Objectives: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in... Show moreObjectives: Early Warning Scores (EWSs) have a great potential to assist clinical decision-making in the emergency department (ED). However, many EWS contain methodological weaknesses in development and validation and have poor predictive performance in older patients. The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate an International Early Warning Score (IEWS) based on a recalibrated National Early warning Score (NEWS) model including age and sex and evaluate its performance independently at arrival to the ED in three age categories (18–65, 66–80, > 80 yr).Design: International multicenter cohort study.Setting: Data was used from three Dutch EDs. External validation was performed in two EDs in Denmark.Patients: All consecutive ED patients greater than or equal to 18 years in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database (NEED) with at least two registered vital signs were included, resulting in 95,553 patients. For external validation, 14,809 patients were included from a Danish Multicenter Cohort (DMC).Measurements and Main Results: Model performance to predict in-hospital mortality was evaluated by discrimination, calibration curves and summary statistics, reclassification, and clinical usefulness by decision curve analysis. In-hospital mortality rate was 2.4% (n = 2,314) in the NEED and 2.5% (n = 365) in the DMC. Overall, the IEWS performed significantly better than NEWS with an area under the receiving operating characteristic of 0.89 (95% CIs, 0.89–0.90) versus 0.82 (0.82–0.83) in the NEED and 0.87 (0.85–0.88) versus 0.82 (0.80–0.84) at external validation. Calibration for NEWS predictions underestimated risk in older patients and overestimated risk in the youngest, while calibration improved for IEWS with a substantial reclassification of patients from low to high risk and a standardized net benefit of 5–15% in the relevant risk range for all age categories.Conclusions: The IEWS substantially improves in-hospital mortality prediction for all ED patients greater than or equal to18 years. Show less
Nissen, S.K.; Candel, B.G.J.; Nickel, C.H.; Jonge, E. de; Ryg, J.; Bogh, S.B.; ... ; Brabrand, M. 2022
Study objective: To investigate how age affects the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at arrival to the emergency department (ED) regarding inhospital mortality and... Show moreStudy objective: To investigate how age affects the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) at arrival to the emergency department (ED) regarding inhospital mortality and intensive care admission.Methods: International multicenter retrospective cohorts from 2 Danish and 3 Dutch ED. Development cohort: 14,809 Danish patients aged >= 18 years with at least systolic blood pressure or pulse measured from the Danish Multicenter Cohort. External validation cohort: 50,448 Dutch patients aged >18 years with all vital signs measured from the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). Multivariable logistic regression was used for model building. Performance was evaluated overall and within age categories: 18 to 64 years, 65 to 80 years, and more than 80 years.Results: In the Danish Multicenter Cohort, a total of 2.5% died inhospital, and 2.8% were admitted to the ICU, compared with 2.8% and 1.6%, respectively, in the NEED. Age did not add information for the prediction of intensive care admission but was the strongest predictor for inhospital mortality. For NEWS alone, severe underestimation of risk was observed for persons above 80 while overall Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC) was 0.82 (confidence interval [CI] 0.80 to 0.84) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.75 (CI 0.75 to 0.77) in the NEED. When combining NEWS with age, underestimation of risks was eliminated for persons above 80, and overall AUROC increased significantly to 0.86 (CI 0.85 to 0.88) in the Danish Multicenter Cohort versus 0.82 (CI 0.81 to 0.83) in the NEED.Conclusion: Combining NEWS with age improved the prediction performance regarding inhospital mortality, mostly for persons aged above 80, and can potentially improve decision policies at arrival to EDs. Show less
Raven, W.; Hoven, E.M.P. van den; Gaakeer, M.I.; Avest, E. ter; Sir, O.; Lameijer, H.; ... ; Groot, B. de 2022
Background and importance Although aging societies in Western Europe use presenting complaints (PCs) in emergency departments (EDs) triage systems to determine the urgency and severity of the care... Show moreBackground and importance Although aging societies in Western Europe use presenting complaints (PCs) in emergency departments (EDs) triage systems to determine the urgency and severity of the care demand, it is unclear whether their prognostic value is age-dependent.Objective To assess the frequency and association of PCs with hospitalization and mortality across age categories.Methods An observational multicenter study using all consecutive visits of three EDs in the Netherlands Emergency department Evaluation Database. Patients were stratified by age category (0-18; 19-50; 51-65; 66-80; >80 years), in which the association between PCs and case-mix adjusted hospitalization and mortality was studied using multivariable logistic regression analysis (adjusting for demographics, hospital, disease severity, comorbidity and other PCs)Results We included 172 104 ED-visits. The most frequent PCs were 'extremity problems' [range across age categories (13.5-40.8%)], 'feeling unwell' (9.5-23.4%), 'abdominal pain' (6.0-13.9%), 'dyspnea' (4.5-13.3%) and 'chest pain' (0.6-10.7%). For most PCs, the observed and the case-mix-adjusted odds for hospitalization and mortality increased the higher the age category. The most common PCs with the highest adjusted odds ratios (AORs, 95% CI) for hospitalization were 'diarrhea and vomiting' [2.30 (2.02-2.62)] and 'feeling unwell' [1.60 (1.48-1.73)]. Low hospitalization risk was found for 'chest pain' [0.58 (0.53-0.63)] and `palpitations' [0.64 (0.58-0.71)].Conclusions Frequency of PCs in ED patients varies with age, but the same PCs occur in all age categories. For most PCs, (case-mix adjusted) hospitalization and mortality vary across age categories. 