The prevalence and severity of metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are increasing. Physicians who treat patients with MASLD may acknowledge the strong coincidence with... Show moreThe prevalence and severity of metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) are increasing. Physicians who treat patients with MASLD may acknowledge the strong coincidence with cardiometabolic disease, including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (asCVD). This raises questions on co-occurrence, causality, and the need for screening and multidisciplinary care for MASLD in patients with asCVD, and vice versa. Here, we review the interrelations of MASLD and heart disease and formulate answers to these matters. Epidemiological studies scoring proxies for atherosclerosis and actual cardiovascular events indicate increased atherosclerosis in patients with MASLD, yet no increased risk of asCVD mortality. MASLD and asCVD share common drivers: obesity, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), smoking, hypertension, and sleep apnea syndrome. In addition, Mendelian randomization studies support that MASLD may cause atherosclerosis through mixed hyperlipidemia, while such evidence is lacking for liver-derived procoagulant factors. In the more advanced fibrotic stages, MASLD may contribute to heart failure with preserved ejection fraction by reduced filling of the right ventricle, which may induce fatigue upon exertion, often mentioned by patients with MASLD. Some evidence points to an association between MASLD and cardiac arrhythmias. Regarding treatment and given the strong co-occurrence of MASLD and asCVD, pharmacotherapy in development for advanced stages of MASLD would ideally also reduce cardiovascular events, as has been demonstrated for T2DM treatments. Given the common drivers, potential causal factors and especially given the increased rate of cardiovascular events, comprehensive cardiometabolic risk management is warranted in patients with MASLD, preferably in a multidisciplinary approach. Show less
OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of the EuroSCORE II over time and dynamics in values of predictors included in the model.METHODS A cohort study was performed... Show moreOBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to investigate the performance of the EuroSCORE II over time and dynamics in values of predictors included in the model.METHODS A cohort study was performed using data from the Netherlands Heart Registration. All cardiothoracic surgical procedures performed between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2019 were included for analysis. Performance of the EuroSCORE II was assessed across 3-month intervals in terms of calibration and discrimination. For subgroups of major surgical procedures, performance of the EuroSCORE II was assessed across 12-month time intervals. Changes in values of individual EuroSCORE II predictors over time were assessed graphically.RESULTS A total of 103 404 cardiothoracic surgical procedures were included. Observed mortality risk ranged between 1.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-2.4] and 3.6% (95% CI 2.6-4.4) across 3-month intervals, while the mean predicted mortality risk ranged between 3.4% (95% CI 3.3-3.6) and 4.2% (95% CI 3.9-4.6). The corresponding observed:expected ratios ranged from 0.50 (95% CI 0.46-0.61) to 0.95 (95% CI 0.74-1.16). Discriminative performance in terms of the c-statistic ranged between 0.82 (95% CI 0.78-0.89) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.87-0.93). The EuroSCORE II consistently overestimated mortality compared to observed mortality. This finding was consistent across all major cardiothoracic surgical procedures. Distributions of values of individual predictors varied broadly across predictors over time. Most notable trends were a decrease in elective surgery from 75% to 54% and a rise in patients with no or New York Heart Association I class heart failure from 27% to 33%.CONCLUSIONS The EuroSCORE II shows good discriminative performance, but consistently overestimates mortality risks of all types of major cardiothoracic surgical procedures in the Netherlands.The EuroSCORE II model aims to support clinicians and their patients to determine whether benefits of cardiac surgery outweigh mortality risks associated with these procedures [1]. Show less
BackgroundThe estimated global prevalence and burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its advanced stage, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), is increasing. Yet, NAFLD remains... Show moreBackgroundThe estimated global prevalence and burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and its advanced stage, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), is increasing. Yet, NAFLD remains largely underdiagnosed. In addition to hepatic morbidity and mortality, NAFLD is associated with increased cardiovascular complications, warranting a multidisciplinary approach. Despite its rapidly increasing prevalence, knowledge of NAFLD among healthcare workers is limited, especially with specialists outside the field of hepatology and gastroenterology. ObjectivesTo investigate knowledge, practice and opinions/attitudes of healthcare workers towards diagnosis and management of NAFLD/NASH. MethodsThe survey was designed in collaboration with a multidisciplinary scientific committee established especially for this study. The survey was disseminated to healthcare workers from seven different disciplines through four collaborating societies, social media and at a cardiology-themed conference from February to June 2022. Median and interquartile range were mentioned for numeric responses and proportions for categorical responses or responses on a Likert scale. Likert scale responses were treated as ordinal data and analysed with the appropriate tests. ResultsThe full dataset included 613 respondents from 88 different countries (including 488 physicians). 