Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk... Show moreBackground To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
BACKGROUND Venous thromboembolic events (VTE), including deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, are common in older age. It has been suggested that statins might reduce the risk of VTE... Show moreBACKGROUND Venous thromboembolic events (VTE), including deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, are common in older age. It has been suggested that statins might reduce the risk of VTE however positive results from studies of middle aged subjects may not be generalisable to elderly people. We aimed to determine the effect of pravastatin on incident VTE in older people; we also studied the impact of clinical and plasma risk variables. METHODS This study was an analysis of incident VTE using data from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER), a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of pravastatin in men and women aged 70-82. Mean follow-up was 3.2 years. Risk for VTE was examined in non-warfarin treated pravastatin (n = 2834) and placebo (n = 2865) patients using a Cox's proportional hazard model, and the impact of other risk factors assessed in a multivariate forward stepwise regression analysis. Baseline clinical characteristics, blood biochemistry and hematology variables, plasma levels of lipids and lipoproteins, and plasma markers of inflammation and adiposity were compared. Plasma markers of thrombosis and hemostasis were assessed in a nested case (n = 48) control (n = 93) study where the cohort was those participants, not on warfarin, for whom data were available. RESULTS There were 28 definite cases (1.0%) of incident VTE in the pravastatin group recipients and 20 cases (0.70%) in placebo recipients. Pravastatin did not reduce VTE in PROSPER compared to placebo [unadjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.42 (0.80, 2.52) p = 0.23]. Higher body mass index (BMI) [1.09 (1.02, 1.15) p = 0.0075], country [Scotland vs Netherlands 4.26 (1.00, 18.21) p = 0.050 and Ireland vs Netherlands 6.16 (1.46, 26.00) p = 0.013], lower systolic blood pressure [1.35 (1.03, 1.75) p = 0.027] and lower baseline Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) score [1.19 (1.01, 1.41) p = 0.034] were associated with an increased risk of VTE, however only BMI, country and systolic blood pressure remained significant on multivariate analysis. In a nested case control study of definite VTE, plasma Factor VIII levels were associated with VTE [1.52 (1.01, 2.28), p = 0.044]. However no other measure of thrombosis and haemostasis was associated with increased risk of VTE. CONCLUSIONS Pravastatin does not prevent VTE in elderly people at risk of vascular disease. Blood markers of haemostasis and inflammation are not strongly predictive of VTE in older age however BMI, country and lower systolic blood pressure are independently associated with VTE risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION Not applicable when study undertaken. Show less
Freeman, D.J.; Robertson, M.; Brown, E.A.; Rumley, A.; Tobias, E.S.; Frolich, M.; ... ; Stott, D.J. 2011
Background Statin therapy has been found to substantially and significantly reduce coronary events in carriers of the KIF6 719Arg variant (rs20455) but not in noncarriers. We investigated whether,... Show moreBackground Statin therapy has been found to substantially and significantly reduce coronary events in carriers of the KIF6 719Arg variant (rs20455) but not in noncarriers. We investigated whether, among the elderly, statin therapy also significantly reduced coronary events in carriers but not in noncarriers. Design and methods Among 5752 patients of the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study, we assessed the effect of pravastatin, compared with placebo, on coronary events according to 719Arg carrier status using proportional hazards models. Results Since benefit from statin therapy in elderly patients has been primarily shown among those with prior vascular disease, we performed analyses in PROSPER patients with prior disease and found that pravastatin therapy significantly reduced events in 719Arg carriers [hazards ratio (HR): 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.52-0.86] but not in noncarriers (HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.69-1.28), P = 0.09 for interaction between treatment and carrier status. Among those without prior disease, no significant benefit was observed in either carriers or noncarriers. Among those with prior vascular disease in the placebo arm, Trp719Arg heterozygotes were at significantly greater risk, compared with noncarriers (HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.03-1.81, P = 0.03); the HR of 719Arg carriers, compared with noncarriers, was 1.28 (95% CI: 0.98-1.69, P = 0.07). Conclusion Elderly carriers of the KIF6 719Arg variant with prior vascular disease received significant benefit from pravastatin therapy; no benefit was observed in noncarriers with prior disease or in those without prior disease (carriers or noncarriers). Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 17:455-461 (C) 2010 The European Society of Cardiology Show less
