OBJECTIVES: To produce an efficient and practically implementable method, based on primary care data exclusively, to identify patients with complex care needs who have problems in several health... Show moreOBJECTIVES: To produce an efficient and practically implementable method, based on primary care data exclusively, to identify patients with complex care needs who have problems in several health domains and are experiencing a mismatch of care. The Johns Hopkins ACG System was explored as a tool for identification, using its Aggregated Diagnosis Group (ADG) categories. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study using general practitioners' electronic health records combined with hospital data. METHODS: A prediction model for patients with complex care needs was developed using a primary care population of 105,345 individuals. Dependent variables in the model included age, sex, and the 32 ADGs. The prediction model was externally validated on 30,793 primary care patients. Discrimination and calibrations were assessed by computing C statistics and by visual inspection of the calibration plot, respectively. RESULTS: Our model was able to discriminate very well between complex and noncomplex patients (C statistic = 0.9; 95% CI, 0.88-0.92), whereas the calibration plot suggests that the model provides overestimates of complex patients. CONCLUSIONS: With this study, the ACG System has proven to be a useful tool in the identification of patients with complex care needs in primary care, opening up possibilities for tailored interventions of care management for this complex group of patients. Utilizing ADGs, the prediction model that we developed had a very good discriminatory ability to identify those complex patients. However, the of the model still needs improvement. Show less
Girwar, S.A.M.; Verloop, J.C.; Fiocco, M.; Sutch, S.P.; Numans, M.E.; Bruijnzeels, M.A. 2022
OBJECTIVES: To produce an efficient and practically implementable method, based on primary care data exclusively, to identify patients with complex care needs who have problems in several health... Show moreOBJECTIVES: To produce an efficient and practically implementable method, based on primary care data exclusively, to identify patients with complex care needs who have problems in several health domains and are experiencing a mismatch of care. The Johns Hopkins ACG System was explored as a tool for identification, using its Aggregated Diagnosis Group (ADG) categories. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study using general practitioners' electronic health records combined with hospital data. METHODS: A prediction model for patients with complex care needs was developed using a primary care population of 105,345 individuals. Dependent variables in the model included age, sex, and the 32 ADGs. The prediction model was externally validated on 30,793 primary care patients. Discrimination and calibrations were assessed by computing C statistics and by visual inspection of the calibration plot, respectively. RESULTS: Our model was able to discriminate very well between complex and noncomplex patients (C statistic = 0.9; 95% CI, 0.88-0.92), whereas the calibration plot suggests that the model provides overestimates of complex patients. CONCLUSIONS: With this study, the ACG System has proven to be a useful tool in the identification of patients with complex care needs in primary care, opening up possibilities for tailored interventions of care management for this complex group of patients. Utilizing ADGs, the prediction model that we developed had a very good discriminatory ability to identify those complex patients. However, the of the model still needs improvement. Show less
Girwar, S.A.M.; Verloop, J.C.; Fiocco, M.; Sutch, S.P.; Numans, M.E.; Bruijnzeels, M.A. 2022
OBJECTIVES: To produce an efficient and practically implementable method, based on primary care data exclusively, to identify patients with complex care needs who have problems in several health... Show moreOBJECTIVES: To produce an efficient and practically implementable method, based on primary care data exclusively, to identify patients with complex care needs who have problems in several health domains and are experiencing a mismatch of care. The Johns Hopkins ACG System was explored as a tool for identification, using its Aggregated Diagnosis Group (ADG) categories. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study using general practitioners' electronic health records combined with hospital data. METHODS: A prediction model for patients with complex care needs was developed using a primary care population of 105,345 individuals. Dependent variables in the model included age, sex, and the 32 ADGs. The prediction model was externally validated on 30,793 primary care patients. Discrimination and calibrations were assessed by computing C statistics and by visual inspection of the calibration plot, respectively. RESULTS: Our model was able to discriminate very well between complex and noncomplex patients (C statistic = 0.9; 95% CI, 0.88-0.92), whereas the calibration plot suggests that the model provides overestimates of complex patients. CONCLUSIONS: With this study, the ACG System has proven to be a useful tool in the identification of patients with complex care needs in primary care, opening up possibilities for tailored interventions of care management for this complex group of patients. Utilizing ADGs, the prediction model that we developed had a very good discriminatory ability to identify those complex patients. However, the of the model still needs improvement. Show less
