Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk... Show moreBackground To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
Teumer, A.; Li, Y.; Ghasemi, S.; Prins, B.P.; Wuttke, M.; Hermle, T.; ... ; Kottgen, A. 2019
Increased levels of the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) are associated with higher risk of kidney disease progression and cardiovascular events, but underlying mechanisms are... Show moreIncreased levels of the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) are associated with higher risk of kidney disease progression and cardiovascular events, but underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Here, we conduct trans-ethnic (n = 564,257) and European-ancestry specific meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies of UACR, including ancestry- and diabetes-specific analyses, and identify 68 UACR-associated loci. Genetic correlation analyses and risk score associations in an independent electronic medical records database (n =192,868) reveal connections with proteinuria, hyperlipidemia, gout, and hypertension. Fine-mapping and trans-Omics analyses with gene expression in 47 tissues and plasma protein levels implicate genes potentially operating through differential expression in kidney (including TGFB1, MUC1, PRKCI, and OAF), and allow coupling of UACR associations to altered plasma OAF concentrations. Knockdown of OAF and PRKCI orthologs in Drosophila nephrocytes reduces albumin endocytosis. Silencing fly PRKCI further impairs slit diaphragm formation. These results generate a priority list of genes and pathways for translational research to reduce albuminuria. Show less
Huang, T.; Wang, T.A.; Zheng, Y.; Ellervik, C.; Li, X.; Gao, M.; ... ; BIRTH-GENE BIG StudyWorking Grp 2019
IMPORTANCE Observational studies have shown associations of birth weight with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and glycemic traits, but it remains unclear whether these associations represent causal... Show moreIMPORTANCE Observational studies have shown associations of birth weight with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and glycemic traits, but it remains unclear whether these associations represent causal associations.OBJECTIVE To test the association of birth weight with T2D and glycemic traits using a mendelian randomization analysis.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This mendelian randomization study used a genetic risk score for birth weight that was constructed with 7 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The associations of this score with birth weight and T2D were tested in a mendelian randomization analysis using study-level data. The association of birth weight with T2D was tested using both study-level data (7 single-nucleotide polymorphisms were used as an instrumental variable) and summary-level data from the consortia (43 single-nucleotide polymorphismswere used as an instrumental variable). Data from 180 056 participants from 49 studies were included.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Type 2 diabetes and glycemic traits.RESULTS This mendelian randomization analysis included 49 studies with 41 155 patients with T2D and 80 008 control participants from study-level data and 34 840 patients with T2D and 114 981 control participants from summary-level data. Study-level data showed that a 1-SD decrease in birth weight due to the genetic risk score was associated with higher risk of T2D among all participants (odds ratio [OR], 2.10; 95% CI, 1.69-2.61; P=4.03 x 10-5), among European participants (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.42-2.71; P=.04), and among East Asian participants (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.18-1.62; P=.04). Similar results were observed from summary-level analyses. In addition, each 1-SD lower birth weight was associated with 0.189 SD higher fasting glucose concentration (beta=0.189; SE=0.060; P=.002), but not with fasting insulin, 2-hour glucose, or hemoglobin A1c concentration.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this study, a genetic predisposition to lower birth weight was associated with increased risk of T2D and higher fasting glucose concentration, suggesting genetic effects on retarded fetal growth and increased diabetes risk that either are independent of each other or operate through alterations of integrated biological mechanisms. Show less
