Objective: To develop prediction models for individual patient harm and benefit outcomes in elderly patients with RA and comorbidities treated with chronic low-dose glucocorticoid therapy or... Show moreObjective: To develop prediction models for individual patient harm and benefit outcomes in elderly patients with RA and comorbidities treated with chronic low-dose glucocorticoid therapy or placebo. Methods: In the Glucocorticoid Low-dose Outcome in Rheumatoid Arthritis (GLORIA) study, 451 RA patients >= 65 years of age were randomized to 2 years 5 mg/day prednisolone or placebo. Eight prediction models were developed from the dataset in a stepwise procedure based on prior knowledge. The first set of four models disregarded study treatment and examined general predictive factors. The second set of four models was similar but examined the additional role of low-dose prednisolone. In each set, two models focused on harm [the occurrence of one or more adverse events of special interest (AESIs) and the number of AESIs per year) and two on benefit (early clinical response/disease activity and a lack of joint damage progression). Linear and logistic multivariable regression methods with backward selection were used to develop the models. The final models were assessed and internally validated with bootstrapping techniques. Results: A few variables were slightly predictive for one of the outcomes in the models, but none were of immediate clinical value. The quality of the prediction models was sufficient and the performance was low to moderate (explained variance 12-15%, area under the curve 0.67-0.69). Conclusion: Baseline factors are not helpful in selecting elderly RA patients for treatment with low-dose prednisolone given their low power to predict the chance of benefit or harm. Show less
Boel, A.; Lopez-Medina, C.; Heijde, D.M.F.M. van der; Gaalen, F.A. van 2021
Objective: Age at onset is useful in identifying chronic back patients at an increased risk of axial SpA (axSpA). However, the majority of data on which the criterion of age at onset. Methods:... Show moreObjective: Age at onset is useful in identifying chronic back patients at an increased risk of axial SpA (axSpA). However, the majority of data on which the criterion of age at onset. Methods: Analyses were applied to patients from 24 countries across the world with an axSpA diagnosis and known age at onset of axial complaints. Cumulative probability plots were used to display the cumulative distribution of age at onset of axial symptoms. Linear regression models were built to assess the effect of HLA-B27 and gender on age at onset of axial symptoms. Results: Of 2579 axSpA patients, 92% had an age at onset of axial symptoms <45 years, with only small variations across the geographical regions [Asia, n = 574 (94%); Europe and North America, n = 988 (92%); Latin America, n = 246 (89%); Middle East and North Africa, n = 771 (91%)]. Age at onset of axial symptoms was consistently lower in HLA-B27-positive patients {median 25 years [interquartile range (IQR) 19-32] vs 31 [IQR 22-39]} and male patients [median 25 years (IQR 19-33) vs 28 (IQR 21-37)], but in multivariable models an additional statistically significant effect of male gender independent of HLA-B27 was only found in Asia. Conclusion: Around the world, the great majority of axSpA patients had an age at onset of axial disease of <45 years, with HLA-B27 and male gender associated with earlier disease onset. Show less
