IMPORTANCE Unruptured intracranial aneurysms not undergoing preventive endovascular or neurosurgical treatment are often monitored radiologically to detect aneurysm growth, which is associated with... Show moreIMPORTANCE Unruptured intracranial aneurysms not undergoing preventive endovascular or neurosurgical treatment are often monitored radiologically to detect aneurysm growth, which is associated with an increase in risk of rupture. However, the absolute risk of aneurysm rupture after detection of growth remains unclear.OBJECTIVE To determine the absolute risk of rupture of an aneurysm after detection of growth during follow-up and to develop a prediction model for rupture.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual patient datawere obtained from 15 international cohorts. Patients 18 years and older who had follow-up imaging for at least 1 untreated unruptured intracranial aneurysm with growth detected at follow-up imaging and with 1 day or longer of follow-up after growth were included. Fusiform or arteriovenous malformation-related aneurysms were excluded. Of the 5166 eligible patients who had follow-up imaging for intracranial aneurysms, 4827 were excluded because no aneurysm growth was detected, and 27 were excluded because they had less than 1 day follow-up after detection of growth.EXPOSURES All included aneurysms had growth, defined as 1mmor greater increase in 1 direction at follow-up imaging.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcomewas aneurysm rupture. The absolute risk of rupture was measured with the Kaplan-Meier estimate at 3 time points (6 months, 1 year, and 2 years) after initial growth. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify predictors of rupture after growth detection. RESULTS A total of 312 patients were included (223 [71%] were women; mean [SD] age, 61 [12] years) with 329 aneurysms with growth. During 864 aneurysm-years of follow-up, 25 (7.6%) of these aneurysms ruptured. The absolute risk of rupture after growth was 2.9% (95% CI, 0.9-4.9) at 6 months, 4.3%(95% CI, 1.9-6.7) at 1 year, and 6.0% (95% CI, 2.9-9.1) at 2 years. In multivariable analyses, predictors of rupture were size (7mmor larger hazard ratio, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.4-7.2), shape (irregular hazard ratio, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3-6.5), and site (middle cerebral artery hazard ratio, 3.6; 95% CI, 0.8-16.3; anterior cerebral artery, posterior communicating artery, or posterior circulation hazard ratio, 2.8; 95% CI, 0.6-13.0). In the triple-S (size, site, shape) prediction model, the 1-year risk of rupture ranged from 2.1% to 10.6%.CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE Within 1 year after growth detection, rupture occurred in approximately 1 of 25 aneurysms. The triple-S risk prediction model can be used to estimate absolute risk of rupture for the initial period after detection of growth. Show less
Boom, V.E.A.; Kamp, L.T. van der; Zuilen, A.D. van; Ranitz, W.L. de; Bos, W.J.; Jellema, W.T.; ... ; Kaasjager, K. 2020
Introduction eConsultation in nephrology is an innovative way for general practitioners (GPs) to consult a nephrologist. Studies have shown that questions from GPs can be answered and intended... Show moreIntroduction eConsultation in nephrology is an innovative way for general practitioners (GPs) to consult a nephrologist. Studies have shown that questions from GPs can be answered and intended referrals can be avoided by eConsultation. However, follow-up data are lacking. The primary aim of this study was therefore to assess whether patients for whom a referral to the outpatient clinic of a medical specialist was avoided in the short term were not then referred for the same problem within one year after the eConsultation. Methods All eConsultations sent between June 2017 and April 2018 to seven nephrologists in three different hospitals in The Netherlands were included. Exclusion criteria were duplications and missing data on follow-up. Data were obtained from the eConsultation application forms and from GP medical records. Results A total of 173 eConsultations were included. Of the 32 patients for whom a referral was initially prevented, 91% (95% confidence interval 75-98) had not been referred to a specialist for the same problem within one year after the eConsultation. Discussion eConsultation in the field of nephrology can prevent referrals in the long term. It can therefore contribute to a more modern and efficient health-care system in which chronic care is provided by GPs in close proximity to patients, while specialist support is easily available and accessible through eConsultation when necessary. Show less
