Early prediction, quantification and translation of cardiovascular hemodynamic drug effects is essential in pre-clinical drug development. In this study, a novel hemodynamic cardiovascular systems ... Show moreEarly prediction, quantification and translation of cardiovascular hemodynamic drug effects is essential in pre-clinical drug development. In this study, a novel hemodynamic cardiovascular systems (CVS) model was developed to support these goals. The model consisted of distinct system- and drug-specific parameter, and uses data for heart rate (HR), cardiac output (CO), and mean atrial pressure (MAP) to infer drug mode-of-action (MoA). To support further application of this model in drug development, we conducted a systematic analysis of the estimation performance of the CVS model to infer drug- and system-specific parameters. Specifically, we focused on the impact on model estimation performance when considering differences in available readouts and the impact of study design choices. To this end, a practical identifiability analysis was performed, evaluating model estimation performance for different combinations of hemodynamic endpoints, drug effect sizes, and study design characteristics. The practical identifiability analysis showed that MoA of drug effect could be identified for different drug effect magnitudes and both system- and drug-specific parameters can be estimated precisely with minimal bias. Study designs which exclude measurement of CO or use a reduced measurement duration still allow the identification and quantification of MoA with acceptable performance. In conclusion, the CVS model can be used to support the design and inference of MoA in pre-clinical CVS experiments, with a future potential for applying the uniquely identifiable systems parameters to support inter-species scaling. Show less
Mehta, K.M.; Guo, T.; Graaf, P.H. van der; Hasselt, J.G.C. van 2023
BACKGROUND\nMETHODS\nRESULTS\nCONCLUSIONS\nSite-of-action concentrations for bedaquiline and pretomanid from tuberculosis patients are unavailable. The objective of this work was to predict... Show moreBACKGROUND\nMETHODS\nRESULTS\nCONCLUSIONS\nSite-of-action concentrations for bedaquiline and pretomanid from tuberculosis patients are unavailable. The objective of this work was to predict bedaquiline and pretomanid site-of-action exposures using a translational minimal physiologically based pharmacokinetic (mPBPK) approach to understand the probability of target attainment (PTA).\nA general translational mPBPK framework for the prediction of lung and lung lesion exposure was developed and validated using pyrazinamide site-of-action data from mice and humans. We then implemented the framework for bedaquiline and pretomanid. Simulations were conducted to predict site-of-action exposures following standard bedaquiline and pretomanid, and bedaquiline once-daily dosing. Probabilities of average concentrations within lesions and lungs greater than the minimum bactericidal concentration for non-replicating (MBCNR) and replicating (MBCR) bacteria were calculated. Effects of patient-specific differences on target attainment were evaluated.\nThe translational modeling approach was successful in predicting pyrazinamide lung concentrations from mice to patients. We predicted that 94% and 53% of patients would attain bedaquiline average daily PK exposure within lesions (Cavg-lesion) > MBCNR during the extensive phase of bedaquiline standard (2 weeks) and once-daily (8 weeks) dosing, respectively. Less than 5% of patients were predicted to achieve Cavg-lesion > MBCNR during the continuation phase of bedaquiline or pretomanid treatment, and more than 80% of patients were predicted to achieve Cavg-lung >MBCR for all simulated dosing regimens of bedaquiline and pretomanid.\nThe translational mPBPK model predicted that the standard bedaquiline continuation phase and standard pretomanid dosing may not achieve optimal exposures to eradicate non-replicating bacteria in most patients. Show less
Mehta, K.M.; Guo, T.; Wallis, R.S.; Graaf, P.H. van der; Hasselt, J.G.C. van 2022
Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling of the host immune response against Mycobacterium tuberculosis can inform the rational design of host-directed therapies (HDTs). We aimed to develop... Show moreQuantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) modeling of the host immune response against Mycobacterium tuberculosis can inform the rational design of host-directed therapies (HDTs). We aimed to develop a QSP framework to evaluate the effects of metformin-associated autophagy induction in combination with antibiotics. A QSP framework for autophagy was developed by extending a model for host immune response to include adenosine monophosphate-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-mTOR-autophagy signaling. This model was combined with pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models for metformin and antibiotics against M. tuberculosis. We compared the model predictions to mice infection experiments and derived predictions for the pathogen- and host-associated dynamics in humans treated with metformin in combination with antibiotics. The model adequately captured the observed bacterial load dynamics in mice M. tuberculosis infection models treated with metformin. Simulations for adjunctive metformin therapy in newly diagnosed patients suggested a limited yet dose-dependent effect of metformin on reduction of the intracellular bacterial load when the overall bacterial load is low, late during antibiotic treatment. We present the first QSP framework for HDTs against M. tuberculosis, linking cellular-level autophagy effects to disease progression and adjunctive HDT treatment response. This framework may be extended to guide the design of HDTs against M. tuberculosis. Show less