Elevated blood pressure (BP), a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, is influenced by both genetic and lifestyle factors. Cigarette smoking is one such lifestyle factor. Across five... Show moreElevated blood pressure (BP), a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, is influenced by both genetic and lifestyle factors. Cigarette smoking is one such lifestyle factor. Across five ancestries, we performed a genome-wide gene-smoking interaction study of mean arterial pressure (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP) in 129 913 individuals in stage 1 and follow-up analysis in 480 178 additional individuals in stage 2. We report here 136 loci significantly associated with MAP and/or PP. Of these, 61 were previously published through main-effect analysis of BP traits, 37 were recently reported by us for systolic BP and/or diastolic BP through gene-smoking interaction analysis and 38 were newly identified (P < 5 x 10(-8), false discovery rate < 0.05). We also identified nine new signals near known loci. Of the 136 loci, 8 showed significant interaction with smoking status. They include CSMD1 previously reported for insulin resistance and BP in the spontaneously hypertensive rats. Many of the 38 new loci show biologic plausibility for a role in BP regulation. SLC26A7 encodes a chloride/bicarbonate exchanger expressed in the renal outer medullary collecting duct. AVPR1A is widely expressed, including in vascular smooth muscle cells, kidney, myocardium and brain. FHAD1 is a long non-coding RNA overexpressed in heart failure. TMEM51 was associated with contractile function in cardiomyocytes. CASP9 plays a central role in cardiomyocyte apoptosis. Identified only in African ancestry were 30 novel loci. Our findings highlight the value of multi-ancestry investigations, particularly in studies of interaction with lifestyle factors, where genomic and lifestyle differences may contribute to novel findings. Show less
A person's lipid profile is influenced by genetic variants and alcohol consumption, but the contribution of interactions between these exposures has not been studied. We therefore incorporated gene... Show moreA person's lipid profile is influenced by genetic variants and alcohol consumption, but the contribution of interactions between these exposures has not been studied. We therefore incorporated gene-alcohol interactions into a multiancestry genome-wide association study of levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides. We included 45 studies in stage 1 (genome-wide discovery) and 66 studies in stage 2 (focused follow-up), for a total of 394,584 individuals from 5 ancestry groups. Analyses covered the period July 2014-November 2017. Genetic main effects and interaction effects were jointly assessed by means of a 2-degrees-of-freedom (df) test, and a 1-df test was used to assess the interaction effects alone. Variants at 495 loci were at least suggestively associated (P < 1 x 10(-6)) with lipid levels in stage 1 and were evaluated in stage 2, followed by combined analyses of stage 1 and stage 2. In the combined analysis of stages 1 and 2, a total of 147 independent loci were associated with lipid levels at P < 5 x 10(-8) using 2-df tests, of which 18 were novel. No genome-wide-significant associations were found testing the interaction effect alone. The novel loci included several genes (proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 5 (PCSK5), vascular endothelial growth factor B (VEGFB), and apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide 1 (APOBEC1) complementation factor (A1CF)) that have a putative role in lipid metabolism on the basis of existing evidence from cellular and experimental models. Show less
BackgroundFibrinogen is an essential hemostatic factor and cardiovascular disease risk factor. Early attempts at evaluating the causal effect of fibrinogen on coronary heart disease (CHD) and... Show moreBackgroundFibrinogen is an essential hemostatic factor and cardiovascular disease risk factor. Early attempts at evaluating the causal effect of fibrinogen on coronary heart disease (CHD) and myocardial infraction (MI) using Mendelian randomization (MR) used single variant approaches, and did not take advantage of recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) or multi-variant, pleiotropy robust MR methodologies.Methods and findingsWe evaluated evidence for a causal effect of fibrinogen on both CHD and MI using MR. We used both an allele score approach and pleiotropy robust MR models. The allele score was composed of 38 fibrinogen-associated variants from recent GWAS. Initial analyses using the allele score used a meta-analysis of 11 European-ancestry prospective cohorts, free of CHD and MI at baseline, to examine incidence CHD and MI. We also applied 2 sample MR methods with data from a prevalent CHD and MI GWAS. Results are given in terms of the hazard ratio (HR) or odds ratio (OR), depending on the study design, and associated 95% confidence interval (CI).In single variant analyses no causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD or MI was observed. In multi-variant analyses using incidence CHD cases and the allele score approach, the estimated causal effect (HR) of a 1 g/L higher fibrinogen concentration was 1.62 (CI = 1.12, 2.36) when using incident cases and the allele score