'Chest pain' and 'palpitations,' usually triaged 'very urgent', carry a low risk for hospitalization and mortality. European Journal of Emergency Medicine 29: 33-41 Copyright (c) 2021 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. Show less
Purpose Despite the rapidly expanding knowledge in the field of Geriatric Emergency Medicine in Europe, widespread implementation of change is still lacking. Many opportunities in everyday clinical... Show morePurpose Despite the rapidly expanding knowledge in the field of Geriatric Emergency Medicine in Europe, widespread implementation of change is still lacking. Many opportunities in everyday clinical care are missed to improve care for this susceptible and growing patient group. The aim was to develop expert clinical recommendations on Geriatric Emergency Medicine to be disseminated across Europe.Methods A group of multi-disciplinary experts in the field of Geriatric Emergency Medicine in Europe was assembled. Using a modified Delphi procedure, a prioritized list of topics related to Geriatric Emergency Medicine was created. Next, a multi-disciplinary group of nurses, geriatricians and emergency physicians performed a review of recent guidelines and literature to create recommendations. These recommendations were voted upon by a group of experts and placed on visually attractive posters. The expert group identified the following eight subject areas to develop expert recommendations on: Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment in the Emergency Department (ED), age/frailty adjusted risk stratification, delirium and cognitive impairment, medication reviews in the ED for older adults, family involvement, ED environment, silver trauma, end of life care in the acute setting.Results Eight posters with expert clinical recommendations on the most important topics in Geriatric Emergency Medicine are now available through https://posters.geriemeurope.eu/.Conclusion Expert clinical recommendations for Geriatric Emergency Medicine may help to improve care for older patients in the Emergency Department and are ready for dissemination across Europe. Show less
Purpose Older people often present to the Emergency Department with nonspecific complaints. We aimed (1) to examine characteristics of older patients presenting to the ED triaged with the... Show morePurpose Older people often present to the Emergency Department with nonspecific complaints. We aimed (1) to examine characteristics of older patients presenting to the ED triaged with the presentational flowchart 'unwell adult' of the Manchester triage system (MTS) and (2) to assess the different mortality and admission rates among triage categories. Methods Retrospective cohort study including all consecutive patients aged 70 years and older who visited the ED of a tertiary care hospital in the Netherlands during a 1-year period. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes were 7-day mortality, hospital admission and ED length of stay. Results 4255 patients were included in this study. Mean age was 78 years (IQR 73.9-83.4) and 2098 were male (49.3%). The MTS presentational flowchart 'unwell adult' was the most commonly used flowchart (n = 815, 19.3%). After the infrequent flowchart 'major trauma' (n = 9, 13.8%), 'unwell adult' had the highest 30-day mortality (n = 88, 10.8%). When compared to all other flowcharts, patients assigned as 'unwell adult' have significantly higher 30-day mortality rates (OR 1.89 (95%CI 1.46-2.46), p = < 0.001), also when adjusted for age, gender and triage priority (OR 1.75 (95%CI 1.32-2.31), p = < 0.001). Patients from the 'unwell adult' flowchart had the highest hospital admission rate (n = 540, 66.3%), and had among the longest ED length of stay. Conclusions Older ED patients are most commonly assigned the presentational flowchart 'unwell adult' when using the MTS. Patients in this category have the highest non-trauma mortality and highest hospital admission rates when compared to other presenting complaints.Key summary pointsAim Examine characteristics of older patients presenting to the ED triaged with the presentational flowchart 'unwell adult' of the Manchester triage system (MTS) and to assess the different mortality and admission rates among triage categories. Findings Older patients assigned to the 'unwell' flowchart have the highest non-trauma mortality rate, independent of urgency category, and highest admission rates of all presenting complaints. Surprisingly, mortality was also observed in the lowest triage categories. Message Patients in the category 'unwell' have the highest non-trauma 30-day mortality and highest hospital admission rates when compared to other presenting complaints, indicating that the nonspecific disease presentation "unwell" is a serious medical condition. Show less
