BackgroundGuidelines and textbooks assert that tachycardia is an early and reliable sign of hypotension, and an increased heart rate (HR) is believed to be an early warning sign for the development... Show moreBackgroundGuidelines and textbooks assert that tachycardia is an early and reliable sign of hypotension, and an increased heart rate (HR) is believed to be an early warning sign for the development of shock, although this response may change by aging, pain, and stress.ObjectiveTo assess the unadjusted and adjusted associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and HR in emergency department (ED) patients of different age categories (18–50 years; 50–80 years; > 80 years).MethodsA multicenter cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) including all ED patients ≥ 18 years from three hospitals in whom HR and SBP were registered at arrival to the ED. Findings were validated in a Danish cohort including ED patients. In addition, a separate cohort was used including ED patients with a suspected infection who were hospitalized from whom measurement of SBP and HR were available prior to, during, and after ED treatment. Associations between SBP and HR were visualized and quantified with scatterplots and regression coefficients (95% confidence interval [CI]).ResultsA total of 81,750 ED patients were included from the NEED, and a total of 2358 patients with a suspected infection. No associations were found between SBP and HR in any age category (18–50 years: −0.03 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI −0.13–0.07, 51–80 years: −0.43 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI −0.38 to −0.50, > 80 years: −0.61 beats/min/10 mm Hg, 95% CI −0.53 to −0.71), nor in different subgroups of ED patient. No increase in HR existed with a decreasing SBP during ED treatment in ED patients with a suspected infection.ConclusionNo association between SBP and HR existed in ED patients of any age category, nor in ED patients who were hospitalized with a suspected infection, even during and after ED treatment. Emergency physicians may be misled by traditional concepts about HR disturbances because tachycardia may be absent in hypotension. Show less
Candel, B.G.J.; Nissen, S.K.; Nickel, C.H.; Raven, W.; Thijssen, W.; Gaakeer, M.I.; ... ; Groot, B. de 2023
Objectives: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in... Show moreObjectives: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International Early Warning Score (IEWS) based on a recalibrated National Early warning Score (NEWS) model including age and sex and evaluate its performance independently at arrival to the ED in three age categories (18–65, 66–80, > 80 yr).Design: International multicenter cohort study.Setting: Data was used from three Dutch EDs. External validation was performed in two EDs in Denmark.Patients: All consecutive ED patients greater than or equal to 18 years in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) with at least two registered vital signs were included, resulting in 95,553 patients. For external validation, 14,809 patients were included from a Danish Multicenter Cohort (DMC).Measurements and Main Results: Model performance to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curves and summary statistics, reclassification, and clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.4% (n = 2,314) in the NEED and 2.5% (n = 365) in the DMC. Overall, the IEWS performed significantly better than NEWS with an area under the receiving operating characteristic of 0.89 (95% CIs, 0.89–0.90) versus 0.82 (0.82–0.83) in the NEED and 0.87 (0.85–0.88) versus 0.82 (0.80–0.84) at external validation. Calibration for NEWS predictions underestimated risk in older patients and overestimated risk in the youngest, while calibration improved for IEWS with a substantial reclassification of patients from low to high risk and a standardized net benefit of 5–15% in the relevant risk range for all age categories.Conclusions: The IEWS substantially improves in-hospital mortality prediction for all ED patients greater than or equal to18 years. Show less
Candel, B.G.J.; Raven, W.; Lameijer, H.; Thijssen, W.A.M.H.; Temorshuizen, F.; Boerma, C.; ... ; Groot, B. de 2022
Background Treatment and the clinical course during Emergency Department (ED) stay before Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission may affect predicted mortality risk calculated by the Acute Physiology... Show moreBackground Treatment and the clinical course during Emergency Department (ED) stay before Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission may affect predicted mortality risk calculated by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE)-IV, causing lead-time bias. As a result, comparing standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) among hospitals may be difficult if they differ in the location where initial stabilization takes place. The aim of this study was to assess to what extent predicted mortality risk would be affected if the APACHE-IV score was recalculated with