64% of the surveyed physicians underestimated the prevalence of NAFLD. General practitioners and cardiologists underestimated the prevalence most often (74% and 77%, respectively). Compared to the other disciplines, cardiologists were least familiar with the symptoms and diagnostic criteria and felt least confident in diagnosing and managing NAFLD. Overall, 65% of physicians reported regularly using evidence-based guidelines for managing NAFLD, yet 72% reported challenges in providing lifestyle recommendations. A lack of awareness was the most common reported reason for the lack of screening for NAFLD (68% respectively). ConclusionsDespite the growing burden of NAFLD, there is a significant gap in awareness, knowledge, and management among physicians treating patients with cardiometabolic comorbidities, particularly cardiologists. Hepatologists and gastroenterologists could play a role in educating their fellow physicians. Show less
Current guidelines barely support marine omega-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) in cardiology, mainly because results of large trials were equivocal. Most... Show moreCurrent guidelines barely support marine omega-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) in cardiology, mainly because results of large trials were equivocal. Most large trials have tested EPA alone or EPA + DHA combined as a drug, thereby disregarding the relevance of their blood levels. These levels are frequently assessed with the Omega-3 Index (percentage of EPA + DHA in erythrocytes), which is determined using a specific standardised analytical procedure. EPA and DHA are present in every human being at unpredictable levels (even in the absence of intake), and their bioavailability is complex. Both facts need to be incorporated into trial design and should direct clinical use of EPA and DHA. An Omega-3 Index in the target range of 8-11% is associated with lower total mortality, fewer major adverse cardiac and other cardiovascular events. Moreover, functions of organs such as the brain benefit from an Omega-3 Index in the target range, while untoward effects, such as bleeding or atrial fibrillation, are minimised. In pertinent intervention trials, several organ functions were improved, with improvements correlating with the Omega-3 Index. Thus, the Omega-3 Index is relevant in trial design and clinical medicine, which calls for a widely available standardised analytical procedure and a discussion on possible reimbursement of this test. Show less
Dijk, W.B. van; Schuit, E.; Graaf, R. van der; Groenwold, R.H.H.; Laurijssen, S.; Casadei, B.; ... ; Grobbee, D.E. 2022
Aims:To assess the feasibility to comply with the recommended actions of ESC guidelines on general cardiology areas in 102 countries and assess how compliance relates to the country's income level.... Show moreAims:To assess the feasibility to comply with the recommended actions of ESC guidelines on general cardiology areas in 102 countries and assess how compliance relates to the country's income level. Methods and results: All recommendations from seven ESC guidelines on general cardiology areas were extracted and labelled on recommended actions. A survey was sent to all 102 ESC national and affiliated cardiac societies (NCSs). Respondents were asked to score recommended actions on their availability in clinical practice on a four-point Likert scale (fully available, mostly/often available, mostly/often unavailable, fully unavailable), and select the top three barriers perceived as being responsible for limiting their national availability. Applicability was assessed overall, per World Bank gross national income (GNI) level, and per guideline. A total of 875 guideline recommendations on general cardiology was extracted. Responses were received from 64 of 102 (62.7%) NCSs. On average, 71 center dot 6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 68.6-74.6] of the actions were fully available, 9.9% (95% CI: 8.7-11.1) mostly/often available, 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.0) mostly/often unavailable, and 11 center dot 8% (95% CI: 9.5-14.1) fully unavailable. In low-income countries (LICs), substantially more actions were fully unavailable [29 center dot 4% (95% CI: 22.6-36.3)] compared with high-income countries [HICs, countries 2.4% (95% CI: 1.2-3.7); P < 0.05]. Nevertheless, a proportion of actions with the lowest availability scores were often fully or mostly unavailable independent of GNIs. Actions were most often not available due to lack of reimbursement and other financial barriers. Conclusion: Local implementation of ESC guidelines on general cardiology is high in HICs and low in LICs , being inversely correlated with country gross national incomes. Show less