approach. In 2 sample MR analyses that accounted for pleiotropy, the causal estimate (OR) was reduced to 1.18 (CI = 0.98, 1.42) and 1.09 (CI = 0.89, 1.33) in the 2 most precise (smallest CI) models, out of 4 models evaluated. In the 2 sample MR analyses for MI, there was only very weak evidence of a causal effect in only 1 out of 4 models.ConclusionsA small causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD is observed using multi-variant MR approaches which account for pleiotropy, but not single variant MR approaches. Taken together, results indicate that even with large sample sizes and multi-variant approaches MR analyses still cannot exclude the null when estimating the causal effect of fibrinogen on CHD, but that any potential causal effect is likely to be much smaller than observed in epidemiological studies. Show less
Davies, G.; Lam, M.; Harris, S.E.; Trampush, J.W.; Luciano, M.; Hill, W.D.; ... ; Deary, I.J. 2019
Aims There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention... Show moreAims There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after 'recalibration', a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at 'high' 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29 39% of individuals aged >= 40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22-24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44 51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37-39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need. Show less
IMPORTANCE Increased free thyroxine (FT4) and decreased thyrotropin are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in observational studies, but direct involvement is unclear... Show moreIMPORTANCE Increased free thyroxine (FT4) and decreased thyrotropin are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in observational studies, but direct involvement is unclear.OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential direct involvement of thyroid traits on AF.DESIGN, SETTING. AND PARTICIPANTS Study-level mendelian randomization (MR) included 11 studies, and summary-level MR included 55 114 AF cases and 482 295 referents, all of European ancestry.EXPOSURES Genomewide significant variants were used as instruments for standardized FT4 and thyrotropin levels within the reference range, standardized triiodothyronine (FT3):FT4 ratio, hypothyroidism, standardized thyroid peroxidase antibody levels, and hyperthyroidism. Mendelian randomization used genetic risk scores in study-level analysis or individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms in 2-sample MR for the summary-level data.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Prevalent and incident AF.RESULTS The study-level analysis included 7679 individuals with AF and 49 233 referents (mean age [standard error], 62 [3] years; 15 859 men [29.7%]). In study-level random-effects meta-analysis, the pooled hazard ratio of FT4 levels (nanograms per deciliter) for incident AF was 1.55 (95% CI, 1.09-2.20; P = .02; I-2= 76%) and the pooled odds ratio (OR) for prevalent AF was 2.80 (95% CI, 1.41-5.54; P = .003; I-2 = 64%) in multivariable-adjusted analyses. The FT4 genetic risk score was associated with an increase in FT(4 )by 0.082 SD (standard error, 0.007; P < .001) but not with incident AF (risk ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.62-1.14; P = .27) or prevalent AF (OR, 132; 95% CI, 0.64-2.73; P = .46). Similarly, in summary-level inverse-variance weighted random-effects MR, gene-based FT4 within the reference range was not associated with AF (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.89-1.14; P = .88). However, gene-based increased FT3:FT(4 )ratio, increased thyrotropin within the reference range, and hypothyroidism were associated with AF with inverse-variance weighted random-effects OR of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.08-1.63; P = .006), 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.92; P < .001), and 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.99; P = .009), respectively, and robust to tests of horizontal pleiotropy. However, the subset of hypothyroidism single-nucleotide polymorphisms involved in autoimmunity and thyroid peroxidase antibodies levels were not associated with AF. Gene-based hyperthyroidism was associated with AF with MR-Egger OR of 1.31(95% CI, 1.05-1.63; P = .02) with evidence of horizontal pleiotropy (P = .045).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Genetically increased FT3:FT(4 )ratio and hyperthyroidism, but not FT4 within the reference range, were associated with increased AF, and increased thyrotropin within the reference range and hypothyroidism were associated with decreased AF, supporting a pathway involving the pituitary-thyroid-cardiac axis. Show less
Giri, A.; Hellwege, J.N.; Keaton, J.M.; Park, J.; Qiu, C.X.; Warren, H.R.; ... ; Million Vet Program 2019