Liu, F.; Aulin, L.B.S.; Guo, T.; Krekels, E.H.J.; Moerland, M.; Graaf, P.H. van der; Hasselt, J.G.C. van 2022
Clinical studies in healthy volunteers challenged with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), a constituent of the cell wall of Gram-negative bacteria, represent a key model to characterize the Toll-like... Show moreClinical studies in healthy volunteers challenged with lipopolysaccharide (LPS), a constituent of the cell wall of Gram-negative bacteria, represent a key model to characterize the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4)-mediated inflammatory response. Here, we developed a mathematical modelling framework to quantitatively characterize the dynamics and inter-individual variability of multiple inflammatory biomarkers in healthy volunteer LPS challenge studies. Data from previously reported LPS challenge studies were used, which included individual-level time-course data for tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha), interleukin 6 (IL-6), interleukin 8 (IL-8) and C-reactive protein (CRP). A one-compartment model with first-order elimination was used to capture the LPS kinetics. The relationships between LPS and inflammatory markers was characterized using indirect response (IDR) models. Delay differential equations were applied to quantify the delays in biomarker response profiles. For LPS kinetics, our estimates of clearance and volume of distribution were 35.7 L h(-1) and 6.35 L, respectively. Our model adequately captured the dynamics of multiple inflammatory biomarkers. The time delay for the secretion of TNF-alpha, IL-6 and IL-8 were estimated to be 0.924, 1.46 and 1.48 h, respectively. A second IDR model was used to describe the induced changes of CRP in relation to IL-6, with a delayed time of 4.2 h. The quantitative models developed in this study can be used to inform design of clinical LPS challenge studies and may help to translate preclinical LPS challenge studies to humans. Show less
Background and objective: Previous pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of ciprofloxacin in intensive care (ICU) patients have shown large differences in estimated PK parameters, suggesting that further... Show moreBackground and objective: Previous pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of ciprofloxacin in intensive care (ICU) patients have shown large differences in estimated PK parameters, suggesting that further investigation is needed for this population. Hence, we performed a pooled population PK analysis of ciprofloxacin after intravenous administration using individual patient data from three studies. Additionally, we studied the PK differences between these studies through a post-hoc analysis.Methods: Individual patient data from three studies (study 1, 2, and 3) were pooled. The pooled data set consisted of 1094 ciprofloxacin concentration-time data points from 140 ICU patients. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was used to develop a population PK model. Covariates were selected following a stepwise covariate modeling procedure. To analyze PK differences between the three original studies, random samples were drawn from the posterior distribution of individual PK parameters. These samples were used for a simulation study comparing PK exposure and the percentage of target attainment between patients of these studies.Results: A two-compartment model with first-order elimination best described the data. Inter-individual variability was added to the clearance, central volume, and peripheral volume. Inter-occasion variability was added to clearance only. Body weight was added to all parameters allometrically. Estimated glomerular filtration rate on ciprofloxacin clearance was identified as the only covariate relationship resulting in a drop in inter-individual variability of clearance from 58.7 to 47.2%. In the post-hoc analysis, clearance showed the highest deviation between the three studies with a coefficient of variation of 14.3% for posterior mean and 24.1% for posterior inter-individual variability. The simulation study showed that following the same dose regimen of 400 mg three times daily, the area under the concentration-time curve of study 3 was the highest with a mean area under the concentration-time curve at 24 h of 58 mg·h/L compared with that of 47.7 mg·h/L for study 1 and 47.6 mg·h/L for study 2. Similar differences were also observed in the percentage of target attainment, defined as the ratio of area under the concentration-time curve at 24 h and the minimum inhibitory concentration. At the epidemiological cut-off minimum inhibitory concentration of Pseudomonas aeruginosa of 0.5 mg/L, percentage of target attainment was only 21%, 18%, and 38% for study 1, 2, and 3, respectively.Conclusions: We developed a population PK model of ciprofloxacin in ICU patients using pooled data of individual patients from three studies. A simple ciprofloxacin dose recommendation for the entire ICU population remains challenging owing to the PK differences within ICU patients, hence dose individualization may be needed for the optimization of ciprofloxacin treatment. Show less
