Policymakers and scholars have long proposed that willingness to participate in armed conflict is influenced by citizens' income-earning opportunities. Testing this opportunity cost mechanism has... Show morePolicymakers and scholars have long proposed that willingness to participate in armed conflict is influenced by citizens' income-earning opportunities. Testing this opportunity cost mechanism has led to mixed results. One reason for this might be the fact that current proxies can also serve as indicators to test grievance-based theories. In this study, we construct a more suitable measure. We use crop calendars and crop location data to build an index of agricultural idle time for first administration units on the African continent from 1990 to 2017. We test the explanatory power of this measure by examining its relationship with armed conflict. Our results show that agricultural idle time increases the probability of observing armed conflict by more than 20 percent. Show less
Worldwide, children are enrolled in primary school in greater numbers than everbefore. Nonetheless, school dropout rates are significant in many countries. A crucialfactor in a child’s education... Show moreWorldwide, children are enrolled in primary school in greater numbers than everbefore. Nonetheless, school dropout rates are significant in many countries. A crucialfactor in a child’s education and potential for leaving school is their family’s economicinsecurity. Low-income households, in particular, are highly sensitive to food prices,and increases in the cost of food staples can force families to sacrifice education tosmooth food consumption. While earlier studies have relied on aggregate measuresof economic conditions or are restricted to single countries and limited time periods,we take an individual approach and examine how education is affected by local foodprice volatility. Empirically, we combine individual-level data on school dropout from40 Demographic and Health Surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries between1992 and 2020 with geo-referenced data on consumer food prices at local marketsfrom the World Food Programme. Our results show that children are up to 8 percentmore likely to drop out when local food prices sharply increase. Notably, this effectis strongest for older children, especially for boys. This demonstrates that economicinstability during childhood can have long-run adverse effects on individuals and hasimportant implications for understanding the human capital costs of income crises Show less
Environmental changes place severe pressure on individuals and societies. Vulnerable segments of the population, especially children, are likely to be first affected. We examine the impact of... Show moreEnvironmental changes place severe pressure on individuals and societies. Vulnerable segments of the population, especially children, are likely to be first affected. We examine the impact of climate variability on the recruitment of children by rebel groups during conflict. We argue that changes in climate patterns increase both the supply of children willing to work as soldiers and rebel groups’ demand for them. To empirically examine this association, we combine global data on temperature and precipitation shocks with information on child soldier recruitment by rebel groups. Our findings suggest that climate variability shapes child soldier recruitment in systematic and significant ways. Additionally, we show that this relationship is not gender-neutral: it has a strong impact on the level of girls recruited by rebel groups. This research has important implications for our understanding of how climate variability can influence conflict dynamics, how environmental changes may worsen the circumstances of the most vulnerable individuals of conflict-affected societies, and how a non-gender-neutral effect of climate change may materialize. Show less
Østby, G.; Rustad, S.A.; Haer, R. van der; Arasmith, A. 2022
Although armed conflicts and crises affect people of all ages, children are particularly susceptible to the effects of war. One significant consequence of armed conflict that is especially... Show moreAlthough armed conflicts and crises affect people of all ages, children are particularly susceptible to the effects of war. One significant consequence of armed conflict that is especially critical for children's well-being, is when the belligerents use tactics specifically focused on harming children, including child soldier recruitment. Despite the increased attention of policy-makers, we still lack systematic knowledge of how many children are directly and indirectly at risk of being recruited by state and non-state actors. In overcoming this gap, we have collected data on the use of children by state and non-state actors from 2010 onwards. Moreover, we estimate the number of children at risk of recruitment. The results of our mapping and estimation sketch a dark picture. According to our estimates, in 2020, approximately 337 million children (or 14%, or more than one in eight of all children globally) were living in a conflict zone with reported child soldier recruitment—that is less than 50 km from ongoing conflict, which involved at least one actor who has been reported to recruit children. We close the paper by taking stock of the current knowledge on the root causes of child soldiering, and we discuss some policy implications. Show less
Dumke, L.; Haer, R. van der; Zawadka, A.; Salmen, C.; Hecker, T. 2022
How is conflict duration affected by female combatants in rebel group? In this study, we advance three possible pathways through which female combatants enhance the resilience of the rebel group,... Show moreHow is conflict duration affected by female combatants in rebel group? In this study, we advance three possible pathways through which female combatants enhance the resilience of the rebel group, thereby lengthening the conflict. We explore this association using quantitative cross-sectional data on female combatant and conflict duration. The positive relationship between female combatants and civil war duration from quantitative analysis is substantiated by the qualitative evidence collected via in-depth interviews with former male and female combatants in the Maoist insurgency in Nepal. This work has important implications for the study of armed conflict duration, rebel organizations, and post-conflict peacebuilding. Show less
Haer, R. van der; Østby, G.; Rustad, S.R.; Arasmith, A. 2021
Children are currently being recruited to an increasing extent by armed groups, assuming both ancillary and combat roles. Academic research on this phenomenon has grown in scope over the last few... Show moreChildren are currently being recruited to an increasing extent by armed groups, assuming both ancillary and combat roles. Academic research on this phenomenon has grown in scope over the last few years. However, the current research lacks a comparative perspective. As a result, we presently have a very restricted perspective of the state of the art on the subject of child soldiering, making it difficult to recognise research areas that urgently require further investigation. The ambition of this article is twofold: first, to explore the existing state of child soldier studies across disciplines, and second, to encourage potential research by highlighting three relatively underdeveloped research areas. Show less
