Background: Surveillance of pancreatic cysts focuses on the detection of (mostly morphologic) features warranting surgery. European guidelines consider elevated CA19.9 as a relative indication for... Show moreBackground: Surveillance of pancreatic cysts focuses on the detection of (mostly morphologic) features warranting surgery. European guidelines consider elevated CA19.9 as a relative indication for surgery. We aimed to evaluate the role of CA19.9 monitoring for early detection and management in a cyst surveillance population. Methods: The PACYFIC-registry is a prospective collaboration that investigates the yield of pancreatic cyst surveillance performed at the discretion of the treating physician. We included participants for whom at least one serum CA19.9 value was determined by a minimum follow-up of 12 months. Results: Of 1865 PACYFIC participants, 685 met the inclusion criteria for this study (mean age 67 years, SD 10; 61% female). During a median follow-up of 25 months (IQR 24, 1966 visits), 29 participants developed high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer. At baseline, CA19.9 ranged from 1 to 591 kU/L (median 10 kU/L [IQR 14]), and was elevated (& GE;37 kU/L) in 64 participants (9%). During 191 of 1966 visits (10%), an elevated CA19.9 was detected, and these visits more often led to an intensified follow-up (42%) than those without an elevated CA19.9 (27%; p < 0.001). An elevated CA19.9 was the sole reason for surgery in five participants with benign disease (10%). The baseline CA19.9 value was (as continuous or dichotomous variable at the 37 kU/L threshold) not independently associated with HGD or pancreatic cancer development, whilst a CA19.9 of & GE; 133 kU/L was (HR 3.8, 95% CI 1.1-13, p = 0.03). Conclusions: In this pancreatic cyst surveillance cohort, CA19.9 monitoring caused substantial harm by shortening surveillance intervals (and performance of unnecessary surgery). The current CA19.9 cutoff was not predictive of HGD and pancreatic cancer, whereas a higher cutoff may decrease false-positive values. The role of CA19.9 monitoring should be critically appraised prior to implementation in surveillance programs and guidelines. Show less
Levink, I.J.M.; Klatte, D.C.F.; Hanna Sawires, R.G.; Vreeker, G.C.M.; Ibrahim, I.S.; Burgt, Y.E.M. van der; ... ; Mesker, W.E. 2022
Background: Surveillance of individuals at risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has the potential to improve survival, yet early detection based on solely imaging modalities... Show moreBackground: Surveillance of individuals at risk of developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has the potential to improve survival, yet early detection based on solely imaging modalities is challenging. We aimed to identify changes in serum glycosylation levels over time to earlier detect PDAC in high-risk individuals. Methods: Individuals with a hereditary predisposition to develop PDAC were followed in two surveillance programs. Those, of which at least two consecutive serum samples were available, were included. Mass spectrometry analysis was performed to determine the total N-glycome for each consecutive sample. Potentially discriminating N-glycans were selected based on our previous cross-sectional analysis and relative abundances were calculated for each glycosylation feature. Results: 165 individuals ("FPC-cohort" N = 119; Leiden cohort N = 46) were included. In total, 97 (59%) individuals had a genetic predisposition (77 CDKN2A, 15 BRCA1/2, 5 STK11) and 68 (41%) a family history of PDAC without a known genetic predisposition (>10-fold increased risk of developing PDAC). From each individual, a median number of 3 serum samples (IQR 3) was collected. Ten individuals (6%) developed PDAC during 35 months of follow-up; nine (90%) of these patients carried a CDKN2A germline mutation. In PDAC cases, compared to all controls, glycosylation characteristics were increased (fucosylation, tri-and tetra-antennary structures, specific sialic linkage types), others decreased (complex-type diantennary and bisected glycans).The largest change over time was observed for tri-antennary fucosylated glycans, which were able to differentiate cases from controls with a specificity of 92%, sensitivity of 49% and accuracy of 90%. Conclusion: Serum N-glycan monitoring may support early detection in a pancreas surveillance program.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of IAP and EPC. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Show less
Overbeek, K.A.; Goggins, M.G.; Dbouk, M.; Levink, I.J.M.; Koopmann, B.D.M.; Chuidian, M.; ... ; Int Canc Pancreas Screening Consor 2022