Emergency Departments (EDs) are increasingly seeing more seriously unwell older people living with frailty. In the context of limited resources and increasing demand it's the ED practitioner's... Show moreEmergency Departments (EDs) are increasingly seeing more seriously unwell older people living with frailty. In the context of limited resources and increasing demand it's the ED practitioner's challenge to unpick this constellation of physical, psychological, functional and social issues. To properly assess older people living with frailty at the ED it is crucial to use an holistic approach. This consists of triage with algorithms sensitive to the higher risk of older people living with frailty, a frailty assessment, and an assessment with the help of the principles of Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment. Multi-disciplinary care, a tailor-made treatment plan, based on what the person values most, will help the ED practitioner to deliver appropriate and valuable care during the ED stay, but also in transition from hospital to home. Show less
Hond, A. de; Raven, W.; Schinkelshoek, L.; Gaakeer, M.; Avest, E. ter; Sir, O.; ... ; Groot, B. de 2021
Objective: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models... Show moreObjective: Early identification of emergency department (ED) patients who need hospitalization is essential for quality of care and patient safety. We aimed to compare machine learning (ML) models predicting the hospitalization of ED patients and conventional regression techniques at three points in time after ED registration.Methods: We analyzed consecutive ED patients of three hospitals using the Netherlands Emergency Department Evaluation Database (NEED). We developed prediction models for hospitalization using an increasing number of data available at triage, similar to 30 min (including vital signs) and similar to 2 h (including laboratory tests) after ED registration, using ML (random forest, gradient boosted decision trees, deep neural networks) and multivariable logistic regression analysis (including spline transformations for continuous predictors). Demographics, urgency, presenting complaints, disease severity and proxies for comorbidity, and complexity were used as covariates. We compared the performance using the area under the ROC curve in independent validation sets from each hospital.Results: We included 172,104 ED patients of whom 66,782 (39 %) were hospitalized. The AUC of the multi-variable logistic regression model was 0.82 (0.78-0.86) at triage, 0.84 (0.81-0.86) at similar to 30 min and 0.83 (0.75-0.92) after similar to 2 h. The best performing ML model over time was the gradient boosted decision trees model with an AUC of 0.84 (0.77-0.88) at triage, 0.86 (0.82-0.89) at similar to 30 min and 0.86 (0.74-0.93) after similar to 2 h.Conclusions: Our study showed that machine learning models had an excellent but similar predictive performance as the logistic regression model for predicting hospital admission. In comparison to the 30-min model, the 2-h model did not show a performance improvement. After further validation, these prediction models could support management decisions by real-time feedback to medical personal. Show less
Mooijaart, S.P.; Nickel, C.H.; Conroy, S.P.; Lucke, J.A.; Tol, L.S. van; Olthof, M.; ... ; Wallace, J. 2020
Key Summary PointsAim To provide an inventory and prioritisation of research questions amongst GEM professionals throughout Europe. Findings A list of 10 research questions was identified and... Show moreKey Summary PointsAim To provide an inventory and prioritisation of research questions amongst GEM professionals throughout Europe. Findings A list of 10 research questions was identified and prioritised. Message The list of research questions may serve as guidance for scientists, policymakers and funding bodies in prioritising future research projects.Purpose Geriatric Emergency Medicine (GEM) focuses on delivering optimal care to (sub)acutely ill older people. This involves a multidisciplinary approach throughout the whole healthcare chain. However, the underpinning evidence base is weak and it is unclear which research questions have the highest priority. The aim of this study was to provide an inventory and prioritisation of research questions among GEM professionals throughout Europe. Methods A two-stage modified Delphi approach was used. In stage 1, an online survey was administered to various professionals working in GEM both in the Emergency Department (ED) and other healthcare settings throughout Europe to make an inventory of potential research questions. In the processing phase, research questions were screened, categorised, and validated by an expert panel. Subsequently, in stage 2, remaining research questions were ranked based on relevance using a second online survey administered to the same target population, to identify the top 10 prioritised research questions. Results In response to the first survey, 145 respondents submitted 233 potential research questions. A total of 61 research questions were included in the second stage, which was completed by 176 respondents. The question with the highest priority was: Is implementation of elements of CGA (comprehensive geriatric assessment), such as screening for frailty and geriatric interventions, effective in improving outcomes for older patients in the ED? Conclusion This study presents a top 10 of high-priority research questions for a European Research Agenda for Geriatric Emergency Medicine. The list of research questions may serve as guidance for researchers, policymakers and funding bodies in prioritising future research projects. Show less
