preventable cases if the exposure was extinct. Difficulties in the definition and interpretation of the PAF arise when the exposure of interest depends on time. Then, the definition of exposed and unexposed individuals is not straightforward. We propose dynamic prediction and landmarking to define and estimate a PAF in this data situation. Two estimands are discussed which are based on two hypothetical interventions that could prevent the exposure in different ways. Considering the first estimand, at each landmark the estimation problem is reduced to a time-independent setting. Then, estimation is simply performed by using a generalized-linear model accounting for the current exposure state and further (time-varying) covariates. The second estimand is based on counterfactual outcomes, estimation can be performed using pseudo-values or inverse-probability weights. The approach is explored in a simulation study and applied on two data examples. First, we study a large French database of intensive care unit patients to estimate the population-benefit of a pathogen-specific intervention that could prevent ventilator-associated pneumonia caused by the pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Moreover, we quantify the population-attributable burden of locoregional and distant recurrence in breast cancer patients. Show less
Putter, H.; Schumacher, M.; Houwelingen, H.C. van 2020
The Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model has been puzzling many people since its introduction. The main reason for the uneasy feeling is that the approach considers individuals... Show moreThe Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model has been puzzling many people since its introduction. The main reason for the uneasy feeling is that the approach considers individuals still at risk for an event of cause 1 after they fell victim to the competing risk of cause 2. The subdistribution hazard and the extended risk sets, where subjects who failed of the competing risk remain in the risk set, are generally perceived as unnatural. One could say it is somewhat of a riddle why the Fine-Gray approach yields valid inference. To take away these uneasy feelings, we explore the link between the Fine-Gray and cause-specific approaches in more detail. We introduce the reduction factor as representing the proportion of subjects in the Fine-Gray risk set that has not yet experienced a competing event. In the presence of covariates, the dependence of the reduction factor on a covariate gives information on how the effect of the covariate on the cause-specific hazard and the subdistribution hazard relate. We discuss estimation and modeling of the reduction factor, and show how they can be used in various ways to estimate cumulative incidences, given the covariates. Methods are illustrated on data of the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Show less
Nicola, A.F. de; Meyer, M.; Guennoun, R.; Schumacher, M.; Hunt, H.; Belanoff, J.; ... ; Deniselle, M.C.G. 2020
Glucocorticoids are crucial for stress-coping, resilience, and adaptation. However, if the stress hormones become dysregulated, the vulnerability to stress-related diseases is enhanced. In this... Show moreGlucocorticoids are crucial for stress-coping, resilience, and adaptation. However, if the stress hormones become dysregulated, the vulnerability to stress-related diseases is enhanced. In this brief review, we discuss the role of glucocorticoids in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disorders in both human and animal models, and focus in particular on amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). For this purpose, we used the Wobbler animal model, which mimics much of the pathology of ALS including a dysfunctional hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis. We discuss recent studies that demonstrated that the pathological cascade characteristic for motoneuron degeneration of ALS is mimicked in the genetically selected Wobbler mouse and can be attenuated by treatment with the selective glucocorticoid receptor antagonist (GRA) CORT113176. In long-term treatment (3 weeks) GRA attenuated progression of the behavioral, inflammatory, excitatory, and cell-death-signaling pathways while increasing the survival signal of serine-threonine kinase (pAkt). The action mechanism of the GRA may be either by interfering with GR deactivation or by restoring the balance between pro- and anti-inflammatory signaling pathways driven by the complementary mineralocorticoid receptor (MR)- and GR-mediated actions of corticosterone. Accordingly, GR antagonism may have clinical relevance for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases. Show less
