Background: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is 1.0% to 1.5%, despite uniform thromboprophylaxis. Objectives: To... Show moreBackground: The risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is 1.0% to 1.5%, despite uniform thromboprophylaxis. Objectives: To develop and validate a prediction model for 90-day VTE risk. Methods: A multinational cohort study was performed. For model development, records were used from the Oxford Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre linked to Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics UK routine data. For external validation, data were used from the Danish Hip and Knee Arthroplasty Registry, the National Patient Registry, and the National Prescription Registry. Binary multivariable logistic regression techniques were used for development. Results: In the UK data set, 64 032 THA/TKA procedures were performed and 1.4% developed VTE. The prediction model consisted of age, body mass index, sex, cystitis within 1 year before surgery, history of phlebitis, history of VTE, presence of varicose veins, presence of asthma, history of transient ischemic attack, history of myocardial infarction, presence of hypertension and THA or TKA. The area under the curve of the model was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67). Furthermore, 36 169 procedures were performed in the Danish cohort, of whom 1.0% developed VTE. Here, the area under the curve was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.61-0.67). The calibration slope was 0.92 in the validation study and 1.00 in the development study. Conclusion: This clinical prediction model for 90-day VTE risk following THA and TKA performed well in both development and validation data. This model can be used to estimate an individual’s risk for VTE following THA/TKA. Show less
Aims Whether diabetes increases venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unclear. Any greater risk may relate to insulin resistance, but many studies did not differentiate between type 1 diabetes and type 2... Show moreAims Whether diabetes increases venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unclear. Any greater risk may relate to insulin resistance, but many studies did not differentiate between type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes for VTE risk.Methods Retrospective cohort study of the Royal College of General Practitioners Research and Surveillance Centre, comprising over 530 primary care practices. We determined whether type 1 diabetes and/or type 2 diabetes are independent risk factors for VTE. The index date was 1 January 2009, individuals were followed to 31 December 2018, or censoring. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to investigate the risk of VTE in people with type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes relative to no diabetes. The primary outcome was occurrence of VTE. The model was adjusted for potential confounders for VTE.Results There were 7086 people with type 1 diabetes and 95,566 with type 2 diabetes, diagnosed before 1 January 2009. The non-diabetes group consisted of 1,407,699 people. In the unadjusted analysis, there was no increased risk of VTE with type 1 diabetes (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.76-1.33) but there was for type 2 diabetes (HR 2.70, 95% CI 2.57-2.84). In the fully adjusted model, VTE risk was increased in type 1 diabetes (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.11-1.92), but not with type 2 diabetes (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.98-1.14).Conclusions Type 1 diabetes was associated with a greater risk for VTE while type 2 diabetes was not. Further work is needed to determine the reason(s) for this. Show less