Background: Current cardiovascular risk assessment in people living with HIV is based on general risk assessment tools; however, whether these tools can be applied in sub-Saharan African... Show moreBackground: Current cardiovascular risk assessment in people living with HIV is based on general risk assessment tools; however, whether these tools can be applied in sub-Saharan African populations has been questioned.Objectives: The study aimed to assess cardiovascular risk classification of common cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models compared to the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) 2010 and 2016 models in people living with HIV.Method: Cardiovascular disease risk was estimated by Framingham Cardiovascular and Heart Disease (FHS-CVD, FHS-CHD), Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) and D:A:D 2010 and 2016 risk prediction models for HIV-infected participants of the Ndlovu Cohort Study, Limpopo, rural South Africa. Participants were classified to be at low (< 10%), moderate (10% – 20%), or high-risk (> 20%) of CVD within 10 years for general CVD and five years for D:A:D models. Kappa statistics were used to determine agreement between CVD risk prediction models. Subgroup analysis was performed according to age.Results: The analysis comprised 735 HIV-infected individuals, predominantly women (56.7%), average age 43.9 (8.8) years. The median predicted CVD risk for D:A:D 2010 and FHS-CVD was 4% and for ASCVD and FHS-CHD models, 3%. For the D:A:D 2016 risk prediction model, the figure was 5%. High 10-year CVD risk was predicted for 2.9%, 0.5%, 0.7%, 3.1% and 6.6% of the study participants by FHS-CVD, FHS-CHD, ASCVD, and D:A:D 2010 and 2016. Kappa statistics ranged from 0.34 for ASCVD to 0.60 for FHS-CVD as compared to the D:A:D 2010 risk prediction model.Conclusion: Overall, predicted CVD risk is low in this population. Compared to D:A:D 2010, CVD risk estimated by the FHS-CVD model showed similar overall results for risk classification. With the exception of the D:A:D model, all other risk prediction models classified fewer people to be at high estimated CVD risk. Prospective studies are needed to develop and validate CVD risk algorithms in people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Show less
Background: Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) agonists may have favorable outcomes on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. This study serves as proof of concept to evaluate whether... Show moreBackground: Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR) agonists may have favorable outcomes on non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. This study serves as proof of concept to evaluate whether dual PPAR-alpha/gamma agonists improve non-invasive tests of liver steatosis and fibrosis. Methods: This is a post-hoc analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-center trial comprising 7226 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and recent coronary artery disease randomized to receive aleglitazar, a PPAR-alpha/gamma agonists, or placebo for two years. Main outcomes were change in non-invasive tests for liver steatosis and fibrosis: Liver Fat Score (LFS), Liver Accumulation Product (LAP), Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), and NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS). Results: LFS, LAP and FIB-4 decreased upon treatment, whereas scores in the placebo group remained the same or increased (P<0.001). NFS responded differently but remained consistently lower than placebo. In the treatment group more participants shifted to a lower FIB-4 and NFS category, or improved in respect to the LAP cut-off values compared to the placebo group (P<0.001 for FIB-4 and LAP, P<0.004 for NFS). LFS had a low discriminative power in this study. Conclusion: This post-hoc analysis showed improvement of non-invasive tests of liver steatosis and fibrosis after starting dual PPAR-alpha/gamma agonist treatment, adding to the evidence that this pathway has potential in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease treatment. Show less
Laurijssen, S.J.M.; Graaf, R. van der; Dijk, W.B. van; Schuit, E.; Groenwold, R.H.H.; Grobbee, D.E.; Vries, M.C. de 2022