BACKGROUND & AIMS: To successfully implement imaging-based pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance, understanding the timeline and morphologic features of neoplastic progression is key. We aimed to... Show moreBACKGROUND & AIMS: To successfully implement imaging-based pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance, understanding the timeline and morphologic features of neoplastic progression is key. We aimed to investigate the progression to neoplasia from serial prediagnostic pancreatic imaging tests in high-risk individuals and identify factors associated with successful early detection. METHODS: We retrospectively examined the development of pancreatic abnormalities in high-risk individuals who were diagnosed with PC or underwent pancreatic surgery, or both, in 16 international surveillance programs. RESULTS: Of 2552 high-risk individuals under surveillance, 28 (1%) developed neoplastic progression to PC or high-grade dysplasia during a median follow-up of 29 months after baseline (interquartile range [IQR], 40 months). Of these, 13 of 28 (46%) presented with a new lesion (median size, 15 mm; range 7-57 mm), a median of 11 months (IQR, 8; range 317 months) after a prior examination, by which time 10 of 13 (77%) had progressed beyond the pancreas. The remaining 15 of 28 (54%) had neoplastic progression in a previously detected lesion (12 originally cystic, 2 indeterminate, 1 solid), and 11 (73%) had PC progressed beyond the pancreas. The 12 patients with cysts had been monitored for 21 months (IQR, 15 months) and had a median growth of 5 mm/y (IQR, 8 mm/y). Successful early detection (as high-grade dysplasia or PC confined to the pancreas) was associated with resection of cystic lesions (vs solid or indeterminate lesions (odds ratio, 5.388; 95% confidence interval, 1.525-19.029) and small lesions (odds ratio, 0.890/mm; 95% confidence interval 0.812-0.976/mm). CONCLUSIONS: In nearly half of high-risk individuals developing high-grade dysplasia or PC, no prior lesions are detected by imaging, yet they present at an advanced stage. Progression can occur before the next scheduled annual examination. More sensitive diagnostic tools or a different management strategy for rapidly growing cysts are needed. Show less
Objective We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals. Design From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled... Show moreObjective We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals. Design From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit. Results 366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1-32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001). Conclusion The diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers. Show less
Pancreatic cancer (PC) survival is poor, as detection usually occurs late, when treatment options are limited. Screening of high-risk individuals may enable early detection and a more favorable... Show morePancreatic cancer (PC) survival is poor, as detection usually occurs late, when treatment options are limited. Screening of high-risk individuals may enable early detection and a more favorable prognosis. Knowledge gaps prohibit establishing the effectiveness of screening. We developed a Microsimulation Screening Analysis model to analyze the impact of relevant uncertainties on the effect of PC screening in high-risk individuals. The model simulates two base cases: one in which lesions always progress to PC and one in which indolent and faster progressive lesions coexist. For each base case, the effect of annual and 5-yearly screening with endoscopic ultrasonography/magnetic resonance imaging was evaluated. The impact of variance in PC risk, screening test characteristics and surgery-related mortality was evaluated using sensitivity analyses. Screening resulted in a reduction of PC mortality by at least 16% in all simulated scenarios. This reduction depended strongly on the natural disease course (annual screening: -57% for "Progressive-only" vs -41% for "Indolent Included"). The number of screen and surveillance tests needed to prevent one cancer death was impacted most by PC risk. A 10% increase in test sensitivity reduced mortality by 1.9% at most. Test specificity is important for the number of surveillance tests. In conclusion, screening reduces PC mortality in all modeled scenarios. The natural disease course and PC risk strongly determines the effectiveness of screening. Test sensitivity seems of lesser influence than specificity. Future research should gain more insight in PC pathobiology to establish the true value of PC screening in high-risk individuals. Show less
