When a patient is admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) after a traumatic brain injury (TBI), an early prognosis is essential for baseline risk adjustment and shared decision making. TBI... Show moreWhen a patient is admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) after a traumatic brain injury (TBI), an early prognosis is essential for baseline risk adjustment and shared decision making. TBI outcomes are commonly categorised by the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) into eight, ordered levels of functional recovery at 6 months after injury. Existing ICU prognostic models predict binary outcomes at a certain threshold of GOSE (e.g., prediction of survival [GOSE > 1]). We aimed to develop ordinal prediction models that concurrently predict probabilities of each GOSE score. From a prospective cohort (n = 1,550, 65 centres) in the ICU stratum of the Collaborative European NeuroTrauma Effectiveness Research in TBI (CENTER-TBI) patient dataset, we extracted all clinical information within 24 hours of ICU admission (1,151 predictors) and 6-month GOSE scores. We analysed the effect of two design elements on ordinal model performance: (1) the baseline predictor set, ranging from a concise set of ten validated predictors to a token-embedded representation of all possible predictors, and (2) the modelling strategy, from ordinal logistic regression to multinomial deep learning. With repeated k-fold cross-validation, we found that expanding the baseline predictor set significantly improved ordinal prediction performance while increasing analytical complexity did not. Half of these gains could be achieved with the addition of eight high-impact predictors to the concise set. At best, ordinal models achieved 0.76 (95% CI: 0.74-0.77) ordinal discrimination ability (ordinal c-index) and 57% (95% CI: 54%- 60%) explanation of ordinal variation in 6-month GOSE (Somers' D-xy). Model performance and the effect of expanding the predictor set decreased at higher GOSE thresholds, indicating the difficulty of predicting better functional outcomes shortly after ICU admission. Our results motivate the search for informative predictors that improve confidence in prognosis of higher GOSE and the development of ordinal dynamic prediction models. Show less
Jovanovic, M.; Dorp, S.M. van; Drakulovic, M.; Papic, D.; Pavic, S.; Jovanovic, S.; ... ; Kuijper, E.J. 2020
Clostridium (Clostridioides) difficile infections (CDIs) are among the most frequent healthcare-associated infections in Serbia. In 2013, Serbia participated in the European Clostridium difficile... Show moreClostridium (Clostridioides) difficile infections (CDIs) are among the most frequent healthcare-associated infections in Serbia. In 2013, Serbia participated in the European Clostridium difficile Infection Surveillance Network (ECDIS-Net) who launched a pilot study to enhance laboratory capacity and standardize surveillance for CDI. Two clinics of Clinical Center of Serbia [Clinic for Infectious and Tropical Diseases (CITD) and Clinic of Orthopedic Surgery and Traumatology (COT)] from Belgrade and one general hospital from another metropolitan area of Serbia, Laice, participated. During a period of 3 months in 2013, all patients with diagnosed CDI were included. The CDI incidence rates in CITD, COT, and General Hospital Uzice were 19.0, 12.2, and 3.9 per 10,000 patient-days, respectively. In total, 49 patients were enrolled in the study with average age of 72 years. A complicated course of CDI was found in 14.3% of all patients. Six (12.2%) of 49 patients died, but not attributable to CDI. Of 39 C. difficile isolates, available for ribotyping, 78.9% belonged to ribotype 027; other PCR ribotypes were 001, 015, 002, 005, 010, 014, and 276. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing revealed low levels of MIC50 and MIC90 for metronidazole (0.5 mu g/ml both) and vancomycin (0.25 and 0.5 mu g/ml), while 28 strains of ribotype 027 were resistant to moxifloxacin with MIC >= 4 mu g/ml. National surveillance is important to obtain more insight in the epidemiology of CDI and to compare the results with other European countries. This study by ECDIS-Net gives bases for a national surveillance of CDI in Serbia. Show less