Sarwar, N.; Gao, P.; Seshasai, S.R.K.; Gobin, R.; Kaptoge, S.; Angelantonio, E. di; ... ; Erqou, S. 2010
Background Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed... Show moreBackground Uncertainties persist about the magnitude of associations of diabetes mellitus and fasting glucose concentration with risk of coronary heart disease and major stroke subtypes. We aimed to quantify these associations for a wide range of circumstances. Methods We undertook a meta-analysis of individual records of diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration, and other risk factors in people without initial vascular disease from studies in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. We combined within-study regressions that were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and body-mass index to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for vascular disease. Findings Analyses included data for 698 782 people (52765 non-fatal or fatal vascular outcomes; 8.49 million person-years at risk) from 102 prospective studies. Adjusted HRs with diabetes were: 2.00 (95% CI 1.83-2.19) for coronary heart disease; 2.27 (1.95-2.65) for ischaemic stroke; 1.56 (1.19-2.05) for haemorrhagic stroke; 1.84 (1.59-2.13) for unclassified stroke; and 1.73 (1.51-1.98) for the aggregate of other vascular deaths. HRs did not change appreciably after further adjustment for lipid, inflammatory, or renal markers. HRs for coronary heart disease were higher in women than in men, at 40-59 years than at 70 years and older, and with fatal than with non-fatal disease. At an adult population-wide prevalence of 10%, diabetes was estimated to account for 11% (10-12%) of vascular deaths. Fasting blood glucose concentration was non-linearly related to vascular risk, with no significant associations between 3.90 mmol/L and 5.59 mmol/L. Compared with fasting blood glucose concentrations of 3.90-5.59 mmol/L, HRs for coronary heart disease were: 1.07 (0.97-1.18) for lower than 3.90 mmol/L; 1.11 (1.04-1.18) for 5.60-6-09 mmol/L; and 1.17 (1.08-1.26) for 6.10-6.99 mmol/L. In people without a history of diabetes, information about fasting blood glucose concentration or impaired fasting glucose status did not significantly improve metrics of vascular disease prediction when added to information about several conventional risk factors. Interpretation Diabetes confers about a two-fold excess risk for a wide range of vascular diseases, independently from other conventional risk factors. In people without diabetes, fasting blood glucose concentration is modestly and nonlinearly associated with risk of vascular disease. Show less
Polisecki, E.; Peter, I.; Simon, J.S.; Hegele, R.A.; Robertson, M.; Ford, I.; ... ; Prospective Study Pravastatin Elde 2010
Niemann-Pick C1-like 1 protein (NPC1L1) plays a critical role in intestinal cholesterol absorption. Our objective was to examine whether five variants (-133A>G, -18A>C, L272L, V1296V, and U3... Show moreNiemann-Pick C1-like 1 protein (NPC1L1) plays a critical role in intestinal cholesterol absorption. Our objective was to examine whether five variants (-133A>G, -18A>C, L272L, V1296V, and U3_28650A> G) at the NPC1L1 gene have effects on lipid levels, prevalence, and incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and lipid-lowering response to pravastatin. We studied 5,804 elderly participants from the PROSPER study, who were randomized to pravastatin 40 mg/day or placebo and were followed on average for 3.2 years. In the adjusted gender-pooled analyses, homozygous carriers of the minor alleles at four NPC1L1 sites (-18A>C, L272L, V1296V, and U3_28650A> G, minor allele frequencies 0.15-0.33) had 2-8% higher LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels at baseline than homozygous carriers of the common alleles (P < 0.05). Homozygotes for the rare alleles also had a significant increase in the risk of CHD events on trial ( range of hazard ratios 1.50-1.67; P < 0.02), regardless of the treatment regimen. The -133 A>G polymorphism and not other variants was associated with 6 month LDL-C lowering (P = 0.02). Our data indicate that variation in the NPC1L1 gene is associated with plasma total and LDL-C levels and CHD risk.-Polisecki, E., I. Peter, J. S. Simon, R. A. Hegele, M. Robertson, I. Ford, J. Shepherd, C. Packard, J. W. Jukema, A. J. M. DeCraen, R. G. J. Westendorp, B. M. Buckley, and E. J. Schaefer. Genetic variation at the NPC1L1 gene locus, plasma lipoproteins, and heart disease risk in the elderly. J. Lipid Res. 2010. 51: 1201-1207. Show less