Background Informed consent is one of the cornerstones of biomedical research with human subjects. Research ethics committees may allow for a modification or a waiver of consent when the research... Show moreBackground Informed consent is one of the cornerstones of biomedical research with human subjects. Research ethics committees may allow for a modification or a waiver of consent when the research has social value, involves minimal risk, and if consent is impractical to obtain. While the conditions of social value and minimal risk have received ample attention in research ethics literature, the impractical condition remains unclear. There seem to be different interpretations of the meaning of impractical within academic literature. To address this lack of clarity, we performed a systematic review on the interpretation of impractical. Methods First, we examined international research ethics guidelines on their usage and interpretation of impractical. Next, we used international ethical guidelines to identify synonyms of the term "impractical." Accordingly, PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for articles that included "informed consent" and "impractical" or one of its synonyms. Results We found that there were only a few international ethics guidelines that described what could be considered impractical. Out of 2329 identified academic articles, 42 were included. Impractical was used to describe four different conditions: (1) obtaining informed consent becomes too demanding for researchers, (2) obtaining informed consent leads to invalid study outcomes, (3) obtaining informed consent harms the participant, and (4) obtaining informed consent is meaningless for the participant. Conclusion There are conditions that render conventional informed consent truly impractical, such as untraceable participants or harm for participants. At the same time, researchers have a moral responsibility to design an infrastructure in which consent can be obtained, even if they face hardship in obtaining consent. In addition, researchers should seek to minimize harm inflicted upon participants when harm may occur as a result of the consent procedure. Invalidity of research due to consent issues should not be regarded as impractical but as a condition that limits the social value of research. Further research is essential for when a waiver of informed consent based on impractical is also reasonable. Show less
The prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and the more severe and inflammatory type, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), is increasing rapidly. Especially in high-risk patients,... Show moreThe prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and the more severe and inflammatory type, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), is increasing rapidly. Especially in high-risk patients, that is those with obesity, metabolic syndrome, and type 2 diabetes mellitus, the prevalence of NAFLD can be as high as 80% while NASH may be present in 20% of these subjects. With the worldwide increase of obesity, it is most likely that these numbers will rise. Since advanced stages of NAFLD and NASH are strongly associated with morbidity and mortality-in particular, cardiovascular disease, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma-it is of great importance to identify subjects at risk. A great variety of noninvasive tests has been published to diagnose NAFLD and NASH, especially using blood- and imaging-based tests. Liver biopsy remains the gold standard for NAFLD/NASH. This review aims to summarize the different mechanisms leading to NASH and liver fibrosis, the different noninvasive liver tests to diagnose and evaluate patients with severe obesity. Show less
Dijk, W.B. van; Fiolet, A.T.L.; Schuit, E.; Sammani, A.; Groenhof, T.K.J.; Graaf, R. van der; ... ; Mosterd, A. 2021
Objective: This study aimed to validate trial patient eligibility screening and baseline data collection using text-mining in electronic healthcare records (EHRs), comparing the results to those of... Show moreObjective: This study aimed to validate trial patient eligibility screening and baseline data collection using text-mining in electronic healthcare records (EHRs), comparing the results to those of an international trial.Study Design and Setting: In three medical centers with different EHR vendors, EHR-based text-mining was used to automatically screen patients for trial eligibility and extract baseline data on nineteen characteristics. First, the yield of screening with automated EHR text-mining search was compared with manual screening by research personnel. Second, the accuracy of extracted baseline data by EHR text mining was compared to manual data entry by research personnel.Results: Of the 92,466 patients visiting the out-patient cardiology departments, 568 (0.6%) were enrolled in the trial during its recruitment period using manual screening methods. Automated EHR data screening of all patients showed that the number of patients needed to screen could be reduced by 73,863 (79.9%). The remaining 18,603 (20.1%) contained 458 of the actual participants (82.4% of participants). In trial participants, automated EHR text-mining missed a median of 2.8% (Interquartile range [IQR] across all variables 0.4-8.5%) of all data points compared to manually collected data. The overall accuracy of automatically extracted data was 88.0% (IQR 84.7-92.8%).Conclusion: Automatically extracting data from EHRs using text-mining can be used to identify trial participants and to collect baseline information. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. Show less