the initial physiological variables from the ED. Secondly, to evaluate whether ED Length of Stay (LOS) was associated with a change (delta) in these APACHE-IV scores. Methods An observational multicenter cohort study including ICU patients admitted from the ED. Data from two Dutch quality registries were linked: the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) and the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) registry. The ICU APACHE-IV, predicted mortality, and SMR based on data of the first 24 h of ICU admission were compared with an ED APACHE-IV model, using the most deviating physiological variables from the ED or ICU. Results A total of 1398 patients were included. The predicted mortality from the ICU APACHE-IV (median 0.10; IQR 0.03-0.30) was significantly lower compared to the ED APACHE-IV model (median 0.13; 0.04-0.36; p < 0.01). The SMR changed from 0.63 (95%CI 0.54-0.72) to 0.55 (95%CI 0.47-0.63) based on ED APACHE-IV. Predicted mortality risk changed more than 5% in 321 (23.2%) patients by using the ED APACHE-IV. ED LOS > 3.9 h was associated with a slight increase in delta APACHE-IV of 1.6 (95% CI 0.4-2.8) compared to ED LOS < 1.7 h. Conclusion Predicted mortality risks and SMRs calculated by the APACHE IV scores are not directly comparable in patients admitted from the ED if hospitals differ in their policy to stabilize patients in the ED before ICU admission. Future research should focus on developing models to adjust for these differences. Show less
Raven, W.; Hoven, E.M.P. van den; Gaakeer, M.I.; Avest, E. ter; Sir, O.; Lameijer, H.; ... ; Groot, B. de 2022
Background and importance Although aging societies in Western Europe use presenting complaints (PCs) in emergency departments (EDs) triage systems to determine the urgency and severity of the care... Show moreBackground and importance Although aging societies in Western Europe use presenting complaints (PCs) in emergency departments (EDs) triage systems to determine the urgency and severity of the care demand, it is unclear whether their prognostic value is age-dependent.Objective To assess the frequency and association of PCs with hospitalization and mortality across age categories.Methods An observational multicenter study using all consecutive visits of three EDs in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database. Patients were stratified by age category (0-18; 19-50; 51-65; 66-80; >80 years), in which the association between PCs and case-mix adjusted hospitalization and mortality was studied using multivariable logistic regression analysis (adjusting for demographics, hospital, disease severity, comorbidity and other PCs)Results We included 172 104 ED-visits. The most frequent PCs were 'extremity problems' [range across age categories (13.5-40.8%)], 'feeling unwell' (9.5-23.4%), 'abdominal pain' (6.0-13.9%), 'dyspnea' (4.5-13.3%) and 'chest pain' (0.6-10.7%). For most PCs, the observed and the case-mix-adjusted odds for hospitalization and mortality increased the higher the age category. The most common PCs with the highest adjusted odds ratios (AORs, 95% CI) for hospitalization were 'diarrhea and vomiting' [2.30 (2.02-2.62)] and 'feeling unwell' [1.60 (1.48-1.73)]. Low hospitalization risk was found for 'chest pain' [0.58 (0.53-0.63)] and `palpitations' [0.64 (0.58-0.71)].Conclusions Frequency of PCs in ED patients varies with age, but the same PCs occur in all age categories. For most PCs, (case-mix adjusted) hospitalization and mortality vary across age categories. 'Chest pain' and 'palpitations,' usually triaged 'very urgent', carry a low risk for hospitalization and mortality. European Journal of Emergency Medicine 29: 33-41 Copyright (c) 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. Show less
Candel, B.G.J.; Dap, S.; Raven, W.; Lameijer, H.; Gaakeer, M.I.; Jonge, E. de; Groot, B. de 2022
Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate whether sex differences exist in disease presentations, disease severity and (case-mix adjusted) outcomes in the Emergency Department (ED)... Show moreObjective: The aim of this study was to investigate whether sex differences exist in disease presentations, disease severity and (case-mix adjusted) outcomes in the Emergency Department (ED).Methods: Observational multicenter cohort study using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED), including patients >= 18 years of three Dutch EDs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to study the associations between sex and outcome measures in-hospital mortality and Intensive Care Unit/Medium Care Unit (ICU/MCU) admission in ED patients and in subgroups triage categories and presenting complaints.Results: Of 148,825 patients, 72,554 (48.8%) were females. Patient characteristics at ED presentation and diagnoses (such as pneumonia, cerebral infarction, and fractures) were comparable between sexes at ED presentation. In-hospital mortality was 2.2% in males and 1.7% in females. ICU/MCU admission was 4.7% in males and 3.1% in females. Males had higher unadjusted (OR 1.34(1.25-1.45)) and adjusted (AOR 1.34(1.24-1.46)) risks for mortality, and unadjusted (OR 1.54(1.46-1.63)) and adjusted (AOR 1.46(1.37-1.56)) risks for ICU/MCU admission. Males had higher adjusted mortality and ICU/MCU admission for all triage categories, and with almost all presenting complaints except for headache.Conclusions: Although patient characteristics at ED presentation for both sexes are comparable, males are at higher unadjusted and adjusted risk for adverse outcomes. Males have higher risks in all triage categories and with almost all presenting complaints. Future studies should investigate reasons for higher risk in male ED patients. Show less