Caslake, M.J.; Packard, C.J.; Robertson, M.; Cooney, J.; Nelson, J.J.; Ford, I.; ... ; PROSPER Study Grp 2010
Objective: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)) is an inflammatory biomarker that circulates mainly bound to LDL. We evaluated the association of Lp-PLA(2) with vascular events in... Show moreObjective: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) (Lp-PLA(2)) is an inflammatory biomarker that circulates mainly bound to LDL. We evaluated the association of Lp-PLA(2) with vascular events in the elderly where the importance of LDL is diminished as a risk factor for coronary disease. Methods: Mass and activity of Lp-PLA(2) were related to risk over 3.2 years for vascular events (definite or suspected death from CHD, non-fatal MI, fatal or non-fatal stroke) in the 2804 men and 3000 women age 70-82 years in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly (PROSPER). Results: Lp-PLA(2) showed a moderate, positive association with risk of a vascular event with hazard ratios of 1.25 (confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.54) for mass and 1.39 (CI 1.14-1.70) for activity for top versus bottom quartile. Risk associations were attenuated when classical risk factors, lipids and in. ammatory markers - C-reactive protein and white cell count - were included in the models. Lp-PLA(2) was unrelated to stroke risk. Inclusion of all three in. ammatory markers in multivariate models negated the association of HDL cholesterol with risk (hazard ratio 0.98; CI 0.88-1.10) and increased prediction of coronary events; the C statistic rose from 63.2% to 64.4% (P < 0.001). Conclusion: In elderly people Lp-PLA(2), alongside other inflammatory indices, is a potential biomarker for vascular events, particularly CHD. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. Show less
Background Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge... Show moreBackground Whether triglyceride-mediated pathways are causally relevant to coronary heart disease is uncertain. We studied a genetic variant that regulates triglyceride concentration to help judge likelihood of causality. Methods We assessed the -1131T>C (rs662799) promoter polymorphism of the apolipoprotein A5 (APOA5) gene in relation to triglyceride concentration, several other risk factors, and risk of coronary heart disease. We compared disease risk for genetically-raised triglyceride concentration (20 842 patients with coronary heart disease, 35 206 controls) with that recorded for equivalent differences in circulating triglyceride concentration in prospective studies (302 430 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease; 12 785 incident cases of coronary heart disease during 2.79 million person-years at risk). We analysed -1131T>C in 1795 people without a history of cardiovascular disease who had information about lipoprotein concentration and diameter obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Findings The minor allele frequency of -1131T>C was 8% (95% CI 7-9). -1131T>C was not significantly associated with several non-lipid risk factors or LDL cholesterol, and it was modestly associated with lower HDL cholesterol (mean difference per C allele 3.5% [95% CI 2.6-4.6]; 0.053 mmol/L [0.039-0.068]), lower apolipoprotein AI (1.3% [0.3-2.3]; 0.023 g/L [0.005-0.041]), and higher apolipoprotein B (3.2% [1.3-5.1]; 0.027 g/L [0.011-0.043]). By contrast, for every C allele inherited, mean triglyceride concentration was 16.0% (95% CI 12.9-18.7), or 0.25 mmol/L (0.20-0.29), higher (p=4.4x10(-24)). The odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.18 (95% CI 1.11-1.26; p=2.6x10(-7)) per C allele, which was concordant with the hazard ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 1.08-1.12) per 16% higher triglyceride concentration recorded in prospective studies. -1131T>C was significantly associated with higher VLDL particle concentration (mean difference per C allele 12.2 nmol/L [95% CI 7.7-16.7]; p=9.3x10(-8)) and smaller HDL particle size (0.14 nm [0.08-0.20]; p=7.0x10(-5)), factors that could mediate the effects of triglyceride. Interpretation These data are consistent with a causal association between triglyceride-mediated pathways and coronary heart disease. Show less
