ImportanceAlthough IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common glomerulonephritis in the world, there is no validated tool to predict disease progression. This limits patient-specific risk... Show moreImportanceAlthough IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common glomerulonephritis in the world, there is no validated tool to predict disease progression. This limits patient-specific risk stratification and treatment decisions, clinical trial recruitment, and biomarker validation. ObjectiveTo derive and externally validate a prediction model for disease progression in IgAN that can be applied at the time of kidney biopsy in multiple ethnic groups worldwide. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsWe derived and externally validated a prediction model using clinical and histologic risk factors that are readily available in clinical practice. Large, multi-ethnic cohorts of adults with biopsy-proven IgAN were included from Europe, North America, China, and Japan. Main Outcomes and MeasuresCox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the risk of a 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage kidney disease, and were evaluated using the R-D(2) measure, Akaike information criterion (AIC), C statistic, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and calibration plots. ResultsThe study included 3927 patients; mean age, 35.4 (interquartile range, 28.0-45.4) years; and 2173 (55.3%) were men. The following prediction models were created in a derivation cohort of 2781 patients: a clinical model that included eGFR, blood pressure, and proteinuria at biopsy; and 2 full models that also contained the MEST histologic score, age, medication use, and either racial/ethnic characteristics (white, Japanese, or Chinese) or no racial/ethnic characteristics, to allow application in other ethnic groups. Compared with the clinical model, the full models with and without race/ethnicity had better R-D(2) (26.3% and 25.3%, respectively, vs 20.3%) and AIC (6338 and 6379, respectively, vs 6485), significant increases in C statistic from 0.78 to 0.82 and 0.81, respectively (Delta C, 0.04; 95% CI, 0.03-0.04 and Delta C, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.02-0.03, respectively), and significant improvement in reclassification as assessed by the NRI (0.18; 95% CI, 0.07-0.29 and 0.51; 95% CI, 0.39-0.62, respectively) and IDI (0.07; 95% CI, 0.06-0.08 and 0.06; 95% CI, 0.05-0.06, respectively). External validation was performed in a cohort of 1146 patients. For both full models, the C statistics (0.82; 95% CI, 0.81-0.83 with race/ethnicity; 0.81; 95% CI, 0.80-0.82 without race/ethnicity) and R-D(2) (both 35.3%) were similar or better than in the validation cohort, with excellent calibration. Conclusions and RelevanceIn this study, the 2 full prediction models were shown to be accurate and validated methods for predicting disease progression and patient risk stratification in IgAN in multi-ethnic cohorts, with additional applications to clinical trial design and biomarker research. Show less
Daalen, E.E. van; Jennette, C.; McAdoo, S.; Garibay, M.A.A.; Poulton, C.; Wolterbeek, R.; ... ; Bajema, I. 2017
Objectives The systemic vasculitides are multiorgan diseases where early diagnosis and treatment can significantly improve outcomes. Robust nomenclature reduces diagnostic delay. However, key... Show moreObjectives The systemic vasculitides are multiorgan diseases where early diagnosis and treatment can significantly improve outcomes. Robust nomenclature reduces diagnostic delay. However, key aspects of current nomenclature are widely perceived to be out of date, these include disease definitions, classification and diagnostic criteria. Therefore, the aim of the present work was to identify deficiencies and provide contemporary points to consider for the development of future definitions and criteria in systemic vasculitis. Methods The expert panel identified areas of concern within existing definitions/criteria. Consequently, a systematic literature review was undertaken looking to address these deficiencies and produce 'points to consider' in accordance with standardised European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) operating procedures. In the absence of evidence, expert consensus was used. Results There was unanimous consensus for re-evaluating existing definitions and developing new criteria. A total of 17 points to consider were proposed, covering 6 main areas: biopsy, laboratory testing, diagnostic radiology, nosology, definitions and research agenda. Suggestions to improve and expand current definitions were described including the incorporation of anti-neutrophil cytoplasm antibody and aetiological factors, where known. The importance of biopsy in diagnosis and exclusion of mimics was highlighted, while equally emphasising its problems. Thus, the role of alternative diagnostic tools such as MRI, ultrasound and surrogate markers were also discussed. Finally, structures to develop future criteria were considered. Conclusions Limitations in current classification criteria and definitions for vasculitis have been identified and suggestions provided for improvement. Additionally it is proposed that, in combination with the updated evidence, these should form the basis of future attempts to develop and validate revised criteria and definitions of vasculitis. Show less