Background: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods: We... Show moreBackground: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Methods: We systematically collated data from randomized, controlled trials. cIMT was assessed as the mean value at the common-carotid-artery; if unavailable, the maximum value at the common-carotid-artery or other cIMT measures were used. The primary outcome was a combined CVD end point defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, or fatal CVD. We estimated intervention effects on cIMT progression and incident CVD for each trial, before relating the 2 using a Bayesian meta-regression approach. Results: We analyzed data of 119 randomized, controlled trials involving 100 667 patients (mean age 62 years, 42% female). Over an average follow-up of 3.7 years, 12 038 patients developed the combined CVD end point. Across all interventions, each 10 mu m/y reduction of cIMT progression resulted in a relative risk for CVD of 0.91 (95% Credible Interval, 0.87-0.94), with an additional relative risk for CVD of 0.92 (0.87-0.97) being achieved independent of cIMT progression. Taken together, we estimated that interventions reducing cIMT progression by 10, 20, 30, or 40 mu m/y would yield relative risks of 0.84 (0.75-0.93), 0.76 (0.67-0.85), 0.69 (0.59-0.79), or 0.63 (0.52-0.74), respectively. Results were similar when grouping trials by type of intervention, time of conduct, time to ultrasound follow-up, availability of individual-participant data, primary versus secondary prevention trials, type of cIMT measurement, and proportion of female patients. Conclusions: The extent of intervention effects on cIMT progression predicted the degree of CVD risk reduction. This provides a missing link supporting the usefulness of cIMT progression as a surrogate marker for CVD risk in clinical trials. Show less
Cosentino, F.; Grant, P.J.; Aboyans, V.; Bailey, C.J.; Ceriello, A.; Delgado, V.; ... ; European Assoc Study Diabet EASD 2020
Neurodegenerative and neurovascular diseases lead to heterogeneous brain abnormalities. A combined analysis of these abnormalities by phenotypes of the brain might give a more accurate... Show moreNeurodegenerative and neurovascular diseases lead to heterogeneous brain abnormalities. A combined analysis of these abnormalities by phenotypes of the brain might give a more accurate representation of the underlying aetiology. We aimed to identify different MRI phenotypes of the brain and assessed the risk of future stroke and mortality within these subgroups. In 1003 patients (59 +/- 10 years) from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease-Magnetic Resonance (SMART-MR) study, different quantitative 1.5T brain MRI markers were used in a hierarchical clustering analysis to identify 11 distinct subgroups with a different distribution in brain MRI markers and cardiovascular risk factors, and a different risk of stroke (Cox regression: from no increased risk compared to the reference group with relatively few brain abnormalities to HR = 10.34; 95% CI 3.80 <-> 28.12 for the multi-burden subgroup) and mortality (from no increased risk compared to the reference group to HR = 4.00; 95% CI 2.50 <-> 6.40 for the multi-burden subgroup). In conclusion, within a group of patients with manifest arterial disease, we showed that different MRI phenotypes of the brain can be identified and that these were associated with different risks of future stroke and mortality. These MRI phenotypes can possibly classify individual patients and assess their risk of future stroke and mortality. Show less
Ghaznawi, R.; Geerlings, M.I.; Jaarsma-Coes, M.G.; Zwartbol, M.H.T.; Kuijf, H.J.; Graaf, Y. van der; ... ; SMART Study Grp 2019
Lacunes and white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are features of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) that are associated with poor functional outcomes. However, how the two are related remains... Show moreLacunes and white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are features of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) that are associated with poor functional outcomes. However, how the two are related remains unclear. In this study, we examined the association between lacunes and several WMH features in patients with a history of vascular disease. A total of 999 patients (mean age 59 +/- 10 years) with a 1.5 T brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan were included from the SMART-MR study. Lacunes were scored visually and WMH features (volume, subtype and shape) were automatically determined. Analyses consisted of linear and Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, and total intracranial volume (ICV). Patients with lacunes (n = 188; 19%) had greater total (B = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.86 to 1.21), periventricular/confluent (B = 1.08, 95% CI: 0.89 to 1.27), and deep (B = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.44 to 0.97) natural log-transformed WMH volumes than patients without lacunes. Patients with lacunes had an increased risk of confluent type WMHs (RR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.98 to 2.92) and deep WMHs (RR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.62) and had a more irregular shape of confluent WMHs than patients without lacunes, independent of total WMH volume. In conclusion, we found that lacunes on MRI were associated with WMH features that correspond to more severe small vessel changes, mortality, and poor functional outcomes. Show less
