Background: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment... Show moreBackground: The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model for 10-year overall survival (OS) after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) based on patient, tumour and treatment characteristics.Methods: Consecutive patients after complete resection of CRLM were included from two centres (1992-2019). A prediction model providing 10-year OS probabilities was developed using Cox regression analysis, including KRAS, BRAF and histopathological growth patterns. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using cross-validation. A web-based calculator was built to predict individual 10-year OS probabilities.Results: A total of 4112 patients were included. The estimated 10-year OS was 30% (95% CI 29 -32). Fifteen patient, tumour and treatment characteristics were independent prognostic factors for 10-year OS; age, gender, location and nodal status of the primary tumour, disease-free interval, number and diameter of CRLM, preoperative CEA, resection margin, extrahepatic disease, KRAS and BRAF mutation status, histopathological growth patterns, perioperative systemic chemotherapy and hepatic arterial infusion pump chemotherapy. The discrimination at 10-years was 0.73 for both centres. A simplified risk score identified four risk groups with a 10-year OS of 57%, 38%, 24%, and 12%.Conclusions: Ten-year OS after resection of CRLM is best predicted with a model including 15 patient, tumour, and treatment characteristics. The web-based calculator can be used to inform patients. This model serves as a benchmark to determine the prognostic value of novel biomarkers. (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Show less
Background: The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the performance of prognostic survival models for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) when validated in an external dataset.... Show moreBackground: The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the performance of prognostic survival models for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) when validated in an external dataset. Furthermore, it sought to identify common prognostic factors across models, and assess methodological quality of the studies in which the models were developed.Methods: The PRISMA guidelines were followed. External validation studies of prognostic models for patients with iCCA were searched in 5 databases. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration.Results: Thirteen external validation studies were identified, validating 18 different prognostic models. The Wang model was the sole model with good performance (C-index above 0.70) for overall survival. This model incorporated tumor size and number, lymph node metastasis, direct invasion into surrounding tissue, vascular invasion, Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Methodological quality was poor in 11/12 statistical models. The Wang model had the highest score with 13 out of 17 points.Conclusion: The Wang model for prognosis after resection of iCCA has good quality and good performance at external validation, while most prognostic models for iCCA have been developed with poor methodological quality and show poor performance at external validation. Show less