Girwar, S.A.M.; Jabroer, R.; Fiocco, M.; Sutch, S.P.; Numans, M.E.; Bruijnzeels, M.A. 2021
Background and AimsIn our current healthcare situation, burden on healthcare services is increasing, with higher costs and increased utilization. Structured population health management has been... Show moreBackground and AimsIn our current healthcare situation, burden on healthcare services is increasing, with higher costs and increased utilization. Structured population health management has been developed as an approach to balance quality with increasing costs. This approach identifies sub-populations with comparable health risks, to tailor interventions for those that will benefit the most. Worldwide, the use of routine healthcare data extracted from electronic health registries for risk stratification approaches is increasing. Different risk stratification tools are used on different levels of the healthcare continuum. In this systematic literature review, we aimed to explore which tools are used in primary healthcare settings and assess their performance.MethodsWe performed a systematic literature review of studies applying risk stratification tools with health outcomes in primary care populations. Studies in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries published in English-language journals were included. Search engines were utilized with keywords, for example, “primary care,” “risk stratification,” and “model.” Risk stratification tools were compared based on different measures: area under the curve (AUC) and C-statistics for dichotomous outcomes and R2 for continuous outcomes.ResultsThe search provided 4718 articles. Specific election criteria such as primary care populations, generic health utilization outcomes, and routinely collected data sources identified 61 articles, reporting on 31 different models. The three most frequently applied models were the Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG, n = 23), the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI, n = 19), and the Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC, n = 7). Most AUC and C-statistic values were above 0.7, with ACG showing slightly improved scores compared with the CCI and HCC (typically between 0.6 and 0.7).ConclusionBased on statistical performance, the validity of the ACG was the highest, followed by the CCI and the HCC. The ACG also appeared to be the most flexible, with the use of different international coding systems and measuring a wider variety of health outcomes. Show less
Girwar, S.A.M.; Fiocco, M.; Sutch, S.P.; Numans, M.E.; Bruijnzeels, M.A. 2021
BackgroundWithin the Dutch health care system the focus is shifting from a disease oriented approach to a more population based approach. Since every inhabitant in the Netherlands is registered... Show moreBackgroundWithin the Dutch health care system the focus is shifting from a disease oriented approach to a more population based approach. Since every inhabitant in the Netherlands is registered with one general practice, this offers a unique possibility to perform Population Health Management analyses based on general practitioners' (GP) registries. The Johns Hopkins Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG) System is an internationally used method for predictive population analyses. The model categorizes individuals based on their complete health profile, taking into account age, gender, diagnoses and medication. However, the ACG system was developed with non-Dutch data. Consequently, for wider implementation in Dutch general practice, the system needs to be validated in the Dutch healthcare setting. In this paper we show the results of the first use of the ACG system on Dutch GP data. The aim of this study is to explore how well the ACG system can distinguish between different levels of GP healthcare utilization.MethodsTo reach our aim, two variables of the ACG System, the Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADG) and the mutually exclusive ACG categories were explored. The population for this pilot analysis consisted of 23,618 persons listed with five participating general practices within one region in the Netherlands. ACG analyses were performed based on historical Electronic Health Records data from 2014 consisting of primary care diagnoses and pharmaceutical data. Logistic regression models were estimated and AUC's were calculated to explore the diagnostic value of the models including ACGs and ADGs separately with GP healthcare utilization as the dependent variable. The dependent variable was categorized using four different cut-off points: zero, one, two and three visits per year.ResultsThe ACG and ADG models performed as well as models using International Classification of Primary Care chapters, regarding the association with GP utilization. AUC values were between 0.79 and 0.85. These models performed better than the base model (age and gender only) which showed AUC values between 0.64 and 0.71.ConclusionThe results of this study show that the ACG system is a useful tool to stratify Dutch primary care populations with GP healthcare utilization as the outcome variable. Show less