Candel, B.G.J.; Ingen, I.B. van; Doormalen, I.P.H. van; Raven, W.; Mignot-Evers, L.A.A.; Jonge, E. de; Groot, B. de 2021
Purpose To assess how often baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) could be retrieved from the Electronic Health Record (EHR) in older Emergency Department (ED) patients. Second, to assess whether... Show morePurpose To assess how often baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) could be retrieved from the Electronic Health Record (EHR) in older Emergency Department (ED) patients. Second, to assess whether the difference between baseline SBP and initial SBP in the ED (Delta SBP) was associated with 30-day mortality. Methods A multicenter hypothesis-generating cohort study including patients >= 70 years. EHRs were searched for baseline SBPs. The association between Delta SBP and 30-day mortality was investigated. Results Baseline SBP was found in 220 out of 300 patients (73.3%; 95%CI 68.1-78.0%). In 72 patients with normal initial SBPs (133-166 mmHg) in the ED, fifteen (20.8%) had a negative Delta SBP with 20.0% mortality. A negative Delta SBP was associated with 30-day mortality (AHR 4.7; 1.7-12.7). Conclusion Baseline SBPs are often available in older ED patients. The Delta SBP has prognostic value and could be used as an extra variable to recognize hypotension in older ED patients. Future studies should clarify whether the Delta SBP improves risk stratification in the ED.Key summary pointsAim To investigate whether a baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP) in older Emergency Department (ED) patients of >= 70 years has prognostic value, when compared with the initial SBP at presentation in the ED (= Delta SBP). Findings A baseline SBP could be retrieved from the Electronic Health Record for most older ED patients (73.3%). A negative Delta SBP was associated with 30-day mortality. In 20% of the patients with a normal initial SBP in the ED, the Delta SBP was negative, with a high mortality rate. Message A baseline SBP value could be retrieved from the Electronic Health Record in most hospitalized ED patients >= 70 years. In addition, the 21% with a normal SBP at ED presentation had a negative Delta SBP and these patients had an increased risk for 30-day mortality. As a result, Delta SBP may contribute to improved risk stratification and may help to recognize hypotension in older patients. Show less
Hond, A. de; Raven, W.; Kant, I.; Schinkelshoek, L.; Steyerberg, E.; Groot, B. de 2021
Objective: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models... Show moreObjective: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models predicting the hospitalization of ED patients and conventional regression techniques at three points in time after ED registration.Methods: We analyzed consecutive ED patients of three hospitals using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). We developed prediction models for hospitalization using an increasing number of data available at triage, similar to 30 min (including vital signs) and similar to 2 h (including laboratory tests) after ED registration, using ML (random forest, gradient boosted decision trees, deep neural networks) and multivariable logistic regression analysis (including spline transformations for continuous predictors). Demographics, urgency, presenting complaints, disease severity and proxies for comorbidity, and complexity were used as covariates. We compared the performance using the area under the ROC curve in independent validation sets from each hospital.Results: We included 172,104 ED patients of whom 66,782 (39 %) were hospitalized. The AUC of the multi-variable logistic regression model was 0.82 (0.78-0.86) at triage, 0.84 (0.81-0.86) at similar to 30 min and 0.83 (0.75-0.92) after similar to 2 h. The best performing ML model over time was the gradient boosted decision trees model with an AUC of 0.84 (0.77-0.88) at triage, 0.86 (0.82-0.89) at similar to 30 min and 0.86 (0.74-0.93) after similar to 2 h.Conclusions: Our study showed that machine learning models had an excellent but similar predictive performance as the logistic regression model for predicting hospital admission. In comparison to the 30-min model, the 2-h model did not show a performance improvement. After further validation, these prediction models could support management decisions by real-time feedback to medical personal. Show less
