Objectives: To examine the prognostic potential of repeated faecal haemoglobin (F-Hb) concentration measurements in faecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening for colorectal cancer (CRC).... Show moreObjectives: To examine the prognostic potential of repeated faecal haemoglobin (F-Hb) concentration measurements in faecal immunochemical test (FIT)-based screening for colorectal cancer (CRC). Design: Prognostic model. Setting: Dutch biennial FIT-based screening programme during 2014-2018. Participants: 265 881 participants completing three rounds of FIT, with negative test results (F-Hb <47 mu g Hb/g faeces) in rounds 1 and 2. Interventions: Colonoscopy follow-up in participants with a positive FIT (F-Hb >= 47 mu g Hb/g faeces). Main outcomes: We evaluated prognostic models for detecting advanced neoplasia (AN) and CRC in round 3, with as predictors, participant age, sex, F-Hb in rounds 1 and 2, and categories/combinations/non-linear transformations of F-Hb. Primary evaluation criteria included: risk prediction accuracy (calibration), discrimination of participants with versus without AN or CRC (optimism-adjusted C-statistics, range 0.5-1.0), the degree of risk stratification and C-statistics in external validation. Results: Among study participants, 8806 (3.3%) had a positive FIT result, 3254 (1.2%) had AN detected and 557 (0.2%) had cancer. F-Hb concentrations in rounds 1 and 2 were the strongest outcome predictors, with adjusted ORs of up to 9.4 (95% CI 7.5 to 11.7) for the highest F-Hb category. Risk predictions matched the observed risk for most participants (calibration intercept -0.008 to -0.099; slope 0.982-0.998), and discriminated participants with versus without AN or CRC with C-statistics of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.79) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.75), respectively. The predicted risk ranged from 0.4% to 36.7% for AN and from 0.0% to 5.5% for CRC across participants. In external validation, the model retained similar discrimination accuracy for AN (C-statistic 0.77, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.87) and CRC (C-statistic 0.78, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.91). Conclusion: Participants at lower versus higher risk of future AN or CRC can be accurately identified based on their age, sex and particularly, prior F-Hb concentrations. Risk stratification should be considered based on this information. Show less
Kooyker, A.I.; Verbeek, W.H.M.; Berg, J.G. van den; Tesselaar, M.E.T.; Leerdam, M.E. van 2019
Background Neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) are rare. However, a rising incidence has been reported over the past decades. For colorectal NETs, this is presumably caused by an increased awareness of... Show moreBackground Neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) are rare. However, a rising incidence has been reported over the past decades. For colorectal NETs, this is presumably caused by an increased awareness of colorectal diseases and colonoscopic procedures. This study aims to analyse the change in incidence of colorectal NETs, characteristics and management and evaluate the proportion of colorectal NETs detected in a national colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programme. Methods Histopathological reports on colorectal well-differentiated NETs detected between 2006 and 2016 were collected from the Dutch pathology database (PALGA) containing nationwide histo- and cytopathology reports of all pathology laboratories in the Netherlands. Results Colorectal NETs were detected in 1055 individuals. Increasing incidence rates were observed from 0.36 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2006 to 0.75 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2011 (p value < 0.001), remaining stable afterward. Most NETs were grade I (73.5%) and detected in the rectum (76.4%). The majority (88.2%) were detected by colonoscopy, and the final intervention depended significantly on primary location of the tumour; 94.6% of rectal NETs were endoscopically removed, whereas 61.0% of colonic NETs were removed by surgery. There was an increase in local excision both of rectal and colonic NETs over the years instead of radical resection. Screening for CRC started in 2014 and contributed by detecting 32% of the diagnosed colorectal NETs within the invited age group, of which 94.6% were detected at an early stage. Conclusion The incidence of reported colorectal NETs in the Netherlands doubled over the last decade. The Dutch CRC screening programme had a clear contribution to colorectal NETs incidence among its target population. A shift to more local management of detected lesions was observed over time. Show less
