Reliable quantitative vegetation reconstructions for Europe during the Holocene are crucialto improving our understanding of landscape dynamics, making it possible to assess the past effectsof... Show moreReliable quantitative vegetation reconstructions for Europe during the Holocene are crucialto improving our understanding of landscape dynamics, making it possible to assess the past effectsof environmental variables and land-use change on ecosystems and biodiversity, and mitigatingtheir effects in the future. We present here the most spatially extensive and temporally continuouspollen-based reconstructions of plant cover in Europe (at a spatial resolution of 1 1) over theHolocene (last 11.7 ka BP) using the ‘Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites’(REVEALS) model. This study has three main aims. First, to present the most accurate and reliablegeneration of REVEALS reconstructions across Europe so far. This has been achieved by including alarger number of pollen records compared to former analyses, in particular from the Mediterraneanarea. Second, to discuss methodological issues in the quantification of past land cover by usingalternative datasets of relative pollen productivities (RPPs), one of the key input parameters ofREVEALS, to test model sensitivity. Finally, to validate our reconstructions with the global forestchange dataset. The results suggest that the RPPs.st1 (31 taxa) dataset is best suited to producingregional vegetation cover estimates for Europe. These reconstructions offer a long-term perspectiveproviding unique possibilities to explore spatial-temporal changes in past land cover and biodiversity. Show less
Background Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of major gastrointestinal surgery with an impact on short- and long-term survival. No validated system for risk... Show moreBackground Postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) is a common complication of major gastrointestinal surgery with an impact on short- and long-term survival. No validated system for risk stratification exists for this patient group. This study aimed to validate externally a prognostic model for AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery in two multicentre cohort studies.Methods The Outcomes After Kidney injury in Surgery (OAKS) prognostic model was developed to predict risk of AKI in the 7 days after surgery using six routine datapoints (age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker). Validation was performed within two independent cohorts: a prospective multicentre, international study ('IMAGINE') of patients undergoing elective colorectal surgery (2018); and a retrospective regional cohort study ('Tayside') in major abdominal surgery (2011-2015). Multivariable logistic regression was used to predict risk of AKI, with multiple imputation used to account for data missing at random. Prognostic accuracy was assessed for patients at high risk (greater than 20 per cent) of postoperative AKI.Results In the validation cohorts, 12.9 per cent of patients (661 of 5106) in IMAGINE and 14.7 per cent (106 of 719 patients) in Tayside developed 7-day postoperative AKI. Using the OAKS model, 558 patients (9.6 per cent) were classified as high risk. Less than 10 per cent of patients classified as low-risk developed AKI in either cohort (negative predictive value greater than 0.9). Upon external validation, the OAKS model retained an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve of range 0.655-0.681 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.596 to 0.714; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.659 to 0.703), sensitivity values range 0.323-0.352 (IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.281 to 0.368; Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.253 to 0.461), and specificity range 0.881-0.890 (Tayside 95 per cent c.i. 0.853 to 0.905; IMAGINE 95 per cent c.i. 0.881 to 0.899).Conclusion The OAKS prognostic model can identify patients who are not at high risk of postoperative AKI after gastrointestinal surgery with high specificity.Presented to Association of Surgeons in Training (ASiT) International Conference 2018 (Edinburgh, UK), European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) International Conference 2018 (Nice, France), SARS (Society of Academic and Research Surgery) 2020 (Virtual, UK). Show less
Bartlett, J.M.S.; Brookes, C.L.; Robson, T.; Velde, C.J.H. van de; Billingham, L.J.; Campbell, F.M.; ... ; Rea, D. 2011
Purpose The Tamoxifen and Exemestane Adjuvant Multinational (TEAM) trial included a prospectively planned pathology substudy testing the predictive value of progesterone receptor (PgR) expression... Show morePurpose The Tamoxifen and Exemestane Adjuvant Multinational (TEAM) trial included a prospectively planned pathology substudy testing the predictive value of progesterone receptor (PgR) expression for outcome of estrogen receptor-positive (ER-positive) early breast cancer treated with exemestane versus tamoxifen. Patients and Methods Pathology blocks from 4,781 TEAM patients randomly assigned to exemestane versus tamoxifen followed by exemestane for 5 years of total therapy were collected centrally, and tissue microarrays were constructed from samples from 4,598 patients. Quantitative analysis of hormone receptors (ER and PgR) was performed by using image analysis and immunohistochemistry, and the results were linked to outcome data from the main TEAM trial and analyzed relative to disease-free survival and treatment. Results Of 4,325 eligible ER-positive patients, 23% were PgR-poor (Allred < 4) and 77% were PgR-rich (Allred >= 5). No treatment-by-marker effect for PgR was observed for exemestane versus tamoxifen (PgR-rich hazard ratio [HR], 0.83; 95% CI, 0.65 to 1.05; PgR-poor HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.61 to 1.19; P = .88 for interaction). Both PgR and ER expression were associated with patient prognosis in univariate (PgR HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.65; P < .001; ER HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.86; P = .002), and multivariate analyses (P < .001 and P = .001, respectively). A trend toward a treatment-by-marker effect for ER-rich patients was observed. Conclusion Preferential exemestane versus tamoxifen treatment benefit was not predicted by PgR expression; conversely, patients with ER-rich tumors may derive additional benefit from exemestane. Quantitative analysis of ER and PgR expression provides highly significant information on risk of early relapse (within 1 to 3 years) during treatment. Show less