Background: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9.Methods: Published... Show moreBackground: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9.Methods: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration.Results: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable.Conclusions: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate. Show less
Angelantonio, E. di; Kaptoge, S.; Pennells, L.; Bacquer, D. de; Cooney, M.T.; Kavousi, M.; ... ; Kim 2019
Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk... Show moreBackground To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions.Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance.Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt.Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
Dijk, W.B. van; Grobbee, D.E.; Vries, M.C. de; Groenwold, R.H.H.; Graaf, R. van der; Schuit, E. 2019
Aims:Reviews of clinical practice guidelines have repeatedly concluded that only a minority of guideline recommendations are supported by high-quality evidence from randomised controlled trials.... Show moreAims:Reviews of clinical practice guidelines have repeatedly concluded that only a minority of guideline recommendations are supported by high-quality evidence from randomised controlled trials. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether these findings apply to the whole cardiovascular evidence base or specific recommendation types and actions. Methods All recommendations from current European Society of Cardiology guidelines were extracted with their class (I, treatment is beneficial; II, treatment is possibly beneficial; III, treatment is harmful) and level of evidence (A, multiple randomised controlled trials/meta-analyses; B, single randomised controlled trials/large observational studies; C, expert opinion/small studies). Recommendations were categorised by type (therapeutic, diagnostic, other) and actions (e.g. pharmaceutical intervention/non-invasive imaging/test). Results:In total, 3531 recommendations (median 128, interquartile range 108-150) were extracted from 27 guidelines. Therapeutic recommendations comprised 2545 (72.1%) recommendations, 411 (16.1%) were supported by level of evidence A, 833 (32.7%) by B and 1301 (51.1%) by C. Class I/III (should/should not) recommendations on minimally invasive interventions were most supported by level of evidence A (55/183, 30.1%) (B [70/183, 38.3%], C [58/183, 31.7%]), while class I/III recommendations on open surgical interventions were least supported by level of evidence A (15/164, 9.1%) (B [34/164, 20.7%], C [115/164, 70.1%]). Of all (831, 23.5%) diagnostic recommendations, just 44/503 (8.7%) class I/III recommendations were supported by level of evidence A (B (125/503, 24.9%), C (334/503, 66.4%)). Conclusion:Evidence levels supporting European Society of Cardiology guideline recommendations differ widely between recommendation types and actions. Attributing to this variability are different evidence requirements, therapeutic/diagnostic recommendations, different feasibility levels for trials (e.g. open surgical/pharmacological) and many off-topic/policy recommendations based on expert opinion. Show less
Sharif, S.; Groenwold, R.H.H.; Graaf, Y. van der; Berkelmans, G.F.N.; Cramer, M.J.; Visseren, F.L.J.; ... ; SMART Study Grp 2019
Aim To quantify the magnitude and specific contributions of known cardiovascular risk factors leading to higher cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality caused by type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods... Show moreAim To quantify the magnitude and specific contributions of known cardiovascular risk factors leading to higher cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality caused by type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods Mediation analysis was performed to assess the relative contributions of known classical risk factors for vascular disease in T2D (insulin resistance, systolic blood pressure, renal function, LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides and micro-albuminuria), and what proportion of the effect of T2D on cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality these factors mediate in the Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort consisting of 1910 T2D patients. Results Only 35% (95% CI 15-71%) of the excess cardiovascular risk caused by T2D is mediated by the classical cardiovascular risk factors. The largest mediated effect was through insulin resistance [proportion of mediated effect (PME) 18%, 95% CI 3-37%], followed by elevated triglycerides (PME 8%, 95% CI 4-14%) and micro-albuminuria (PME 7%, 95% CI 3-17%). Only 42% (95% CI 18-73%) of the excess mortality risk was mediated by the classical risk factors considered. The largest mediated effect was by micro-albuminuria (PME 18%, 95% CI 10-29%) followed by insulin resistance (PME 15%, 95% CI 1-33%). Conclusion A substantial amount of the increased cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality caused by T2D cannot be explained by traditional vascular risk factors. Future research should focus on identifying non-classical pathways that might further explain the increased cardiovascular and mortality risk caused by T2D. Show less
